Internet data packet transport: from global topology to local queueing dynamics

We study structural feature and evolution of the Internet at the autonomous systems level. Extracting relevant parameters for the growth dynamics of the Internet topology, we construct a toy model for the Internet evolution, which includes the ingredients of multiplicative stochastic evolution of nodes and edges and adaptive rewiring of edges. The model reproduces successfully structural features of the Internet at a fundamental level. We also introduce a quantity called the load as the capacity of node needed for handling the communication traffic and study its time-dependent behavior at the hubs across years. The load at hub increases with network size $N$ as $\sim N^{1.8}$. Finally, we study data packet traffic in the microscopic scale. The average delay time of data packets in a queueing system is calculated, in particular, when the number of arrival channels is scale-free. We show that when the number of arriving data packets follows a power law distribution, $\sim n^{-\lambda}$, the queue length distribution decays as $n^{1-\lambda}$ and the average delay time at the hub diverges as $\sim N^{(3-\lambda)/(\gamma-1)}$ in the $N \to \infty$ limit when $2 < \lambda < 3$, $\gamma$ being the network degree exponent.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, submitted to International Journal of Bifurcation and Chao

Random Networks with given Rich-club Coefficient

In complex networks it is common to model a network or generate a surrogate network based on the conservation of the network's degree distribution. We provide an alternative network model based on the conservation of connection density within a set of nodes. This density is measure by the rich-club coefficient. We present a method to generate surrogates networks with a given rich-club coefficient. We show that by choosing a suitable local linking term, the generated random networks can reproduce the degree distribution and the mixing pattern of real networks. The method is easy to implement and produces good models of real networks.Comment: revised version, new figure

Early warning of infectious disease outbreaks on cattle-transport networks.

Surveillance of infectious diseases in livestock is traditionally carried out at the farms, which are the typical units of epidemiological investigations and interventions. In Central and Western Europe, high-quality, long-term time series of animal transports have become available and this opens the possibility to new approaches like sentinel surveillance. By comparing a sentinel surveillance scheme based on markets to one based on farms, the primary aim of this paper is to identify the smallest set of sentinel holdings that would reliably and timely detect emergent disease outbreaks in Swiss cattle. Using a data-driven approach, we simulate the spread of infectious diseases according to the reported or available daily cattle transport data in Switzerland over a four year period. Investigating the efficiency of surveillance at either market or farm level, we find that the most efficient early warning surveillance system [the smallest set of sentinels that timely and reliably detect outbreaks (small outbreaks at detection, short detection delays)] would be based on the former, rather than the latter. We show that a detection probability of 86% can be achieved by monitoring all 137 markets in the network. Additional 250 farm sentinels-selected according to their risk-need to be placed under surveillance so that the probability of first hitting one of these farm sentinels is at least as high as the probability of first hitting a market. Combining all markets and 1000 farms with highest risk of infection, these two levels together will lead to a detection probability of 99%. We conclude that the design of animal surveillance systems greatly benefits from the use of the existing abundant and detailed animal transport data especially in the case of highly dynamic cattle transport networks. Sentinel surveillance approaches can be tailored to complement existing farm risk-based and syndromic surveillance approaches

Phase transitions in contagion processes mediated by recurrent mobility patterns

Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations and recurrent flows and poorly modeled by the random diffusive dynamics generally used to study them. Here we develop a theoretical framework to analyze contagion within a network of locations where individuals recall their geographic origins. We find a phase transition between a regime in which the contagion affects a large fraction of the system and one in which only a small fraction is affected. This transition cannot be uncovered by continuous deterministic models due to the stochastic features of the contagion process and defines an invasion threshold that depends on mobility parameters, providing guidance for controlling contagion spread by constraining mobility processes. We recover the threshold behavior by analyzing diffusion processes mediated by real human commuting data.Comment: 20 pages of Main Text including 4 figures, 7 pages of Supplementary Information; Nature Physics (2011

Optimal Paths in Complex Networks with Correlated Weights: The World-wide Airport Network

We study complex networks with weights, $w_{ij}$, associated with each link connecting node $i$ and $j$. The weights are chosen to be correlated with the network topology in the form found in two real world examples, (a) the world-wide airport network, and (b) the {\it E. Coli} metabolic network. Here $w_{ij} \sim x_{ij} (k_i k_j)^\alpha$, where $k_i$ and $k_j$ are the degrees of nodes $i$ and $j$, $x_{ij}$ is a random number and $\alpha$ represents the strength of the correlations. The case $\alpha > 0$ represents correlation between weights and degree, while $\alpha < 0$ represents anti-correlation and the case $\alpha = 0$ reduces to the case of no correlations. We study the scaling of the lengths of the optimal paths, $\ell_{\rm opt}$, with the system size $N$ in strong disorder for scale-free networks for different $\alpha$. We calculate the robustness of correlated scale-free networks with different $\alpha$, and find the networks with $\alpha < 0$ to be the most robust networks when compared to the other values of $\alpha$. We propose an analytical method to study percolation phenomena on networks with this kind of correlation. We compare our simulation results with the real world-wide airport network, and we find good agreement

Controlling Pandemic Flu: The Value of International Air Travel Restrictions

BACKGROUND: Planning for a possible influenza pandemic is an extremely high priority, as social and economic effects of an unmitigated pandemic would be devastating. Mathematical models can be used to explore different scenarios and provide insight into potential costs, benefits, and effectiveness of prevention and control strategies under consideration. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A stochastic, equation-based epidemic model is used to study global transmission of pandemic flu, including the effects of travel restrictions and vaccination. Economic costs of intervention are also considered. The distribution of First Passage Times (FPT) to the United States and the numbers of infected persons in metropolitan areas worldwide are studied assuming various times and locations of the initial outbreak. International air travel restrictions alone provide a small delay in FPT to the U.S. When other containment measures are applied at the source in conjunction with travel restrictions, delays could be much longer. If in addition, control measures are instituted worldwide, there is a significant reduction in cases worldwide and specifically in the U.S. However, if travel restrictions are not combined with other measures, local epidemic severity may increase, because restriction-induced delays can push local outbreaks into high epidemic season. The per annum cost to the U.S. economy of international and major domestic air passenger travel restrictions is minimal: on the order of 0.8% of Gross National Product. CONCLUSIONS: International air travel restrictions may provide a small but important delay in the spread of a pandemic, especially if other disease control measures are implemented during the afforded time. However, if other measures are not instituted, delays may worsen regional epidemics by pushing the outbreak into high epidemic season. This important interaction between policy and seasonality is only evident with a global-scale model. Since the benefit of travel restrictions can be substantial while their costs are minimal, dismissal of travel restrictions as an aid in dealing with a global pandemic seems premature

Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene paleoceanography of the northwestern Ross Sea inferred from sediment core geochemistry and micropaleontology at Hallett Ridge

During the Late Pleistocene Holocene, the Ross Sea Ice Shelf exhibited strong spatial variability in relation to the atmospheric and oceanographic climatic variations. Despite being thoroughly investigated, the timing of the ice sheet retreat from the outer continental shelf since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) still remains controversial, mainly due to a lack of sediment cores with a robust chronostratigraphy. For this reason, the recent recovery of sediments containing a continuous occurrence of calcareous foraminifera provides the important opportunity to create a reliable age model and document the early deglacial phase in particular. Here we present a multiproxy study from a sediment core collected at the Hallett Ridge (1800 m of depth), where significant occurrences of calcareous planktonic and benthic foraminifera allow us to document the first evidence of the deglaciation after the LGM at about 20.2 ka. Our results suggest that the co-occurrence of large Neogloboquadrina pachyderma tests and abundant juvenile forms reflects the beginning of open-water conditions and coverage of seasonal sea ice. Our multiproxy approach based on diatoms, silicoflagellates, carbon and oxygen stable isotopes on N. pachyderma, sediment texture, and geochemistry indicates that abrupt warming occurred at approximately 17.8 ka, followed by a period of increasing biological productivity. During the Holocene, the exclusive dominance of agglutinated benthic foraminifera suggests that dissolution was the main controlling factor on calcareous test accumulation and preservation. Diatoms and silicoflagellates show that ocean conditions were variable during the middle Holocene and the beginning of the Neoglacial period at around 4 ka. In the Neoglacial, an increase in sand content testifies to a strengthening of bottom-water currents, supported by an increase in the abundance of the tycopelagic fossil diatom Paralia sulcata transported from the coastal regions, while an increase in ice-rafted debris suggests more glacial transport by icebergs

Heterogeneous length of stay of hosts’ movements and spatial epidemic spread

Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts’ distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts’ movements are being used to describe these processes, to investigate the conditions for propagation, and to predict the spatial spread. Several assumptions are being considered to model hosts’ movements, ranging from permanent movements to daily commuting, where the time spent at destination is either infinite or assumes a homogeneous fixed value, respectively. Prompted by empirical evidence, here we introduce a general metapopulation approach to model the disease dynamics in a spatially structured population where the mobility process is characterized by a heterogeneous length of stay. We show that large fluctuations of the length of stay, as observed in reality, can have a significant impact on the threshold conditions for the global epidemic invasion, thus altering model predictions based on simple assumptions, and displaying important public health implications

Web-based participatory surveillance of infectious diseases: the Influenzanet participatory surveillance experience.

To overcome the limitations of the state-of-the-art influenza surveillance systems in Europe, we established in 2008 a European-wide consortium aimed at introducing an innovative information and communication technology approach for a web-based surveillance system across different European countries, called Influenzanet. The system, based on earlier efforts in The Netherlands and Portugal, works with the participation of the population in each country to collect real-time information on the distribution of influenza-like illness cases through web surveys administered to volunteers reporting their symptoms (or lack of symptoms) every week during the influenza season. Such a large European-wide web-based monitoring infrastructure is intended to rapidly identify public health emergencies, contribute to understanding global trends, inform data-driven forecast models to assess the impact on the population, optimize the allocation of resources, and help in devising mitigation and containment measures. In this article, we describe the scientific and technological issues faced during the development and deployment of a flexible and readily deployable web tool capable of coping with the requirements of different countries for data collection, during either a public health emergency or an ordinary influenza season. Even though the system is based on previous successful experience, the implementation in each new country represented a separate scientific challenge. Only after more than 5 years of development are the existing platforms based on a plug-and-play tool that can be promptly deployed in any country wishing to be part of the Influenzanet network, now composed of The Netherlands, Belgium, Portugal, Italy, the UK, France, Sweden, Spain, Ireland, and Denmark

Epidemic centrality - is there an underestimated epidemic impact of network peripheral nodes?

In the study of disease spreading on empirical complex networks in SIR model, initially infected nodes can be ranked according to some measure of their epidemic impact. The highest ranked nodes, also referred to as "superspreaders", are associated to dominant epidemic risks and therefore deserve special attention. In simulations on studied empirical complex networks, it is shown that the ranking depends on the dynamical regime of the disease spreading. A possible mechanism leading to this dependence is illustrated in an analytically tractable example. In systems where the allocation of resources to counter disease spreading to individual nodes is based on their ranking, the dynamical regime of disease spreading is frequently not known before the outbreak of the disease. Therefore, we introduce a quantity called epidemic centrality as an average over all relevant regimes of disease spreading as a basis of the ranking. A recently introduced concept of phase diagram of epidemic spreading is used as a framework in which several types of averaging are studied. The epidemic centrality is compared to structural properties of nodes such as node degree, k-cores and betweenness. There is a growing trend of epidemic centrality with degree and k-cores values, but the variation of epidemic centrality is much smaller than the variation of degree or k-cores value. It is found that the epidemic centrality of the structurally peripheral nodes is of the same order of magnitude as the epidemic centrality of the structurally central nodes. The implications of these findings for the distributions of resources to counter disease spreading are discussed