Effects of habitat and livestock on nest productivity of the Asian houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii in Bukhara Province, Uzbekistan

To inform population support measures for the unsustainably hunted Asian houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii (IUCN Vulnerable) we examined potential habitat and land-use effects on nest productivity in the Kyzylkum Desert, Uzbekistan. We monitored 177 nests across different semi-arid shrub assemblages (clay-sand and salinity gradients) and a range of livestock densities (0–80 km-2). Nest success (mean 51.4%, 95% CI 42.4–60.4%) was similar across four years; predation caused 85% of those failures for which the cause was known, and only three nests were trampled by livestock. Nesting begins within a few weeks of arrival when food appears scarce, but later nests were more likely to fail owing to the emergence of a key predator, suggesting foraging conditions on wintering and passage sites may be important for nest productivity. Nest success was similar across three shrub assemblages and was unrelated to landscape rugosity, shrub frequency or livestock density, but was greater with taller mean shrub height (range 13–67 cm) within 50 m. Clutch size (mean = 3.2 eggs) and per-egg hatchability in successful nests (87.5%) did not differ with laying date, shrub assemblage or livestock density. We therefore found no evidence that livestock density reduced nest productivity across the range examined, while differing shrub assemblages appeared to offer similar habitat quality. Asian houbara appear well-adapted to a range of semi-desert habitats and tolerate moderate disturbance by pastoralism. No obvious in situ mitigation measures arise from these findings, leaving regulation and control as the key requirement to render hunting sustainable

Investigation of the Climatic and Environmental Context of Hendra Virus Spillover Events 1994–2010

Hendra virus is a recently emerged bat-borne zoonotic agent with high lethality in horses and humans in Australia. This is a rare disease and the determinants of bat to horse transmission, including the factors that bring these hosts together at critical times, are poorly understood. In this cross-disciplinary study climatic and vegetation primary productivity variables are compared for the dispersed and heterogenic 1994–2010 outbreak sites. The significant occurrence of spillover events within the dry season (p =  0.013, 95% CI (0.57–0.98)) suggests seasonal forcing of transmission across species, or seasonal forcing of virus excretion by the reservoir host. We explore the evidence for both. Preliminary investigations of the spatial determinants of Hendra disease locations are also presented. We find that postal areas in the Australian state of Queensland in which pteropid fruit bat (flying fox) roosts occur are approximately forty times more likely (OR = 40.5, (95% CI (5.16, 317.52)) to be the location of Hendra spillover events. This appears to be independent of density of horses at these locations. We consider issues of scale of host resource use, land use change and limitations of existing data that challenge analysis and limit further conclusive outcomes. This investigation of a broad range of potential climatic and environmental influences provides a good base for future investigations. Further understanding of cross-species Hendra virus transmission requires better understanding of flying fox resource use in the urban-rural landscape

Flea Diversity as an Element for Persistence of Plague Bacteria in an East African Plague Focus

Plague is a flea-borne rodent-associated zoonotic disease that is caused by Yersinia pestis and characterized by long quiescent periods punctuated by rapidly spreading epidemics and epizootics. How plague bacteria persist during inter-epizootic periods is poorly understood, yet is important for predicting when and where epizootics are likely to occur and for designing interventions aimed at local elimination of the pathogen. Existing hypotheses of how Y. pestis is maintained within plague foci typically center on host abundance or diversity, but little attention has been paid to the importance of flea diversity in enzootic maintenance. Our study compares host and flea abundance and diversity along an elevation gradient that spans from low elevation sites outside of a plague focus in the West Nile region of Uganda (∼725–1160 m) to higher elevation sites within the focus (∼1380–1630 m). Based on a year of sampling, we showed that host abundance and diversity, as well as total flea abundance on hosts was similar between sites inside compared with outside the plague focus. By contrast, flea diversity was significantly higher inside the focus than outside. Our study highlights the importance of considering flea diversity in models of Y. pestis persistence

Dynamics of the plague–wildlife–human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949–1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population

The Heat Is On: Modeling the Persistence of ESBL-Producing <i>E. coli</i> in Blue Mussels under Meal Preparation

Pathways for exposure and dissemination of antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) bacteria are major public health issues. Filter-feeding shellfish concentrate bacteria from the environment and thus can also harbor extended-spectrum β-lactamase—producing Escherichia coli (ESBL E. coli) as an example of a resistant pathogen of concern. Is the short steaming procedure that blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) undergo before consumption enough for food safety in regard to such resistant pathogens? In this study, we performed experiments to assess the survival of ESBL E. coli in blue mussel. Consequently, a predictive model for the dose of ESBL E. coli that consumers would be exposed to, after preparing blue mussels or similar through the common practice of brief steaming until opening of the shells, was performed. The output of the model is the expected number of colony forming units per gram (cfu/g) of ESBL E. coli in a meal as a function of the duration and the temperature of steaming and the initial contamination. In these experiments, the heat tolerance of the ESBL-producing E. coli strain was indistinguishable from that of non-ESBL E. coli, and the heat treatments often practiced are likely to be insufficient to avoid exposure to viable ESBL E. coli. Steaming time (>3.5–4.0 min) is a better indicator than shell openness to avoid exposure to these ESBL or indicator E. coli strains

Reconstruction of a 1,910-y-long locust series reveals consistent associations with climate fluctuations in China

It is becoming increasingly clear that global warming is taking place; however, its long-term effects on biological populations are largely unknown due to lack of long-term data. Here, we reconstructed a 1,910-y-long time series of outbreaks of Oriental migratory locusts (Locusta migratoria manilensis) in China, on the basis of information extracted from >8,000 historical documents. First by analyzing the most recent period with the best data quality using generalized additive models, we found statistically significant associations between the reconstructed locust abundance and indexes of precipitation and temperature at both annual (A.D. 1512–1911) and decadal (A.D. 1000–1900) scales: There were more locusts under dry and cold conditions and when locust abundance was high in the preceding year or decade. Second, by exploring locust–environment correlations using a 200-y moving window, we tested whether these associations also hold further back in time. The locust–precipitation correlation was found to hold at least as far back as to A.D. 500, supporting the robustness of this link as well as the quality of both reconstructions. The locust–temperature correlation was weaker and less consistent, which may reflect this link being indirect and thus more easily moderated by other factors. We anticipate that further analysis of this unique time series now available to the scientific community will continue to provide insights into biological consequences of climate change in the years to come