TELLUS: A combined surface temperature, soil moisture and evaporation mapping approach

There are no author-identified significant results in this report

Investigating Sources of Variability and Error in Simulations of Carbon Dioxide in an Urban Region

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimation methods that use atmospheric trace gas observations, including inverse modeling techniques, perform better when carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes are more accurately transported and dispersed in the atmosphere by a numerical model. In urban areas, transport and dispersion is particularly difficult to simulate using current mesoscale meteorological models due, in part, to added complexity from surface heterogeneity and fine spatial/temporal scales. It is generally assumed that the errors in GHG estimation methods in urban areas are dominated by errors in transport and dispersion. Other significant errors include, but are not limited to, those from assumed emissions magnitude and spatial distribution. To assess the predictability of simulated trace gas mole fractions in urban observing systems using a numerical weather prediction model, we employ an Eulerian model that combines traditional meteorological variables with multiple passive tracers of atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic inventories and a biospheric model. The predictability of the Eulerian model is assessed by comparing simulated atmospheric CO2 mole fractions to observations from four in situ tower sites (three urban and one rural) in the Washington DC/Baltimore, MD area for February 2016. Four different gridded fossil fuel emissions inventories along with a biospheric flux model are used to create an ensemble of simulated atmospheric CO2 observations within the model. These ensembles help to evaluate whether the modeled observations are impacted more by the underlying emissions or transport. The spread of modeled observations using the four emission fields indicates the model's ability to distinguish between the different inventories under various meteorological conditions. Overall, the Eulerian model performs well; simulated and observed average CO2 mole fractions agree within 1% when averaged at the three urban sites across the month. However, there can be differences greater than 10% at any given hour, which are attributed to complex meteorological conditions rather than differences in the inventories themselves. On average, the mean absolute error of the simulated compared to actual observations is generally twice as large as the standard deviation of the modeled mole fractions across the four emission inventories. This result supports the assumption, in urban domains, that the predicted mole fraction error relative to observations is dominated by errors in model meteorology rather than errors in the underlying fluxes in winter months. As such, minimizing errors associated with atmospheric transport and dispersion may help improve the performance of GHG estimation models more so than improving flux priors in the winter months. We also find that the errors associated with atmospheric transport in urban domains are not restricted to certain times of day. This suggests that atmospheric inversions should use CO2 observations that have been filtered using meteorological observations rather than assuming that meteorological modeling is most accurate at certain times of day (such as using only mid-afternoon observations)

Agent architecture for adaptive behaviours in autonomous driving

Evolution has endowed animals with outstanding adaptive behaviours which are grounded in the organization of their sensorimotor system. This paper uses inspiration from these principles of organization in the design of an artificial agent for autonomous driving. After distilling the relevant principles from biology, their functional role in the implementation of an artificial system are explained. The resulting Agent, developed in an EU H2020 Research and Innovation Action, is used to concretely demonstrate the emergence of adaptive behaviour with a significant level of autonomy. Guidelines to adapt the same principled organization of the sensorimotor system to other agents for driving are also obtained. The demonstration of the system abilities is given with example scenarios and open access simulation tools. Prospective developments concerning learning via mental imagery are finally discussed

A biologically plausible embodied model of action discovery

During development, animals can spontaneously discover action-outcome pairings enabling subsequent achievement of their goals. We present a biologically plausible embodied model addressing key aspects of this process. The biomimetic model core comprises the basal ganglia and its loops through cortex and thalamus. We incorporate reinforcement learning (RL) with phasic dopamine supplying a sensory prediction error, signalling “surprising” outcomes. Phasic dopamine is used in a cortico-striatal learning rule which is consistent with recent data. We also hypothesized that objects associated with surprising outcomes acquire “novelty salience” contingent on the predicability of the outcome. To test this idea we used a simple model of prediction governing the dynamics of novelty salience and phasic dopamine. The task of the virtual robotic agent mimicked an in vivo counterpart (Gancarz et al., 2011) and involved interaction with a target object which caused a light flash, or a control object which did not. Learning took place according to two schedules. In one, the phasic outcome was delivered after interaction with the target in an unpredictable way which emulated the in vivo protocol. Without novelty salience, the model was unable to account for the experimental data. In the other schedule, the phasic outcome was reliably delivered and the agent showed a rapid increase in the number of interactions with the target which then decreased over subsequent sessions. We argue this is precisely the kind of change in behavior required to repeatedly present representations of context, action and outcome, to neural networks responsible for learning action-outcome contingency. The model also showed cortico-striatal plasticity consistent with learning a new action in basal ganglia. We conclude that action learning is underpinned by a complex interplay of plasticity and stimulus salience, and that our model contains many of the elements for biological action discovery to take place

