Bayesian uncertainty assessment of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins for conceptual rainfall-runoff models

Urbanization and the resulting land-use change strongly affect the water cycle and runoff-processes in watersheds. Unfortunately, small urban watersheds, which are most affected by urban sprawl, are mostly ungauged. This makes it intrinsically difficult to assess the consequences of urbanization. Most of all, it is unclear how to reliably assess the predictive uncertainty given the structural deficits of the applied models. In this study, we therefore investigate the uncertainty of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins from structurally uncertain rainfall-runoff models. To this end, we suggest a procedure to explicitly account for input uncertainty and model structure deficits using Bayesian statistics with a continuous-time autoregressive error model. In addition, we propose a concise procedure to derive prior parameter distributions from base data and successfully apply the methodology to an urban catchment in Warsaw, Poland. Based on our results, we are able to demonstrate that the autoregressive error model greatly helps to meet the statistical assumptions and to compute reliable prediction intervals. In our study, we found that predicted peak flows were up to 7 times higher than observations. This was reduced to 5 times with Bayesian updating, using only few discharge measurements. In addition, our analysis suggests that imprecise rainfall information and model structure deficits contribute mostly to the total prediction uncertainty. In the future, flood predictions in ungauged basins will become more important due to ongoing urbanization as well as anthropogenic and climatic changes. Thus, providing reliable measures of uncertainty is crucial to support decision making

Gastric intramucosal pH-guided therapy in patients after elective repair of infrarenal abdominal aneurysms: is it beneficial?

Objective: To determine if gastric intramucosal pH (pHi)-guided therapy reduces the number of complications and length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) or the hospital after elective repair of infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms. Design: Prospective, randomized study. Setting: Surgical intensive care unit (SICU) of a University Hospital. Patients: Fifty-five consecutive patients randomized to group 1 (pHi-guided therapy) or to group 2 (control). Interventions: Patients of group 1 with a pHi of lower than 7.32 were treated by means of a prospective protocol in order to increase their pHi to 7.32 or more. Measurements and results: pHi was determined in both groups on admission to the SICU and thereafter at 6-h intervals. In group 2, the treating physicians were blinded for the pHi values. Complications, APACHE II scores, duration of endotracheal intubation, fluid and vasoactive drug treatment, treatment with vasoactive drugs, length of stay in the SICU and in the hospital and hospital mortality were recorded. There were no differences between groups in terms of the incidence of complications. We found no differences in APACHE II scores on admission, the duration of intubation, SICU or hospital stay, or hospital mortality. In the two groups the incidence of pHi values lower than 7.32 on admission to the SICU was comparable (41 % and 42 % in groups 1 and 2, respectively). Patients with pHi lower than 7.32 had more major complications during SICU stay (p<0.05), and periods more than 10 h of persistently low pHi values (< 7.32) were associated with a higher incidence of SICU complications (p<0.01). Conclusions: Low pHi values (<7.32) and their persistence are predictors of major complications. Treatment to elevate low pHi values does not improve postoperative outcome. Based on these data, we cannot recommend the routine use of gastric tonometers for pHi-guided therapy in these patients. Further studies are warranted to determine adequate treatment of low pHi values that results in beneficial effects on the patient's postoperative course and outcom

Time walkers and spatial dynamics of ageing information

The distribution of information is essential for living system's ability to coordinate and adapt. Random walkers are often used to model this distribution process and, in doing so, one effectively assumes that information maintains its relevance over time. But the value of information in social and biological systems often decay and must continuously be updated. To capture the spatial dynamics of ageing information, we introduce time walkers. A time walker moves like a random walker, but interacts with traces left by other walkers, some representing older information, some newer. The traces forms a navigable information landscape. We quantify the dynamical properties of time walkers moving on a two-dimensional lattice and the quality of the information landscape generated by their movements. We visualise the self-similar landscape as a river network, and show that searching in this landscape is superior to random searching and scales as the length of loop-erased random walks

Connectivity strategies to enhance the capacity of weight-bearing networks

The connectivity properties of a weight-bearing network are exploited to enhance it's capacity. We study a 2-d network of sites where the weight-bearing capacity of a given site depends on the capacities of the sites connected to it in the layers above. The network consists of clusters viz. a set of sites connected with each other with the largest such collection of sites being denoted as the maximal cluster. New connections are made between sites in successive layers using two distinct strategies. The key element of our strategies consists of adding as many disjoint clusters as possible to the sites on the trunk $T$ of the maximal cluster. The new networks can bear much higher weights than the original networks and have much lower failure rates. The first strategy leads to a greater enhancement of stability whereas the second leads to a greater enhancement of capacity compared to the original networks. The original network used here is a typical example of the branching hierarchical class. However the application of strategies similar to ours can yield useful results in other types of networks as well.Comment: 17 pages, 3 EPS files, 5 PS files, Phys. Rev. E (to appear

Energy and momentum of cylindrical gravitational waves. II

Recently Nathan Rosen and the present author obtained the energy and momentum densities of cylindrical gravitational waves in Einstein's prescription and found them to be finite and reasonable. In the present paper we calculate the same in prescriptions of Tolman as well as Landau and Lifshitz and discuss the results.Comment: 8 pages, LaTex, To appear in Pramana- J. Physic

