Induced Technological Change: Exploring its Implications for the Economics of Atmospheric Stabilization: Synthesis Report from the Innovation Modeling Comparison Project

This paper summarizes results from ten global economy-energy-environment models implementing mechanisms of endogenous technological change (ETC). Climate policy goals represented as different CO2 stabilization levels are imposed, and the contribution of induced technological change (ITC) to meeting the goals is assessed. Findings indicate that climate policy induces additional technological change, in some models substantially. Its effect is a reduction of abatement costs in all participating models. The majority of models calculate abatement costs below 1 percent of present value aggregate gross world product for the period 2000-2100. The models predict different dynamics for rising carbon costs, with some showing a decline in carbon costs towards the end of the century. There are a number of reasons for differences in results between models; however four major drivers of differences are identified. First, the extent of the necessary CO2 reduction which depends mainly on predicted baseline emissions, determines how much a model is challenged to comply with climate policy. Second, when climate policy can offset market distortions, some models show that not costs but benefits accrue from climate policy. Third, assumptions about long-term investment behavior, e.g. foresight of actors and number of available investment options, exert a major influence. Finally, whether and how options for carbon-free energy are implemented (backstop and end-of-the-pipe technologies) strongly affects both the mitigation strategy and the abatement costs

Software defect prediction: do different classifiers find the same defects?

Open Access: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License CC BY 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.During the last 10 years, hundreds of different defect prediction models have been published. The performance of the classifiers used in these models is reported to be similar with models rarely performing above the predictive performance ceiling of about 80% recall. We investigate the individual defects that four classifiers predict and analyse the level of prediction uncertainty produced by these classifiers. We perform a sensitivity analysis to compare the performance of Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, RPart and SVM classifiers when predicting defects in NASA, open source and commercial datasets. The defect predictions that each classifier makes is captured in a confusion matrix and the prediction uncertainty of each classifier is compared. Despite similar predictive performance values for these four classifiers, each detects different sets of defects. Some classifiers are more consistent in predicting defects than others. Our results confirm that a unique subset of defects can be detected by specific classifiers. However, while some classifiers are consistent in the predictions they make, other classifiers vary in their predictions. Given our results, we conclude that classifier ensembles with decision-making strategies not based on majority voting are likely to perform best in defect prediction.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Relationships of peripheral IGF-1, VEGF and BDNF levels to exercise-related changes in memory, hippocampal perfusion and volumes in older adults

Animal models point towards a key role of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in mediating exercise-induced structural and functional changes in the hippocampus. Recently, also platelet derived growth factor-C (PDGF-C) has been shown to promote blood vessel growth and neuronal survival. Moreover, reductions of these neurotrophic and angiogenic factors in old age have been related to hippocampal atrophy, decreased vascularization and cognitive decline. In a 3-month aerobic exercise study, forty healthy older humans (60 to 77years) were pseudo-randomly assigned to either an aerobic exercise group (indoor treadmill, n=21) or to a control group (indoor progressive-muscle relaxation/stretching, n=19). As reported recently, we found evidence for fitness-related perfusion changes of the aged human hippocampus that were closely linked to changes in episodic memory function. Here, we test whether peripheral levels of BDNF, IGF-I, VEGF or PDGF-C are related to changes in hippocampal blood flow, volume and memory performance. Growth factor levels were not significantly affected by exercise, and their changes were not related to changes in fitness or perfusion. However, changes in IGF-I levels were positively correlated with hippocampal volume changes (derived by manual volumetry and voxel-based morphometry) and late verbal recall performance, a relationship that seemed to be independent of fitness, perfusion or their changes over time. These preliminary findings link IGF-I levels to hippocampal volume changes and putatively hippocampus-dependent memory changes that seem to occur over time independently of exercise. We discuss methodological shortcomings of our study and potential differences in the temporal dynamics of how IGF-1, VEGF and BDNF may be affected by exercise and to what extent these differences may have led to the negative findings reported here

Theory and Applications of X-ray Standing Waves in Real Crystals

Theoretical aspects of x-ray standing wave method for investigation of the real structure of crystals are considered in this review paper. Starting from the general approach of the secondary radiation yield from deformed crystals this theory is applied to different concreat cases. Various models of deformed crystals like: bicrystal model, multilayer model, crystals with extended deformation field are considered in detailes. Peculiarities of x-ray standing wave behavior in different scattering geometries (Bragg, Laue) are analysed in detailes. New possibilities to solve the phase problem with x-ray standing wave method are discussed in the review. General theoretical approaches are illustrated with a big number of experimental results.Comment: 101 pages, 43 figures, 3 table