Critical view of WKB decay widths

A detailed comparison of the expressions for the decay widths obtained within the semiclassical WKB approximation using different approaches to the tunneling problem is performed. The differences between the available improved formulae for tunneling near the top and the bottom of the barrier are investigated. Though the simple WKB method gives the right order of magnitude of the decay widths, a small number of parameters are often fitted. The need to perform the fitting procedure remaining consistently within the WKB framework is emphasized in the context of the fission model based calculations. Calculations for the decay widths of some recently found super heavy nuclei using microscopic alpha-nucleus potentials are presented to demonstrate the importance of a consistent WKB calculation. The half-lives are found to be sensitive to the density dependence of the nucleon-nucleon interaction and the implementation of the Bohr-Sommerfeld quantization condition inherent in the WKB approach.Comment: 18 pages, Late

The information analysis center concept as developed by the Radiation Shielding Information Center in its computer codes activities

Information analysis center concept and computer codes for calculating radiation transport, and shield design

Global Night-Time Lights for Observing Human Activity

We present a concept for a small satellite mission to make systematic, global observations of night-time lights with spatial resolution suitable for discerning the extent, type and density of human settlements. The observations will also allow better understanding of fine scale fossil fuel CO2 emission distribution. The NASA Earth Science Decadal Survey recommends more focus on direct observations of human influence on the Earth system. The most dramatic and compelling observations of human presence on the Earth are the night light observations taken by the Defence Meteorological System Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan System (OLS). Beyond delineating the footprint of human presence, night light data, when assembled and evaluated with complementary data sets, can determine the fine scale spatial distribution of global fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Understanding fossil fuel carbon emissions is critical to understanding the entire carbon cycle, and especially the carbon exchange between terrestrial and oceanic systems

Randomized phase III KEYNOTE-045 trial of pembrolizumab versus paclitaxel, docetaxel, or vinflunine in recurrent advanced urothelial cancer: results of >2 years of follow-up.

BackgroundNovel second-line treatments are needed for patients with advanced urothelial cancer (UC). Interim analysis of the phase III KEYNOTE-045 study showed a superior overall survival (OS) benefit of pembrolizumab, a programmed death 1 inhibitor, versus chemotherapy in patients with advanced UC that progressed on platinum-based chemotherapy. Here we report the long-term safety and efficacy outcomes of KEYNOTE-045.Patients and methodsAdult patients with histologically/cytologically confirmed UC whose disease progressed after first-line, platinum-containing chemotherapy were enrolled. Patients were randomly assigned 1 : 1 to receive pembrolizumab [200 mg every 3 weeks (Q3W)] or investigator's choice of paclitaxel (175 mg/m2 Q3W), docetaxel (75 mg/m2 Q3W), or vinflunine (320 mg/m2 Q3W). Primary end points were OS and progression-free survival (PFS) per Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors, version 1.1 (RECIST v1.1) by blinded independent central radiology review (BICR). A key secondary end point was objective response rate per RECIST v1.1 by BICR.ResultsA total of 542 patients were enrolled (pembrolizumab, n = 270; chemotherapy, n = 272). Median follow-up as of 26 October 2017 was 27.7 months. Median 1- and 2-year OS rates were higher with pembrolizumab (44.2% and 26.9%, respectively) than chemotherapy (29.8% and 14.3%, respectively). PFS rates did not differ between treatment arms; however, 1- and 2-year PFS rates were higher with pembrolizumab. The objective response rate was also higher with pembrolizumab (21.1% versus 11.0%). Median duration of response to pembrolizumab was not reached (range 1.6+ to 30.0+ months) versus chemotherapy (4.4 months; range 1.4+ to 29.9+ months). Pembrolizumab had lower rates of any grade (62.0% versus 90.6%) and grade ≥3 (16.5% versus 50.2%) treatment-related adverse events than chemotherapy.ConclusionsLong-term results (>2 years' follow-up) were consistent with those of previously reported analyses, demonstrating continued clinical benefit of pembrolizumab over chemotherapy for efficacy and safety for treatment of locally advanced/metastatic, platinum-refractory UC.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02256436