Gravitational waves from supernova matter

We have performed a set of 11 three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamical core collapse supernova simulations in order to investigate the dependencies of the gravitational wave signal on the progenitor's initial conditions. We study the effects of the initial central angular velocity and different variants of neutrino transport. Our models are started up from a 15 solar mass progenitor and incorporate an effective general relativistic gravitational potential and a finite temperature nuclear equation of state. Furthermore, the electron flavour neutrino transport is tracked by efficient algorithms for the radiative transfer of massless fermions. We find that non- and slowly rotating models show gravitational wave emission due to prompt- and lepton driven convection that reveals details about the hydrodynamical state of the fluid inside the protoneutron stars. Furthermore we show that protoneutron stars can become dynamically unstable to rotational instabilities at T/|W| values as low as ~2 % at core bounce. We point out that the inclusion of deleptonization during the postbounce phase is very important for the quantitative GW prediction, as it enhances the absolute values of the gravitational wave trains up to a factor of ten with respect to a lepton-conserving treatment.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, accepted, to be published in a Classical and Quantum Gravity special issue for MICRA200

Eastern Pacific spreading rate fluctuation and its relation to Pacific area volcanic episodes

Sea-floor spreading rates from four locations along the Nazca-Pacific plate boundary and one along the Juan de Fuca-Pacific plate boundary show variations over the past 2.4 m.y., with decreasing rates prior to the Jaramillo to Olduvai time interval (0.92-1.73 m.y. ago) and increasing rates since then. Other Pacific area volcanic phenomena in mid-plate and convergent-boundary settings also show minima about 1.3-1.5 m.y. ago and a maximum at present and another maximum about 5 m.y. ago: extrusion rates along the Hawaiian Ridge; volcanic episodes associated with calc-alkalic provinces of western Oregon and Central America; temporal variations in the SiO2 content of Aleutian ash layers; and the number of deep-sea ash layers. These phenomena may fluctuate in response to changing spreading rates. During times of more rapid spreading increased shear and melting along lithospheric boundaries may occasion increased volcanic activity, whereas during times of less rapid spreading volcanic activity may be less intense.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/23637/1/0000601.pd

A transition from river networks to scale-free networks

A spatial network is constructed on a two dimensional space where the nodes are geometrical points located at randomly distributed positions which are labeled sequentially in increasing order of one of their co-ordinates. Starting with $N$ such points the network is grown by including them one by one according to the serial number into the growing network. The $t$-th point is attached to the $i$-th node of the network using the probability: $\pi_i(t) \sim k_i(t)\ell_{ti}^{\alpha}$ where $k_i(t)$ is the degree of the $i$-th node and $\ell_{ti}$ is the Euclidean distance between the points $t$ and $i$. Here $\alpha$ is a continuously tunable parameter and while for $\alpha=0$ one gets the simple Barab\'asi-Albert network, the case for $\alpha \to -\infty$ corresponds to the spatially continuous version of the well known Scheidegger's river network problem. The modulating parameter $\alpha$ is tuned to study the transition between the two different critical behaviors at a specific value $\alpha_c$ which we numerically estimate to be -2.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figur

Statistical Mechanics of the Chinese Restaurant Process: lack of self-averaging, anomalous finite-size effects and condensation

The Pitman-Yor, or Chinese Restaurant Process, is a stochastic process that generates distributions following a power-law with exponents lower than two, as found in a numerous physical, biological, technological and social systems. We discuss its rich behavior with the tools and viewpoint of statistical mechanics. We show that this process invariably gives rise to a condensation, i.e. a distribution dominated by a finite number of classes. We also evaluate thoroughly the finite-size effects, finding that the lack of stationary state and self-averaging of the process creates realization-dependent cutoffs and behavior of the distributions with no equivalent in other statistical mechanical models.Comment: (5pages, 1 figure

X-Ray Diffraction and Chemical Study of Secondary Minerals from Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 51, Holes 417A and 417D

Secondary minerals found in fracture fillings and in fragments of altered basalt from Holes 417A and 417D were studied by both X-ray diffraction and chemical techniques. Minerals found in fracture fillings from Hole 417A are dominated by montmorillonite, "protoceládonite," analcite, and lesser saponite; celadonite and ferrosaponite are the characteristic secondary minerals in Hole 417D fracture fillings. Assuming that minerals found in such fracture fillings reflect the composition of the secondary fluids that produced them, it is apparent that those from Hole 417A were dominantly Al-rich, while those from Hole 417D were more enriched in Fe, Mg, and K. X-ray diffraction study of bulk samples support such fundamental differences in secondary mineralogy. In addition, the X-ray data on bulk samples suggest that primary plagioclase is the feldspar in Hole 417D rocks, and secondary potassium feldspar is the feldspar in Hole 417A altered rocks. Using available published data on secondary miner?1" found in other altered oceanic crust, it is possible to interpret the differences in secondary mineralogy that exist between the two sites. Secondary minerals present in Hole 417D rocks are believed to have formed under hydrothermally influenced, low temperature, nonoxidative diagenesis; whereas, those present in Hole 417A were produced under similarly low temperatures, but much more highly oxidizing conditions. The fundamental differences in secondary mineralogy between the two sites can be best explained by the accompanying remobilization of elements that involved plagioclase alteration in Hole 417A rocks. A comparison of the composition of Hole 417A and 417D secondary minerals with those found in younger crust suggests that the age of crust, influenced by the changing conditions of alteration, control the chemistry of secondary minerals found in available pore spaces in altered rocks. Minerals found in young crust (<15 m.y.B.P.) are highly Mg-rich; minerals found in crust of intermediate age (—15-50 m.y.B.P.) are dominantly enriched in Fe and Mg; and those found in older crust have higher contents of Al and K