On the Projection of Mortality Rates to Extreme Old Age

This article shows how cohort mortality rate projections of mortality models that involve age effects can be improved and extended to extreme old ages. The proposed approach allows insurers to use such mortality models to obtain valuations of financial instruments such as annuities that depend on projections of extreme old age mortality rates

A Simple Approach to Project Extreme Old Age Mortality Rates and Value Mortality-Related Financial Instruments

This article shows how mortality models that involve age effects can be fitted to ages beyond the sample range using projections of age effects as replacements for age effects that might not be in the sample. This ‘projected age effect’ approach allows insurers to use age-effect mortality models to obtain valuations of financial instruments such as annuities that depend on projections of extreme old ag

Good Practice Principles in Modelling Defined Contribution Pension Plans

We establish 16 good practice principles in modelling defined contribution pension plans. These principles cover the following issues: model specification and calibration; modelling quantifiable uncertainty; modelling member choices; modelling member characteristics, such as occupation and gender; modelling plan charges; modelling longevity risk; modelling the post-retirement period; integrating the pre and post-retirement periods; modelling additional sources of income, such as the state pension and equity release; modelling extraneous factors, such as unemployment risk, activity rates, taxes and entitlements; scenario analysis and stress testing; periodic updating of the model and changing assumptions; and overall fitness for purpose

Ultra-heavy cosmic rays: Theoretical implications of recent observations

Extreme ultraheavy cosmic ray observations (Z greater or equal 70) are compared with r-process models. A detailed cosmic ray propagation calculation is used to transform the calculated source distributions to those observed at the earth. The r-process production abundances are calculated using different mass formulae and beta-rate formulae; an empirical estimate based on the observed solar system abundances is used also. There is the continued strong indication of an r-process dominance in the extreme ultra-heavy cosmic rays. However it is shown that the observed high actinide/Pt ratio in the cosmic rays cannot be fit with the same r-process calculation which also fits the solar system material. This result suggests that the cosmic rays probably undergo some preferential acceleration in addition to the apparent general enrichment in heavy (r-process) material. As estimate also is made of the expected relative abundance of superheavy elements in the cosmic rays if the anomalous heavy xenon in carbonaceous chondrites is due to a fissioning superheavy element

Systematics of the odd-even effect in the resonance ionization of Os and Ti

Measurements of the odd-even effect in the mass spectrometric analysis of Ti and Os isotopes by resonance ionization mass spectrometry have been performed for ΔJ = + 1, 0 and -1 transitions. Under saturating conditions of the ionization and for ΔJ = + 1 transitions odd-even effects are reduced below the 0.5% level. Depending on the polarization state of the laser large odd isotope enrichments are observed for ΔJ = 0 and -1 transitions which can be reduced below the 0.5% level by depolarization of the laser field

Laser-induced isotopic selectivity in the resonance ionization of Os

Isotope selective effects in resonance ionization mass spectrometry (RIMS) pose a potentially serious limitation to the application of this technique to the precise and reproducible measurement of isotope ratios. In order to identify some of the underlying causes of isotope selectivity in RIMS and to establish procedures for minimizing these effects, we investigated laser-induced isotope selectivity in the resonance ionization of Os. A single-color, one-photon resonant ionization scheme was used for several different transitions to produce Os photoions from a thermal atomization source. Variations in Os isotope ratios were studied as a function of laser parameters such as wavelength, bandwidth, power and polarization state. Isotope selectivity is strongly dependent on laser power and wavelength, even when the bandwidth of the laser radiation is much larger than the optical isotope shift. Variations in the ^(190)Os/^(188)Os ratio of ≈20% for a detuning of 0.8 cm^(−1) were observed on a transition with a small oscillator strength. Large even—odd isotope selectivity with a 13% depletion of ^(189)Os was observed on a ΔJ = +1 transition at low laser intensity; the odd mass Os isotopes are systematically depleted. For ΔJ = −1 and 0 transitions the isotope selectivity was reduced by polarization scrambling and for strongly saturating conditions. A technique employing the wavelength dependence of even—even isotope selectivity as an internal wavelength standard was developed to permit accurate and reproducible wavelength adjustment of the laser radiation. This technique provides control over laser-induced isotope selectivity for single-color ionization and enabled us to obtain reproducible measurements of ^(192)Os/^(188)Os and ^(189)Os/^(190)Os ratios in the saturation regime for a ΔJ = +1 transition with a precision of better than 0.5%. The application of this wavelength-tuning procedure should significantly improve the quality of RIMS isotope ratio data for many elements

Systematics of isotope ratio measurements with resonant laser photoionization sources

Sources of laser-induced even-even and odd-even isotopic selectivity in the resonance ionization mass spectroscopy of Os and Ti have been investigated experimentally for various types of transitions. A set of conditions with regard to laser bandwidth and frequency tuning, polarization state and intensity was obtained for which isotopic selectivity is either absent or reduced below the 2 % level

Laser-induced isotopic effects in titanium resonance ionization

Titanium isotope ratios have been measured by resonance ionization mass spectrometry (RIMS) with special emphasis on the nature of laser-induced isotopic selectivity. A pronounced wavelength dependence of even mass isotope ratios is caused by large nuclear volume effects near the magic neutron number 28 in ^(50)Ti . Optical isotope shifts, ranging from 0.07 to 0.21 cm^(-l), between ^(50)Ti and ^(46)Ti were measured for several transitions. The ^(50)Ti/^(46)Ti and ^(48)Ti/^(46)Ti ratios, nevertheless, exhibited only mass-dependent fractionation, in which the lighter Ti isotopes were enriched by ~2.5%/amu, when the laser operating parameters were properly controlled. Odd-even mass isotopic selectivity in the resonant ionization process was also examined for several transitions as a function of the laser polarization state and intensity. Under saturating conditions for a ΔJ= +1 transition and a high degree of laser depolarization for a ΔJ = 0 transition, the odd-even isotopic enhancement was reduced below the 2% level. The Ti isotope data agree with our previous results for Os and indicate that, by a careful choice of resonance transitions and laser operating parameters, isotope ratios can be measured accurately and reliably with RIMS

MapX: an In-Situ Mapping X-Ray Fluorescence Instrument for Detection of Biosignatures and Habitable Planetary Environments

The search for evidence of life or its processes on other worlds takes on two major themes: the detection of biosignatures indicating extinct or extant life, or the determination that an environment either has or once had the potential to harbor living organisms. In situ elemental imaging is useful in either case, since features on the mm to m scale reveal geological processes which may indicate past or present habitability. Further, biomineralization can leave traces in the morphology and element distribution of surfaces. The Mapping X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometer (MapX) is an in-situ instrument designed to identify these features on planetary surfaces [1]. Progress on instrument development, data analysis methods, and element quantification are presented