Balance, growth and diversity of financial markets

A financial market comprising of a certain number of distinct companies is considered, and the following statement is proved: either a specific agent will surely beat the whole market unconditionally in the long run, or (and this "or" is not exclusive) all the capital of the market will accumulate in one company. Thus, absence of any "free unbounded lunches relative to the total capital" opportunities lead to the most dramatic failure of diversity in the market: one company takes over all other until the end of time. In order to prove this, we introduce the notion of perfectly balanced markets, which is an equilibrium state in which the relative capitalization of each company is a martingale under the physical probability. Then, the weaker notion of balanced markets is discussed where the martingale property of the relative capitalizations holds only approximately, we show how these concepts relate to growth-optimality and efficiency of the market, as well as how we can infer a shadow interest rate that is implied in the economy in the absence of a bank.Comment: 25 page

Runge-Kutta methods for third order weak approximation of SDEs with multidimensional additive noise

A new class of third order Runge-Kutta methods for stochastic differential equations with additive noise is introduced. In contrast to Platen's method, which to the knowledge of the author has been up to now the only known third order Runge-Kutta scheme for weak approximation, the new class of methods affords less random variable evaluations and is also applicable to SDEs with multidimensional noise. Order conditions up to order three are calculated and coefficients of a four stage third order method are given. This method has deterministic order four and minimized error constants, and needs in addition less function evaluations than the method of Platen. Applied to some examples, the new method is compared numerically with Platen's method and some well known second order methods and yields very promising results.Comment: Two further examples added, small correction

COST ES0602: towards a European network on chemical weather forecasting and information systems

The COST ES0602 action provides a forum for benchmarking approaches and practices in data exchange and multi-model capabilities for chemical weather forecasting and near real-time information services in Europe. The action includes approximately 30 participants from 19 countries, and its duration is from 2007 to 2011 (<a href="http://www.chemicalweather.eu/" target="_blank">http://www.chemicalweather.eu/</a>). Major efforts have been dedicated in other actions and projects to the development of infrastructures for data flow. We have therefore aimed for collaboration with ongoing actions towards developing near real-time exchange of input data for air quality forecasting. We have collected information on the operational air quality forecasting models on a regional and continental scale in a structured form, and inter-compared and evaluated the physical and chemical structure of these models. We have also constructed a European chemical weather forecasting portal that includes links to most of the available chemical weather forecasting systems in Europe. The collaboration also includes the examination of the case studies that have been organized within COST-728, in order to inter-compare and evaluate the models against experimental data. We have also constructed an operational model forecasting ensemble. Data from a representative set of regional background stations have been selected, and the operational forecasts for this set of sites will be inter-compared and evaluated. The Action has investigated, analysed and reviewed existing chemical weather information systems and services, and will provide recommendations on best practices concerning the presentation and dissemination of chemical weather information towards the public and decision makers

On inversions and Doob hh-transforms of linear diffusions

Let $X$ be a regular linear diffusion whose state space is an open interval $E\subseteq\mathbb{R}$. We consider a diffusion $X^*$ which probability law is obtained as a Doob $h$-transform of the law of $X$, where $h$ is a positive harmonic function for the infinitesimal generator of $X$ on $E$. This is the dual of $X$ with respect to $h(x)m(dx)$ where $m(dx)$ is the speed measure of $X$. Examples include the case where $X^*$ is $X$ conditioned to stay above some fixed level. We provide a construction of $X^*$ as a deterministic inversion of $X$, time changed with some random clock. The study involves the construction of some inversions which generalize the Euclidean inversions. Brownian motion with drift and Bessel processes are considered in details.Comment: 19 page

Stochastic Calculus for a Time-changed Semimartingale and the Associated Stochastic Differential Equations

It is shown that under a certain condition on a semimartingale and a time-change, any stochastic integral driven by the time-changed semimartingale is a time-changed stochastic integral driven by the original semimartingale. As a direct consequence, a specialized form of the Ito formula is derived. When a standard Brownian motion is the original semimartingale, classical Ito stochastic differential equations driven by the Brownian motion with drift extend to a larger class of stochastic differential equations involving a time-change with continuous paths. A form of the general solution of linear equations in this new class is established, followed by consideration of some examples analogous to the classical equations. Through these examples, each coefficient of the stochastic differential equations in the new class is given meaning. The new feature is the coexistence of a usual drift term along with a term related to the time-change.Comment: 27 pages; typos correcte

Maximum likelihood drift estimation for a threshold diffusion

We study the maximum likelihood estimator of the drift parameters of a stochastic differential equation, with both drift and diffusion coefficients constant on the positive and negative axis, yet discontinuous at zero. This threshold diffusion is called drifted Oscillating Brownian motion.For this continuously observed diffusion, the maximum likelihood estimator coincide with a quasi-likelihood estimator with constant diffusion term. We show that this estimator is the limit, as observations become dense in time, of the (quasi)-maximum likelihood estimator based on discrete observations. In long time, the asymptotic behaviors of the positive and negative occupation times rule the ones of the estimators. Differently from most known results in the literature, we do not restrict ourselves to the ergodic framework: indeed, depending on the signs of the drift, the process may be ergodic, transient or null recurrent. For each regime, we establish whether or not the estimators are consistent; if they are, we prove the convergence in long time of the properly rescaled difference of the estimators towards a normal or mixed normal distribution. These theoretical results are backed by numerical simulations