Modelling height in adolescence: a comparison of methods for estimating the age at peak height velocity

Background: Controlling for maturational status and timing is crucial in lifecourse epidemiology. One popular non-invasive measure of maturity is the age at peak height velocity (PHV). There are several ways to estimate age at PHV, but it is unclear which of these to use in practice. Aim: To find the optimal approach for estimating age at PHV. Subjects and methods: Methods included the Preece & Baines non-linear growth model, multi-level models with fractional polynomials, SuperImposition by Translation And Rotation (SITAR) and functional data analysis. These were compared through a simulation study and using data from a large cohort of adolescent boys from the Christ’s Hospital School. Results: The SITAR model gave close to unbiased estimates of age at PHV, but convergence issues arose when measurement error was large. Preece & Baines achieved close to unbiased estimates, but shares similarity with the data generation model for our simulation study and was also computationally inefficient, taking 24 hours to fit the data from Christ’s Hospital School. Functional data analysis consistently converged, but had higher mean bias than SITAR. Almost all methods demonstrated strong correlations (r > 0.9) between true and estimated age at PHV. Conclusions: Both SITAR or the PBGM are useful models for adolescent growth and provide unbiased estimates of age at peak height velocity. Care should be taken as substantial bias and variance can occur with large measurement error

Confirmation of delayed menarche based on regression evaluation of age at menarche for age at MPV of height in female ball game players

A general delay in menarche in female athletes has been confirmed based on comparisons of mean ages between athletes and non-athletes; however, it has not been possible to judge such delays individually. If delayed menarche could be evaluated for an individual, the athlete could be advised as to necessary precautions. In this study, the age at maximum peak velocity (MPV) of height, adopted as an index of physical maturation, was identified by the wavelet interpolation method (WIM). The relationship between the age at menarche and age at MPV of height in female athletes and non-athletes was then examined. For the athlete group, health examination records of 90 female ball game players in the first year of university in the Tokai area, all of whom had participated in national level competitions, were reviewed for the period from the first grade of elementary school until the final year of high school (from 1985 to 1996). A similar examination was conducted for the control group, among whom a final group of 78 female non-athletes were selected. The age at menarche was determined by questionnaires, and the longitudinal data for height and weight were obtained from the health examination records. Based on a comparison of the difference between the age at MPV of height and age at menarche in ball game players and the control group, a tendency was seen for the difference between the two ages to narrow as the age at MPV of height rose. A corrected regression evaluation of age at menarche against age at MPV of height was derived in the control group, and the evaluation system was applied to ball game players. The delay in menarche in ball game players could be individually evaluated