Jenseits fixer Lagemaße: Die Change-Point-Analyse als Mittel zur empirischen Einteilung von Gruppen

Im Fokus dieses Beitrages stehen Vorstellung und Elaboration der Change-Point-Analyse (CPA), eines alternativen empirischen Verfahrens zur Klassifikation kontinuierlicher Variablen auf der Grundlage von flexiblen Lagemaßen. Die Argumentation beginnt mit der Feststellung, dass in verschiedenen Bereichen der Kommunikationswissenschaft auf Gruppenbildungen zurückgegriffen wird. Neben normativ definierten Einteilungen werden dabei häufig anerkannte fixe Lagemaße wie der Median, der Mittelwert, Terzile oder Pentile (Extremgruppen) verwendet. Diese fixen Lagemaße stehen jedoch aus verschiedenen Gründen in der Kritik. Mit dem in der Statistik entwickelten Change-Point-Ansatz liegt ein auf flexiblen Lagemaßen beruhendes Verfahren vor, das dieser Kritik begegnen kann. Anhand einer Sekundäranalyse einer Befragung von Wählerinnen und Wählern vor der Bundestagswahl 2009 wird die Differenzierungsleistung der Change-Point-Analyse im Vergleich zu den etablierten Kriterien am Beispiel des politischen Involvements herausgearbeitet.The focus of this article is the presentation and elaboration of change point analysis (CPA), an alternative empirical method for classifying continuous variables based on flexible measures of location. The argument starts with the observation that group classifications are used in various fields of communication science. In addition to normatively defined classifications, established fixed measures of location such as median, mean, terciles, or pentiles (extreme groups) are often used. However, these fixed measures of location are criticized for various reasons. The change point approach developed in the field of statistics provides a method based on flexible measures of location that can counter these issues. Based on a secondary analysis of a voter survey conducted before and after the 2009 German federal election, the differentiating power of the change point analysis compared to the established criteria is elaborated using the example of political involvement

Jenseits fixer Lagemaße: Die Change-Point-Analyse als Mittel zur empirischen Einteilung von Gruppen

Im Fokus dieses Beitrages stehen Vorstellung und Elaboration der Change-Point-Analyse (CPA), eines alternativen empirischen Verfahrens zur Klassifikation kontinuierlicher Variablen auf der Grundlage von flexiblen Lagemaßen. Die Argumentation beginnt mit der Feststellung, dass in verschiedenen Bereichen der Kommunikationswissenschaft auf Gruppenbildungen zurückgegriffen wird. Neben normativ definierten Einteilungen werden dabei häufig anerkannte fixe Lagemaße wie der Median, der Mittelwert, Terzile oder Pentile (Extremgruppen) verwendet. Diese fixen Lagemaße stehen jedoch aus verschiedenen Gründen in der Kritik. Mit dem in der Statistik entwickelten Change-Point-Ansatz liegt ein auf flexiblen Lagemaßen beruhendes Verfahren vor, das dieser Kritik begegnen kann. Anhand einer Sekundäranalyse einer Befragung von Wählerinnen und Wählern vor der Bundestagswahl 2009 wird die Differenzierungsleistung der Change-Point-Analyse im Vergleich zu den etablierten Kriterien am Beispiel des politischen Involvements herausgearbeitet.The focus of this article is the presentation and elaboration of change point analysis (CPA), an alternative empirical method for classifying continuous variables based on flexible measures of location. The argument starts with the observation that group classifications are used in various fields of communication science. In addition to normatively defined classifications, established fixed measures of location such as median, mean, terciles, or pentiles (extreme groups) are often used. However, these fixed measures of location are criticized for various reasons. The change point approach developed in the field of statistics provides a method based on flexible measures of location that can counter these issues. Based on a secondary analysis of a voter survey conducted before and after the 2009 German federal election, the differentiating power of the change point analysis compared to the established criteria is elaborated using the example of political involvement

The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report.

In an era of mass migration, social scientists, populist parties and social movements raise concerns over the future of immigration-destination societies. What impacts does this have on policy and social solidarity? Comparative cross-national research, relying mostly on secondary data, has findings in different directions. There is a threat of selective model reporting and lack of replicability. The heterogeneity of countries obscures attempts to clearly define data-generating models. P-hacking and HARKing lurk among standard research practices in this area.This project employs crowdsourcing to address these issues. It draws on replication, deliberation, meta-analysis and harnessing the power of many minds at once. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative carries two main goals, (a) to better investigate the linkage between immigration and social policy preferences across countries, and (b) to develop crowdsourcing as a social science method. The Executive Report provides short reviews of the area of social policy preferences and immigration, and the methods and impetus behind crowdsourcing plus a description of the entire project. Three main areas of findings will appear in three papers, that are registered as PAPs or in process

Stadt, Land, Wahl: Welchen Einfluss hat der Wohnort auf die Wahlentscheidung bei der Bundestagswahl 2021?

