Modelling the runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Germany)

International audienceThe paper presents two different levels of regionalization used to represent the spatial distribution of landscape parameters for the hydrological modelling of the Mulde. The aim of this investigation was to find out how the discretisation level affects quality of modelling with the hydrological modelling system J2000. Furthermore we improved our understanding of the applicability and reliability of the distributed model J2000 on the macro-scale. Spatial information was aggregated in two different discretisation levels: subbasins (SB) and hydrological response polygons (HRP). A J2000 simulation was carried out for both discretisation levels based on a 1 year calibration and a 3 year validation period. Simulations performed well for both levels of spatial discretisation. The results seemed to be better in the more complex discretisation approach, where the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was higher. We can conclude that our first results show more accurate simulations produced by the HRP discretisation approach, the visual inspection shows a better application of the SB approach to the reproduction of the base flow

Quasi 2D hydrodynamic modelling of the flooded hinterland due to dyke breaching on the Elbe River

In flood modeling, many 1D and 2D combination and 2D models are used to simulate diversion of water from rivers through dyke breaches into the hinterland for extreme flood events. However, these models are too demanding in data requirements and computational resources which is an important consideration when uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo techniques is used to complement the modeling exercise. The goal of this paper is to show the development of a quasi-2D modeling approach, which still calculates the dynamic wave in 1D but the discretisation of the computational units are in 2D, allowing a better spatial representation of the flow in the hinterland due to dyke breaching without a large additional expenditure on data pre-processing and computational time. A 2D representation of the flow and velocity fields is required to model sediment and micro-pollutant transport. The model DYNHYD (1D hydrodynamics) from the WASP5 modeling package was used as a basis for the simulations. The model was extended to incorporate the quasi-2D approach and a Monte-Carlo Analysis was used to conduct a flood sensitivity analysis to determine the sensitivity of parameters and boundary conditions to the resulting water flow. An extreme flood event on the Elbe River, Germany, with a possible dyke breach area was used as a test case. The results show a good similarity with those obtained from another 1D/2D modeling study

Integrating water quality models in the High Level Architecture (HLA) environment

International audienceHLA (High Level Architecture) is a computer architecture for constructing distributed simulations. It facilitates interoperability among different simulations and simulation types and promotes reuse of simulation software modules. The core of the HLA is the Run-Time Infrastructure (RTI) that provides services to start and stop a simulation execution, to transfer data between interoperating simulations, to control the amount and routing of data that is passed, and to co-ordinate the passage of simulated time among the simulations. The authors are not aware of any HLA applications in the field of water resources management. The development of such a system is underway at the UFZ -Centre for Environmental Research, Germany, in which the simulations of a hydrodynamic model (DYNHYD), eutrophication model (EUTRO) and sediment and micro-pollutant transport model (TOXI) are interlinked and co-ordinated by the HLA RTI environment. This configuration enables extensions such as (i) "cross-model" uncertainty analysis with Monte Carlo Analysis: time synchronisation allows EUTRO and TOXI simulations to be made after each successive simulation time step in DYNHYD, (ii) information transfer from EUTRO to TOXI to compute organic carbon fractions of particulate matter in TOXI, (iii) information transfer from TOXI to EUTRO to compute extinction coefficients in EUTRO and (iv) feedback from water quality simulations to the hydrodynamic modeling

Assessing flood risk for a rural detention area

International audienceFlood detention areas serve the primary purpose of controlled water storage during large flood events in order to decrease the flood risk downstream along the river. These areas are often used for agricultural production. While various damage estimation methods exist for urban areas, there are only a few, most often simpler approaches for loss estimation in rural areas. The loss assessment can provide an estimate of the financial provisions required for the farmers' compensation (e.g., in the context of cost-benefit analyses of detention measures). Flood risk is a combination of potential damage and probability of flooding. Losses in agricultural areas exhibit a strong seasonal pattern, and the flooding probability also has a seasonal variation. In the present study, flood risk is assessed for a planned detention area alongside the Elbe River in Germany based on two loss and probability estimation approaches of different time frames, namely a monthly and an annual approach. The results show that the overall potential damage in the proposed detention area amounts to approximately 40 000 ? a?1, with approximately equal losses for each of the main land uses, agriculture and road infrastructure. A sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of flooding (i.e., the frequency of operation of the detention area) has the largest impact on the overall flood risk

