An assessment of key model parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior

Lack of knowledge about the values of ice sheet model input parameters introduces substantial uncertainty into projections of Greenland Ice Sheet contributions to future sea level rise. Computer models of ice sheet behavior provide one of several means of estimating future sea level rise due to mass loss from ice sheets. Such models have many input parameters whose values are not well known. Recent studies have investigated the effects of these parameters on model output, but the range of potential future sea level increases due to model parametric uncertainty has not been characterized. Here, we demonstrate that this range is large, using a 100-member perturbed-physics ensemble with the SICOPOLIS ice sheet model. Each model run is spun up over 125 000 yr using geological forcings and subsequently driven into the future using an asymptotically increasing air temperature anomaly curve. All modeled ice sheets lose mass after 2005 AD. Parameters controlling surface melt dominate the model response to temperature change. After culling the ensemble to include only members that give reasonable ice volumes in 2005 AD, the range of projected sea level rise values in 2100 AD is ~40 % or more of the median. Data on past ice sheet behavior can help reduce this uncertainty, but none of our ensemble members produces a reasonable ice volume change during the mid-Holocene, relative to the present. This problem suggests that the model's exponential relation between temperature and precipitation does not hold during the Holocene, or that the central-Greenland temperature forcing curve used to drive the model is not representative of conditions around the ice margin at this time (among other possibilities). Our simulations also lack certain observed physical processes that may tend to enhance the real ice sheet's response. Regardless, this work has implications for other studies that use ice sheet models to project or hindcast the behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Mobilising communities to address alcohol harm : an Alcohol Health Champion approach

In this article, Cathy Ure et al. look at engaging communities in order to reduce alcohol harms. By training Alcohol Health Champions, individuals can support vulnerable friends and family, and work within their communities to influence policy and promote change

The role of constitutive models in MPM simulations of granular column collapses

The granular column collapse is a well-established experiment which consists of having a vertical column of granular material on a flat surface and letting it collapse by gravity. Despite its simplicity in execution, the numerical modelling of a column collapse remains challenging. So far, much attention has been dedicated in assessing the ability of various numerical methods in modelling the large deformation and little to the role of the constitutive model on both the triggering mechanism and the flow behaviour. Furthermore, the influence of the initial density, and its associated dilatancy and strength characteristics, have never been included in the analyses. Most past numerical investigations had relied on simple constitutive relations which do not consider the softening behaviours. The aim of this study is to illustrate the influence of the constitutive model on the on-set of failure, the flow behaviour and the deposition profile using the material point method (MPM). Three constitutive models were used to simulate the collapse of two granular columns with different geometries and for two densities. The results of the simulations showed that the constitutive model had a twofold influence on the collapse behaviour. It defined the volume of the mobilised mass which spread along the flat surface and controlled the dissipation of its energy. The initial density was found to enhance the failure angle and flow behaviours and was more significant for small columns than for larger ones. The analysis of the potential energy of the mobilised mass explained the existence of two collapse regimes.This project has received funding from the European Unions Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no PIAP-GA-2012-324522 and the Swiss National Science Foundation under grant agreement P1SKP2 158621.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11440-016-0436-

Emerging coordination mechanisms for multi-party IPR holders: linking research with standardization

The standards setting process relies to an increasing degree on successfully integrating up-to-date research and development results (R&D). The successful interaction between research and standards can provide important social benefits. But, to do so, a number of challenges need to be faced. One key and persistent challenge is to provide the conditions in which the cross-purposes of formal standards-setting bodies and intellectual property rights can equitably be accommodated. This means balancing the collective gains to be reaped from the elaboration of a common standard against the individual gains to be allocated to relevant individual rights-holders. This discussion paper focuses on approaches to the reemerging tension between intellectual-property-rights and standards. It points to the importance that successful approaches can have to improve the interaction the between research and standardization activities. It then goes on to consider the (re)emergence of two approaches that are indicative of the changing relationship between intellectual property rights and standards-setting bodies

Earliest Holocene south Greenland ice sheet retreat within its late Holocene extent

Early Holocene summer warmth drove dramatic Greenland ice sheet (GIS) retreat. Subsequent insolation-driven cooling caused GIS margin readvance to late Holocene maxima, from which ice margins are now retreating. We use 10Be surface exposure ages from four locations between 69.4°N and 61.2°N to date when in the early Holocene south to west GIS margins retreated to within these late Holocene maximum extents. We find that this occurred at 11.1 ± 0.2 ka to 10.6 ± 0.5 ka in south Greenland, significantly earlier than previous estimates, and 6.8 ± 0.1 ka to 7.9 ± 0.1 ka in southwest to west Greenland, consistent with existing 10Be ages. At least in south Greenland, these 10Be ages likely provide a minimum constraint for when on a multicentury timescale summer temperatures after the last deglaciation warmed above late Holocene temperatures in the early Holocene. Current south Greenland ice margin retreat suggests that south Greenland may have now warmed to or above earliest Holocene summer temperatures

Effects of study design and allocation on participant behaviour-ESDA: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: What study participants think about the nature of a study has been hypothesised to affect subsequent behaviour and to potentially bias study findings. In this trial we examine the impact of awareness of study design and allocation on participant drinking behaviour. Methods/Design: A three-arm parallel group randomised controlled trial design will be used. All recruitment, screening, randomisation, and follow-up will be conducted on-line among university students. Participants who indicate a hazardous level of alcohol consumption will be randomly assigned to one of three groups. Group A will be informed their drinking will be assessed at baseline and again in one month (as in a cohort study design). Group B will be told the study is an intervention trial and they are in the control group. Group C will be told the study is an intervention trial and they are in the intervention group. All will receive exactly the same brief educational material to read. After one month, alcohol intake for the past 4 weeks will be assessed. Discussion: The experimental manipulations address subtle and previously unexplored ways in which participant behaviour may be unwittingly influenced by standard practice in trials. Given the necessity of relying on self-reported outcome, it will not be possible to distinguish true behaviour change from reporting artefact. This does not matter in the present study, as any effects of awareness of study design or allocation involve bias that is not well understood. There has been little research on awareness effects, and our outcomes will provide an indication of the possible value of further studies of this type and inform hypothesis generation

Hypoxia and hyperglycaemia determine why some endometrial tumours fail to respond to metformin

High expression of Ki67, a proliferation marker, is associated with reduced endometrial cancer-specific survival. Pre-surgical metformin reduces tumour Ki-67 expression in some women with endometrial cancer. Metformin's anti-cancer activity may relate to effects on cellular energy metabolism. Since tumour hypoxia and glucose availability are major cellular redox determinants, we evaluated their role in endometrial cancer response to metformin. Endometrial cancer biopsies from women treated with pre-surgical metformin were tested for the hypoxia markers, HIF-1α and CA-9. Endometrial cancer cell lines were treated with metformin in variable glucose concentrations in normoxia or hypoxia and cell viability, mitochondrial biogenesis, function and energy metabolism were assessed. In women treated with metformin (n = 28), Ki-67 response was lower in hypoxic tumours. Metformin showed minimal cytostatic effects towards Ishikawa and HEC1A cells in conventional medium (25 mM glucose). In low glucose (5.5 mM), a dose-dependent cytostatic effect was observed in normoxia but attenuated in hypoxia. Tumours treated with metformin showed increased mitochondrial mass (n = 25), while in cultured cells metformin decreased mitochondrial function. Metformin targets mitochondrial respiration, however, in hypoxic, high glucose conditions, there was a switch to glycolytic metabolism and decreased metformin response. Understanding the metabolic adaptations of endometrial tumours may identify patients likely to derive clinical benefit from metformin