Bisherige Forschung und die öffentliche Debatte lassen vermuten, dass Menschen aus ländlichen Regionen eher rechtspopulistisch wählen als Menschen in nicht-ländlichen Regionen. Gab es diesen Stadt-Land-Unterschied auch bei der Bundestagswahl 2021? Welche Rollen spielen die wirtschaftliche Situation und die infrastrukturelle Versorgung des Wohnorts bzw. dessen Lage in West- oder Ostdeutschland? Durch die Verknüpfung von Umfragedaten und Informationen zu den Stadt- und Landkreisen der befragten Personen präsentieren wir visuelle und statistische Analysen zum Einfluss des Wohnorts auf die Wahlentscheidung. Wir zeigen, dass einzelne Merkmale des Wohnortes mit einer erhöhten Chance der AfD-Wahl einhergehen. Alle örtlichen Erklärungsfaktoren zusammengenommen, sticht der positive Zusammenhang zwischen AfD-Wahl und Wohnort in einem Kreis in Ostdeutschland heraus.Prior research and public discourse suggest that people from rural regions are more likely to vote for right-wing populist parties than people in non-rural regions. Did this urban-rural difference also exist in the 2021 federal election? What roles do the economic situation and infrastructural provision of the place of residence or its location in East or West Germany play? By linking survey data and information on the urban and rural districts of respondents, we present visual and statistical analyses of the influence of place of residence on voting decisions. We show that individual characteristics of the place of residence are associated with an increased chance of voting for the AfD. Taking all local explanatory factors together, the positive association between voting for the AfD and place of residence in a district in eastern Germany stands out

A European perspective on alternatives to animal testing for environmental hazard identification and risk assessment

Tests with vertebrates are an integral part of environmental hazard identification and risk assessment of chemicals, plant protection products, pharmaceuticals, biocides, feed additives and effluents. These tests raise ethical and economic concerns and are considered as inappropriate for assessing all of the substances and effluents that require regulatory testing. Hence, there is a strong demand for replacement, reduction and refinement strategies and methods. However, until now alternative approaches have only rarely been used in regulatory settings. This review provides an overview on current regulations of chemicals and the requirements for animal tests in environmental hazard and risk assessment. It aims to highlight the potential areas for alternative approaches in environmental hazard identification and risk assessment. Perspectives and limitations of alternative approaches to animal tests using vertebrates in environmental toxicology, i.e., mainly fish and amphibians, are discussed. Free access to existing (proprietary) animal test data, availability of validated alternative methods and a practical implementation of conceptual approaches such as the Adverse Outcome Pathways and Integrated Testing Strategies were identified as major requirements towards the successful development and implementation of alternative approaches. Although the focus of the article is on European regulations, the considerations and conclusions are of global relevance.JRC.I.5-Systems Toxicolog

A European perspective on alternatives to animal testing for environmental hazard identification and risk assessment

Tests with vertebrates are an integral part of environmental hazard identification and risk assessment of chemicals, plant protection products, pharmaceuticals, biocides, feed additives and effluents. These tests raise ethical and economic concerns and are considered as inappropriate for assessing all of the substances and effluents that require regulatory testing. Hence, there is a strong demand for replacement, reduction and refinement strategies and methods. However, until now alternative approaches have only rarely been used in regulatory settings. This review provides an overview on current regulations of chemicals and the requirements for animal tests in environmental hazard and risk assessment. It aims to highlight the potential areas for alternative approaches in environmental hazard identification and risk assessment. Perspectives and limitations of alternative approaches to animal tests using vertebrates in environmental toxicology, i.e. mainly fish and amphibians, are discussed. Free access to existing (proprietary) animal test data, availability of validated alternative methods and a practical implementation of conceptual approaches such as the Adverse Outcome Pathways and Integrated Testing Strategies were identified as major requirements towards the successful development and implementation of alternative approaches. Although this article focusses on European regulations, its considerations and conclusions are of global relevance. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved