Effect size and moderators of top coral bleaching and coral cover models (p-value < 0.001 noted with ***, p-value <0.05 noted with *).

Abstract

<p>a) Overall effect size (standardized mean difference ± 95% confidence intervals) for coral bleaching (black; including measured and simulated before-bleaching values) and coral cover loss (red; up to one year after maximum heat stress). El Niño/La Niña warming significantly increases coral bleaching and significant decreases coral cover. Significant moderators in b) the coral bleaching model and c) the coral cover model. MaxDHW is maximum DHW experienced by reef during the present El Niño event, SSTmean is the long-term mean temperature, and TimeLag is the time since maximum DHW occurred. A colon represents an interaction between two moderators.</p