49 research outputs found

    Effects on early monsoon rainfall in West Africa due to recent deforestation in a convection-permitting ensemble

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    Tropical deforestation can have a significant effect on climate, but research attention has been directed mostly towards Amazonian deforestation. The southern part of West Africa (a region dependent on rain-fed agriculture and vulnerable to droughts and flooding) has seen significant deforestation since the 1950s. Many previous tropical deforestation studies have used idealized and exaggerated deforestation scenarios and parameterized convection models. In this study we estimate for the first time realistic historical deforestation from the Land-Use Harmonization dataset in West Africa and simulate the impacts in a 5 d ensemble forecast in June using a convection-permitting regional climate model. We find that sensible heat flux increases at the expense of latent heat flux in most deforested regions, and rainfall increases by an average of 8.4 % over deforested pixels from 18:00–06:00 UTC, whereas changes are much less pronounced during the day. Over large areas of deforestation approx. 300 km inland (e.g. west Guinea) the roughness-length and thermally enhanced convergence during the afternoon and evening occurs over the deforested areas resulting in increases in rainfall with little impact from reduced daytime humidity. In areas of coastal deforestation (e.g. Côte d'Ivoire), increased winds drive the sea breeze convection inland, resulting in evening rainfall reductions over the deforested area but increases further inland, in line with observations. We suggest our results would not be replicated in parameterized convection models, which are known to struggle with capturing peak convective activity in the late afternoon and long-lived nocturnal rainfall and with reproducing observed surface–rainfall feedbacks

    Ecological association between a deprivation index and mortality in France over the period 1997 – 2001: variations with spatial scale, degree of urbanicity, age, gender and cause of death

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Spatial health inequalities have often been analysed in terms of deprivation. The aim of this study was to create an ecological deprivation index and evaluate its association with mortality over the entire mainland France territory. More specifically, the variations with the degree of urbanicity, spatial scale, age, gender and cause of death, which influence the association between mortality and deprivation, have been described.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The deprivation index, 'FDep99', was developed at the '<it>commune</it>'(smallest administrative unit in France) level as the first component of a principal component analysis of four socioeconomic variables.</p> <p>Proxies of the Carstairs and Townsend indices were calculated for comparison.</p> <p>The spatial association between FDep99 and mortality was studied using five different spatial scales, and by degree of urbanicity (five urban unit categories), age, gender and cause of death, over the period 1997–2001.</p> <p>'Avoidable' causes of death were also considered for subjects aged less than 65 years. They were defined as causes related to risk behaviour and primary prevention (alcohol, smoking, accidents).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The association between the FDep99 index and mortality was positive and quasi-log-linear, for all geographic scales. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was 24% higher for the <it>communes </it>of the most deprived quintile than for those of the least deprived quintile. The between-urban unit category and between-<it>région </it>heterogeneities of the log-linear associations were not statistically significant. The association was positive for all the categories studied and was significantly greater for subjects aged less than 65 years, for men, and for 'avoidable' mortality.</p> <p>The amplitude and regularity of the associations between mortality and the Townsend and Carstairs indices were lower.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The deprivation index proposed reflects a major part of spatial socioeconomic heterogeneity, in a homogeneous manner over the whole country. The index may be routinely used by healthcare authorities to observe, analyse, and manage spatial health inequalities.</p

    Characterization of a Drosophila Alzheimer's Disease Model: Pharmacological Rescue of Cognitive Defects

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    Transgenic models of Alzheimer's disease (AD) have made significant contributions to our understanding of AD pathogenesis, and are useful tools in the development of potential therapeutics. The fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster, provides a genetically tractable, powerful system to study the biochemical, genetic, environmental, and behavioral aspects of complex human diseases, including AD. In an effort to model AD, we over-expressed human APP and BACE genes in the Drosophila central nervous system. Biochemical, neuroanatomical, and behavioral analyses indicate that these flies exhibit aspects of clinical AD neuropathology and symptomology. These include the generation of Aβ40 and Aβ42, the presence of amyloid aggregates, dramatic neuroanatomical changes, defects in motor reflex behavior, and defects in memory. In addition, these flies exhibit external morphological abnormalities. Treatment with a γ-secretase inhibitor suppressed these phenotypes. Further, all of these phenotypes are present within the first few days of adult fly life. Taken together these data demonstrate that this transgenic AD model can serve as a powerful tool for the identification of AD therapeutic interventions

    The rhizosphere: a playground and battlefield for soilborne pathogens and beneficial microorganisms

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    The use of gross fixed capital formation as a measure of construction output

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    There is a need to model construction industries in different countries for international construction marketing purposes and global construction and environmental policy. In the absence of a common method of construction data collection and analysis, estimates of the size of national construction industries use econometric models. One such approach relates contractors’ output to its share of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), and uses this relationship in one economy to estimate construction output in another country. To examine the relationship between contractors’ output and GFCF a number of regressions were run. As GFCF is available for all countries, two candidate measures are evaluated as proxies for construction output, namely total GFCF and the construction element of GFCF. A strong relationship is found to exist between UK construction output and GFCF. This is significant as a validation of UK measures of construction output, although the two data series are compiled separately using different samples and some statistical variation would therefore be expected. The paper supports the use of the total construction element in GFCF as a proxy for construction output. This work therefore prepares the way for further modelling of construction output internationally using detailed construction data and GFCF
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