Global warming will affect the maximum potential abundance of boreal plant species

Forecasting the impact of future global warming on biodiversity requires understanding how temperature limits the distribution of species. Here we rely on Liebig's Law of Minimum to estimate the effect of temperature on the maximum potential abundance that a species can attain at a certain location. We develop 95%‐quantile regressions to model the influence of effective temperature sum on the maximum potential abundance of 25 common understory plant species of Finland, along 868 nationwide plots sampled in 1985. Fifteen of these species showed a significant response to temperature sum that was consistent in temperature‐only models and in all‐predictors models, which also included cumulative precipitation, soil texture, soil fertility, tree species and stand maturity as predictors. For species with significant and consistent responses to temperature, we forecasted potential shifts in abundance for the period 2041–2070 under the IPCC A1B emission scenario using temperature‐only models. We predict major potential changes in abundance and average northward distribution shifts of 6–8 km yr−1. Our results emphasize inter‐specific differences in the impact of global warming on the understory layer of boreal forests. Species in all functional groups from dwarf shrubs, herbs and grasses to bryophytes and lichens showed significant responses to temperature, while temperature did not limit the abundance of 10 species. We discuss the interest of modelling the ‘maximum potential abundance’ to deal with the uncertainty in the predictions of realized abundances associated to the effect of environmental factors not accounted for and to dispersal limitations of species, among others. We believe this concept has a promising and unexplored potential to forecast the impact of specific drivers of global change under future scenarios.202

Thermal seasons in northern Europe in projected future climate

Global warming acts to prolong thermal summers and shorten winters. In this work, future changes in the lengths and timing of four thermal seasons in northern Europe, with threshold temperatures 0 and 10 degrees C, are derived from bias-adjusted output data from 23 CMIP5 global climate models. Three future periods and two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios are discussed. The focus is on the period 2040-2069 under RCP4.5, which approximately corresponds to a 2 degrees C global warming relative to the preindustrial era. By the period 2040-2069, the average length of the thermal summer increases by nearly 30 days relative to 1971-2000, and the thermal winter shortens by 30-60 days. The timing of the thermal springs advances while autumns delay. Within the model ensemble, there is a high linear correlation between the modelled annual-mean temperature increase and shifts in the thermal seasons. Thermal summers lengthen by about 10 days and winters shorten by 10-24 days per 1 degrees C of local warming. In the mid-21st century, about two-thirds of all summers (winters) are projected to be very long (very short) according to the baseline-period standards, with an anomaly greater than 20 days relative to the late-20th century temporal mean. The proportion of years without a thermal winter increases remarkably in the Baltic countries and southern Scandinavian peninsula. Implications of the changing thermal seasons on nature and human society are discussed in a literature review.Peer reviewe

Circulating cell-free DNA level predicts all-cause mortality independent of other predictors in the Health 2000 survey

publishedVersionPeer reviewe

A single dose of mirtazapine attenuates neural responses to self-referential processing

Increased self-focus is a core factor in the psychopathology of depression. Cortical midline structures (CMS) are implicated in the neurobiology of self, depression and antidepressant treatment response. Mirtazapine, an antidepressant that increases serotonin and norepinephrine release, enhances processing of positive and attenuates processing of negative emotional information in healthy volunteers after a single dose. These early changes, which are opposite to the negative information bias in depression, may be important for the therapeutic effect of mirtazapine. It nevertheless remains unresolved whether/how mirtazapine specifically influences processing of self-referential emotional information. Half of the healthy volunteers (n=15/30) received a single dose of mirtazapine, in an open-label design, two hours before functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), and the other half was scanned as a control group without medication. During fMRI the participants categorized positive and negative self-referential adjectives. Mirtazapine attenuated responses to self-referential processing in the medial prefrontal cortex and the anterior cingulate cortex. Mirtazapine further decreased responses to positive self-referential processing in the posterior cingulate cortex and parietal cortex. These decreased responses of the CMS suggest that mirtazapine may rapidly improve the ability of the CMS to down-regulate self-referential processing. In depressed patients, this could lead to decreased self-focus and rumination, contributing to the antidepressant effect.Peer reviewe

Personality disorders and suicide attempts in unipolar and bipolar mood disorders