Aspects of seasonality and flood generating circulation patterns in a mountainous catchment in south-eastern Germany

International audienceAnalyses of discharge series, precipitation fields and flood producing atmospheric circulation patterns reveal that two governing flood regimes exist in the Mulde catchment in south-eastern Germany: frequent floods during the winter and less frequent but sometimes extreme floods during the summer. Differences in the statistical parameters skewness and coefficient of variation of the discharge data can be found from west to east and are discussed in the context of landscape parameters that influence the discharge. Annual maximum discharge series were assigned to the triggering Großwetterlage in order to evaluate which circulation patterns are likely to produce large floods. It can be shown that the cyclone Vb-weather regime generates the most extreme flood events in the Mulde catchment, whereas westerly winds produce frequently small floods. Vb-weather regimes do not always trigger large flood events in the study area, but large floods are mostly generated by these weather patterns. Based on these findings, it is necessary to revise the traditional flood frequency analysis approach and develop new approaches which can handle different flood triggering processes within the dataset

Model system development and uncertainty for the provisionary management of extreme floods in large river basins

International audienceA research project is introduced in which a modelling system is being developed to quantify risks of extreme flooding in large river basins. In the system, computer models and modules are coupled to simulate the functional chain: hydrology - hydraulics - polder diversion - dyke failure - flooding - damage estimate - risk assessment. In order to reduce uncertainty in flood frequency analyses, data sets are complimented with information from historical chronicles and artwork. Probable maximum precipitation and discharge are calculated to indicate upper bounds of meteorological and hydrological extremes. Uncertainty analysis is investigated for different degrees of model complexity and compared at different basin scales

The effectiveness of polder systems on peak discharge capping of floods along the middle reaches of the Elbe River in Germany

International audienceIn flood modelling, many one-dimensional (1-D) hydrodynamic models are too restricted in capturing the spatial differentiation of processes within a polder or system of polders and two-dimensional (2-D) models are very demanding in data requirements and computational resources. The latter is an important consideration when uncertainty analyses using the Monte Carlo techniques are to complement the modelling exercises. This paper describes the development of a quasi-2-D modeling approach, which still calculates the dynamic wave in 1-D but the discretisation of the computational units are in 2-D, allowing a better spatial representation of the flow in polders and avoiding large additional expenditure on data pre-processing and computational time. The model DYNHYD (1-D hydrodynamics) from the WASP5 modeling package was used as a basis for the simulations and extended to incorporate the quasi-2-D approach. A local sensitivity analysis shows the sensitivity of parameters and boundary conditions on the filling volume of polders and capping of the peak discharge in the main river system. Two flood events on the Elbe River, Germany were used to calibrate and test the model. The results show a good capping effect on the flood peak by the proposed systems. The effect of capping reduces as the flood wave propagates down stream from the polders (up to 0.5 cm of capping is decreased for each additional kilometer from the polder)

Risk assessment and mapping of extreme floods in non-dyked communities along the Elbe and Mulde Rivers

International audienceAssessing and mapping damage risk of floods for large river basins is still in its infancy. Damage risk is understood to be the combination of flood hazard and the vulnerability of communities to a flood of a particular return period. Risk is calculated and mapped for two communities in which dykes are not located for flood protection: Meissen on the Elbe River and Döbeln in the Mulde catchment. Different methodologies for the computation of flood depth and inundation extent of varying flood return periods (hazard) are compared. Exposure and relative damage to the flooding (vulnerability) based on land-use coverages of different scale are also compared and discussed. A property asset coverage completes the data requirements for the construction of the risk maps. Recommendations for continued research on risk assessments of large river basins conclude the study

Large-scale hydrological modelling and the Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive of the European Union - 10th Workshop on Large-Scale Hydrological Modelling

In December 2000, the Water Framework Directive (WFD) of the European Union (EU) was enforced (EC, 2000) to provide a new legislative basis for water management in Europe. The main goal of the WFD is the implementation of river basin water management plans in which comprehensive studies of the current status of the surface and ground water bodies must be reported and management programs must be enforced with cost-effective measures with which a good ecological condition of the water bodies can be attained and sustained