PLoS ONE / Differentiating self-projection from simulation during mentalizing : evidence from fMRI

We asked participants to predict which of two colors a similar other (student) and a dissimilar other (retiree) likes better. We manipulated if color-pairs were two hues from the same color-category (e.g. green) or two conceptually different colors (e.g. green versus blue). In the former case, the mental state that has to be represented (i.e., the percept of two different hues of green) is predominantly non-conceptual or phenomenal in nature, which should promote mental simulation as a strategy for mentalizing. In the latter case, the mental state (i.e. the percept of green versus blue) can be captured in thought by concepts, which facilitates the use of theories for mentalizing. In line with the self-projection hypothesis, we found that cortical midline areas including vmPFC / orbitofrontal cortex and precuneus were preferentially activated for mentalizing about a similar other. However, activation was not affected by the nature of the color-difference, suggesting that self-projection subsumes simulation-like processes but is not limited to them. This indicates that self-projection is a universal strategy applied in different contextsirrespective of the availability of theories for mentalizing. Along with midline activations linked to self-projection, we also observed activation in right lateral frontal and dorsal parietal areas showing a theory-like pattern. Taken together, this shows that mentalizing does not operate based on simulation or theory, but that both strategies are used concurrently to predict the choices of others.P20718-G1

Tracing the decision maker

This thesis focuses on two themes: a methodological and a decision making one. The methodological part introduces the development of a computerized information search tool. The program, called WebDiP (Web Decision Processes), enables the researcher to track participants while they are searching for information in a database. An experiment can be done either in the laboratory or on the Web. The first study identifies methodological shortcomings in an earlier software version and clarifies these problems with the introduction of WebDiP. The decision making part concentrates on the question whether the content (domain) of a decision has an influence on decision making, i.e., in the introduced process tracing approach, the information search. Three domains (business, law and medicine) are selected and for each domain two tasks developed. All six tasks (3 domains X 2 tasks per domain) have the same structure, probabilities and outcomes. In the second study a large scale online experiment with over 360 participants pursues the research question whether different domains elicit different search behaviours or differences in used information (type) are pursued. Results of this experiment illustrate problems within the assumption that one task is always representative for one domain. Furthermore, patterns are identified which are representative for a task but not necessarily for a domain. Both themes are discussed in light of the current literature on online research, process tracing and domain differences

Theory use in social predictions

AbstractIn a commentary to our article on the role of theory and simulation in social predictions, Krueger (2012) argues that the role of theory is neglected in social psychology for a good reason. He considers evidence indicating that people readily generalize from themselves to others. In response, we stress the role of theoretical knowledge in predicting other people’s behavior. Importantly, prediction by simulation and prediction by theory can lead to high as well as to low correlations between own and predicted behavior. This renders correlations largely useless for identifying the prediction strategy. We argue that prediction by theory is a serious alternative to prediction by simulation, and that reliance on correlation has led to a bias toward simulation

Comment on Zwaan, Etz, Lucas, and Donnellan (2017): Selecting target papers for replication

Randomness in the selection process of the to-be-replicated target papers is of critical importance for replication success or failure. If target papers are chosen due to ease of doing a replication, or because replicators doubt the reported findings, replications are likely to fail. To date, the selection of replication targets is biased

Out of sight – out of mind? Information acquisition patterns in risky choice framing

We investigate whether risky choice framing, i.e., the preference of a sure over an equivalent risky option when choosing among gains, and the reverse when choosing among losses, depends on redundancy and density of information available in a task. Redundancy, the saliency of missing information, and density, the description of options in one or multiple chunks, was manipulated in a matrix setup presented in MouselabWeb. On the choice level we found a framing effect only in setups with non-redundant information. On the process level outcomes attracted more acquisitions than probabilities, irrespective of redundancy. A dissociation between acquisition behavior and choice calls for a critical discussion of the limits of process-tracing measures for understanding and predicting choices in decision making tasks