Background: Comorbid personality disorders may predispose patients with mood disorders to suicide attempts (SAs), but factors mediating this effect are not well known. Methods: Altogether 597 patients from three prospective cohort studies (Vantaa Depression Study, Jorvi Bipolar Study, and Vantaa Primary Care Depression Study) were interviewed at baseline, at 18 months, and in VDS and PC-VDS at 5 years. Personality disorders (PDs) at baseline, number of previous SAs, life-charted time spent in major depressive episodes (MDEs), and precise timing of SAs during follow-up were determined and investigated. Results: Overall, 219 (36.7%) patients had a total of 718 lifetime SAs; 88 (14.7%) patients had 242 SAs during the prospective follow-up. Having any PD diagnosis increased the SA rate, both lifetime and prospectively evaluated, by 90% and 102%, respectively. All PD clusters increased the rate of new SAs, although cluster C PDs more than the others. After adjusting for time spent in MDEs, only cluster C further increased the SA rate (by 52%). Mediation analyses of PD effects on prospectively ascertained SAs indicated significant mediated effects through time at risk in MDEs, but also some direct effects. Limitations: Findings generalizable only to patients with mood disorders. Conclusions: Among mood disorder patients, comorbid PDs increase the risk of SAs to approximately two-fold. The excess risk is mostly due to patients with comorbid PDs spending more time in depressive episodes than those without. Consequently, risk appears highest for PDs that most predispose to chronicity and recurrences. However, also direct risk-modifying effects of PDs exist. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Which activities threaten independent living of elderly when becoming problematic : inspiration for meaningful service robot functionality

Purpose: In light of the increasing elderly population and the growing demand for home care, the potential of robot support is given increasing attention. In this paper, an inventory of activities was made that threaten independent living of elderly when becoming problematic. Results will guide the further development of an existing service robot, the Care-O-bot®. Method: A systematic literature search of PubMed was performed, focused on the risk factors for institutionalization. Additionally, focus group sessions were conducted in the Netherlands, United Kingdom and France. In these focus group sessions, problematic activities threatening the independence of elderly people were discussed. Three separate target groups were included in the focus group sessions: (1) elderly persons (n = 41), (2) formal caregivers (n = 40) and (3) informal caregivers (n = 32). Results: Activities within the International Classification of Functioning domains mobility, self-care, and interpersonal interaction and relationships were found to be the most problematic. Conclusions: A distinct set of daily activities was identified that may threaten independent living, but no single activity could be selected as the main activity causing a loss of independence as it is often a combination of problematic activities that is person-specific. Supporting the problematic activities need not involve a robotic solution Read More: http://informahealthcare.com/doi/abs/10.3109/17483107.2013.840861Peer reviewe

Worldwide survey of awareness and needs concerning reanalyses, and respondents views on climate services

A worldwide online survey about user awareness of reanalyses and climate services was conducted in the period from November 2013 to February 2014 by the Coordinating Earth Observation Data Validation for Re-Analysis for Climate Services (CORE-CLIMAX) project. The 2,578 respondents were mostly users of global reanalyses [particularly the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) reanalyses]. They answered queries arranged in 11 sections by choosing from preprepared check box responses and left several hundred free comments. Here, we analyze responses related to characteristics of reanalysis data and the perceived obstacles for using reanalysis in climate services. After examining responses from all survey participants, we focus on the answers from subgroups working in specific disciplines related to natural resource management: freshwater, agriculture and food production, forestry, and energy. Although the survey attracted mostly self-selected respondents from the education and public research and development (R&D) sectors, one-third of the energy-related subgroup were from the private sector. A large majority (91%) of the respondents use ECMWF reanalyses, but other reanalysis products are also widely used by them. Respondents expressed desire for reanalysis development in the areas of 1) training and online plotting tools, 2) more frequent updates, 3) explanations about uncertainties (the energy subgroup emphasizes this), 4) smaller biases, 5) less restrictive data policy, and 6) higher temporal and spatial resolution (the energy and water subgroups highlight this). Additionally, the subgroups (excluding energy) expressed interest in including in future climate services activities for applied weather and climate research for impact assessment and/or statistical impact analyses for improving weather warnings and their criteria.Peer reviewe

Circulating cell-free DNA level predicts all-cause mortality independent of other predictors in the Health 2000 survey

Increased levels of circulating cell-free DNA (cf-DNA) are associated with and predict poor health outcomes. However, its predictive ability for mortality in population-based samples remains understudied. We analysed the capability of cf-DNA to predict all-cause mortality and assessed whether it adds predictive value on top of the other risk factors in the Health 2000 survey (n = 1,257, 46-76 years of age, 15-years-follow-up, 18% deceased). When analysed in a multivariate model with the other factors that independently predicted mortality in the sample (age, gender, self-rated health, smoking and plasma levels of glucose and adiponectin), increases in cf-DNA levels were associated with increased risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR] for 0.1 mu g increase in cf-DNA: 1.017, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.008-1.026, p = 0.0003). Inclusion of cf-DNA in the model improved the model fit and discrimination. Stratifying the analysis by cardiovascular disease (CVD) status indicated that cf-DNA predicted mortality equally well in individuals with (HR 1.018, 95% CI 1.008-1.026, p = 0.002) and without (HR 1.018, 95% CI 1.001-1.035, p = 0.033) CVD. In conclusion, our study indicates that cf-DNA level predicts mortality in middle-aged and older individuals, also among those with established CVD, and adds significant value to mortality prediction. Our results thus underscore the role of cf-DNA as a viable marker of health

Kestävät jalat : Kettujen jalkaterveyden kehityshanke (2016-2018)

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