predator-size-prey-size-data

This csv contains the data used for the predator size - prey size analysis

predator-size-prey-size-metadata

This csv contains the column names and descriptions fo

gape-size-body-size-data

This csv contains the data for the gape size - body size analysis

Global patterns and impacts of El Niño events on coral reefs: A meta-analysis

<div><p>Impacts of global climate change on coral reefs are being amplified by pulse heat stress events, including El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Despite reports of extensive coral bleaching and up to 97% coral mortality induced by El Niño events, a quantitative synthesis of the nature, intensity, and drivers of El Niño and La Niña impacts on corals is lacking. Herein, we first present a global meta-analysis of studies quantifying the effects of El Niño/La Niña-warming on corals, surveying studies from both the primary literature and International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS) Proceedings. Overall, the strongest signal for El Niño/La Niña-associated coral bleaching was long-term mean temperature; bleaching decreased with decreasing long-term mean temperature (n = 20 studies). Additionally, coral cover losses during El Niño/La Niña were shaped by localized maximum heat stress and long-term mean temperature (n = 28 studies). Second, we present a method for quantifying coral heat stress which, for any coral reef location in the world, allows extraction of remotely-sensed degree heating weeks (DHW) for any date (since 1982), quantification of the maximum DHW, and the time lag since the maximum DHW. Using this method, we show that the 2015/16 El Niño event instigated unprecedented global coral heat stress across the world's oceans. With El Niño events expected to increase in frequency and severity this century, it is imperative that we gain a clear understanding of how these thermal stress anomalies impact different coral species and coral reef regions. We therefore finish with recommendations for future coral bleaching studies that will foster improved syntheses, as well as predictive and adaptive capacity to extreme warming events.</p></div

Effect size and moderators of top coral bleaching and coral cover models (p-value < 0.001 noted with ***, p-value <0.05 noted with *).

<p>a) Overall effect size (standardized mean difference ± 95% confidence intervals) for coral bleaching (black; including measured and simulated before-bleaching values) and coral cover loss (red; up to one year after maximum heat stress). El Niño/La Niña warming significantly increases coral bleaching and significant decreases coral cover. Significant moderators in b) the coral bleaching model and c) the coral cover model. MaxDHW is maximum DHW experienced by reef during the present El Niño event, SSTmean is the long-term mean temperature, and TimeLag is the time since maximum DHW occurred. A colon represents an interaction between two moderators.</p

El Niño events with the greatest heat stress.

<p>Both figures show which El Niño event caused the greatest maximum DHW for each area. Note that this figure does not demonstrate bleaching response, only maximum cumulative heat stress per El Niño event. The events are color-coded by year. The 1997/1998 El Niño event (green) was the most severe event in the Eastern Pacific around the South American coast. a) All El Niño events from 1982–2010, showing how much heterogeneity there is in the geographic distribution of the most extreme heat stress. b) All El Niño events since 1982, including the 2015–2016 El Niño event, demonstrating the coral heat stress homogenization that occurred during this most recent El Niño/La Niña warming event.</p

Definition of derived variables included in our new data product.

<p>All variables are computed for a user-provided latitude/longitude and date, which can include any time point since 1984. With the exception of the first three months of 1982, we also calculate these same parameters for 1982–1983, although the beginning of usable data is in January 1982, so calculation of maximum DHW and time lag are restricted to within this window. Data are accessible at <a href="http://www.CoralStress.org" target="_blank">www.CoralStress.org</a>.</p

Study locations included in this global meta-analysis.

<p>Studies reporting changes in coral bleaching due to El Niño/La Niña warming are marked in white, and studies reporting changes in coral cover due to El Niño/La Niña warming are marked in red. The background color scale represents the number of data points that were extracted from each location. Data from non-El Niño/La Niña bleaching events, and from papers excluded from this meta-analysis are not included on this map.</p

Top model results for coral bleaching (including measured and simulated before-bleaching values) and coral cover loss (up to one year after maximum heat stress).

<p>Top model results for coral bleaching (including measured and simulated before-bleaching values) and coral cover loss (up to one year after maximum heat stress).</p

Human, Oceanographic and Habitat Drivers of Central and Western Pacific Coral Reef Fish Assemblages

<div><p>Coral reefs around US- and US-affiliated Pacific islands and atolls span wide oceanographic gradients and levels of human impact. Here we examine the relative influence of these factors on coral reef fish biomass, using data from a consistent large-scale ecosystem monitoring program conducted by scientific divers over the course of >2,000 hours of underwater observation at 1,934 sites, across ~40 islands and atolls. Consistent with previous smaller-scale studies, our results show sharp declines in reef fish biomass at relatively low human population density, followed by more gradual declines as human population density increased further. Adjusting for other factors, the highest levels of oceanic productivity among our study locations were associated with more than double the biomass of reef fishes (including ~4 times the biomass of planktivores and piscivores) compared to islands with lowest oceanic productivity. Our results emphasize that coral reef areas do not all have equal ability to sustain large reef fish stocks, and that what is natural varies significantly amongst locations. Comparisons of biomass estimates derived from visual surveys with predicted biomass in the absence of humans indicated that total reef fish biomass was depleted by 61% to 69% at populated islands in the Mariana Archipelago; by 20% to 78% in the Main Hawaiian islands; and by 21% to 56% in American Samoa.</p></div