MEASUREMENT OF PRICE RISK IN REVENUE INSURANCE: IMPLICATIONS OF DISTRIBUTIONAL ASSUMPTIONS

A variety of crop revenue insurance programs have recently been introduced. A critical component of revenue insurance contracts is quantifying the risk associated with stochastic prices. Forward-looking, market-based measures of price risk which are often available in form of options premia are preferable. Because such measures are not available for every crop, some current revenue insurance programs alternatively utilize historical price data to construct measures of price risk. This study evaluates the distributional implications of alternative methods for estimating price risk and deriving insurance premium rates. A variety of specification tests are employed to evaluate distributional assumptions. Conditional heteroskedasticity models are used to determine the extent to which price distributions may be characterized by nonconstant variances. In addition, these models are used to identify variables which may be used for conditioning distributions for rating purposes. Discrete mixtures of normals provide flexible parametric specifications capable of recognizing the skewness and kurtosis present in commodity pricesRisk and Uncertainty,

MEASUREMENT OF PRICE RISK IN REVENUE INSURANCE: IMPLICATIONS OF DISTRIBUTIONAL ASSUMPTIONS

A variety of crop revenue insurance programs is now available. These programs require measurement of price risk. This article investigates the appropriateness of distributional assumptions underlying current and proposed alternative actuarial methods. Our results find that prices are best modeled using a flexible mixture of normals distribution.Demand and Price Analysis, Risk and Uncertainty,

Anisotropy in the Cosmic Microwave Background at Degree Angular Scales: Python V Results

Observations of the microwave sky using the Python telescope in its fifth season of operation at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station in Antarctica are presented. The system consists of a 0.75 m off-axis telescope instrumented with a HEMT amplifier-based radiometer having continuum sensitivity from 37-45 GHz in two frequency bands. With a 0.91 deg x 1.02 deg beam the instrument fully sampled 598 deg^2 of sky, including fields measured during the previous four seasons of Python observations. Interpreting the observed fluctuations as anisotropy in the cosmic microwave background, we place constraints on the angular power spectrum of fluctuations in eight multipole bands up to l ~ 260. The observed spectrum is consistent with both the COBE experiment and previous Python results. There is no significant contamination from known foregrounds. The results show a discernible rise in the angular power spectrum from large (l ~ 40) to small (l ~ 200) angular scales. The shape of the observed power spectrum is not a simple linear rise but has a sharply increasing slope starting at l ~ 150.Comment: 5 page

Waterfowl -- Cooking Care.

12 p

Expansion, Geometry, and Gravity

In general-relativistic cosmological models, the expansion history, matter content, and geometry are closely intertwined. In this brief paper, we clarify the distinction between the effects of geometry and expansion history on the luminosity distance. We show that the cubic correction to the Hubble law, measured recently with high-redshift supernovae, is the first cosmological measurement, apart from the cosmic microwave background, that probes directly the effects of spatial curvature. We illustrate the distinction between geometry and expansion with a toy model for which the supernova results already indicate a curvature radius larger than the Hubble distance.Comment: 4 pages, 1 color figur

Evaluation of Extreme Thermal Processing Methods to Improve Nutrient Utilization of Low-Energy Diets for Finishing Pigs

A total of 270 pigs (PIC 337 × 1050; initially 115.7 lb) were used in a 79-d experiment to determine the effects of long-term conditioning or extrusion on finishing pig nutrient digestibility, growth performance, and carcass characteristics. There were 7 or 8 pigs per pen and 9 pens per treatment. Treatments included the same basal diet processed as: 1) nonprocessed mash; 2) pelleted with 45-s conditioner retention time; 3) pelleted with 90-s conditioner retention time; or 4) extruded. Diets were fed in three phases with the same low-energy diet formulation fed across treatments, containing 30% corn dried distillers grains with solubles and 19% wheat middlings. Pigs fed thermally processed feed, regardless of method, had improved ADG, F/G, ether extract, and crude fiber apparent total tract digestibility (P \u3c 0.05) compared to those fed the mash diet, but thermal processing did not affect ADFI . Extruded diets tended to improve F/G compared to pelleted diets (P = 0.09). Pigs fed any thermally processed treatment had greater HCW compared to those fed mash (P \u3c 0.05). Improvements in fat and crude fiber digestibility (P \u3c 0.05) led to improved caloric efficiency in pigs fed thermally processed diets. Thermal processing did not influence percentage yield, backfat, or loin depth when HCW was used as a covariate. However, pigs fed thermally processed diets had greater jowl fat iodine value compared to those fed mash diets (P \u3c 0.05). Electrical energy usage during thermal processing was recorded. Pigs fed mash diets had greater (P \u3c 0.05) cost per lb of gain, as well as reduced gain value and income over feed costs, compared to those fed thermally processed diets. This experiment confirms the benefits of thermally processing feeds to improve ADG and F/G, but compromises carcass fat iodine value. Additionally, this research suggests that more extreme thermal processing conditions may be used without hindering nutrient utilization

Economic Assessment of FMDv Releases from the National Bio and Agro Defense Facility

Citation: Pendell, D. L., Marsh, T. L., Coble, K. H., Lusk, J. L., & Szmania, S. C. (2015). Economic Assessment of FMDv Releases from the National Bio and Agro Defense Facility. Plos One, 10(6), 22. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0129134This study evaluates the economic consequences of hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease releases from the future National Bio and Agro Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas. Using an economic framework that estimates the impacts to agricultural firms and consumers, quantifies costs to non-agricultural activities in the epidemiologically impacted region, and assesses costs of response to the government, we find the distribution of economic impacts to be very significant. Furthermore, agricultural firms and consumers bear most of the impacts followed by the government and the regional non-agricultural firms

Early Onset of Franciscan Subduction

The Franciscan subduction complex of California is considered a type example of a subduction-accretion system, yet the age of subduction initiation and relationship to the tectonic history of western North America remain controversial. Estimates for the timing of Franciscan subduction initiation are largely based either indirectly on regional tectonic arguments or from the ages of high-grade blocks within mélange. Many of the high-grade blocks record counterclockwise pressure-temperature paths with early amphibolite overprinted by later eclogite and blueschist; however, their origin and significance with respect to subduction initiation have been debated. In contrast, some high-grade blocks show evidence for clockwise pressure-temperature paths and an early eclogite assemblage overprinted by later amphibolite Zircon U-Pb ages from inclusions in garnet and Lu-Hf estimates of initial garnet growth ages from these samples record early eclogite metamorphism at ~176 Ma. Matrix zircon U-Pb ages and Lu-Hf estimates of final garnet growth ages record a barroisite-amphibolite assemblage overprint of eclogite at ~160 Ma. Combined with petrologic data and existing geochronology, the data suggest that (1) Franciscan subduction was underway by no later than 180 Ma, (2) continuous subduction metamorphism occurred for at least 100 Ma, and (3) Franciscan subduction initiation predated the formation of the overlying Coast Range Ophiolite, supporting models that form the ophiolite above an east dipping Franciscan subduction zone