Iraq and Jihadist Terrorists: A Review Essay; Strategic Insights, v. 3, issue 7 (July 2004)

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Survivability Versus Time

Develop Survivability vs Time Model as a decision-evaluation tool to assess various emergency egress methods used at Launch Complex 39B (LC 39B) and in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) on NASAs Kennedy Space Center. For each hazard scenario, develop probability distributions to address statistical uncertainty resulting in survivability plots over time and composite survivability plots encompassing multiple hazard scenarios

Human pathogen shown to cause disease in the threatened elkhorn coral Acropora palmata

Coral reefs are in severe decline. Infections by the human pathogen Serratia marcescens have contributed to precipitous losses in the common Caribbean elkhorn coral, Acropora palmata, culminating in its listing under the United States Endangered Species Act. During a 2003 outbreak of this coral disease, called acroporid serratiosis (APS), a unique strain of the pathogen, Serratia marcescens strain PDR60, was identified from diseased A. palmata, human wastewater, the non-host coral Siderastrea siderea and the corallivorous snail Coralliophila abbreviata. In order to examine humans as a source and other marine invertebrates as vectors and/or reservoirs of the APS pathogen, challenge experiments were conducted with A. palmata maintained in closed aquaria to determine infectivity of strain PDR60 from reef and wastewater sources. Strain PDR60 from wastewater and diseased A. palmata caused disease signs in elkhorn coral in as little as four and five days, respectively, demonstrating that wastewater is a definitive source of APS and identifying human strain PDR60 as a coral pathogen through fulfillment of Koch\u27s postulates. A. palmata inoculated with strain PDR60 from C. abbreviata showed limited virulence, with one of three inoculated fragments developing APS signs within 13 days. Strain PDR60 from non-host coral S. siderea showed a delayed pathogenic effect, with disease signs developing within an average of 20 days. These results suggest that C. abbreviata and non-host corals may function as reservoirs or vectors of the APS pathogen. Our results provide the first example of a marine “reverse zoonosis” involving the transmission of a human pathogen (S. marcescens) to a marine invertebrate (A. palmata). These findings underscore the interaction between public health practices and environmental health indices such as coral reef survival

Human Pathogen Shown to Cause Disease in the Threatened Elkhorn Coral Acropora palmata

Coral reefs are in severe decline. Infections by the human pathogen Serratia marcescens have contributed to precipitous losses in the common Caribbean elkhorn coral, Acropora palmata, culminating in its listing under the United States Endangered Species Act. During a 2003 outbreak of this coral disease, called acroporid serratiosis (APS), a unique strain of the pathogen, Serratia marcescens strain PDR60, was identified from diseased A. palmata, human wastewater, the non-host coral Siderastrea siderea and the corallivorous snail Coralliophila abbreviata. In order to examine humans as a source and other marine invertebrates as vectors and/or reservoirs of the APS pathogen, challenge experiments were conducted with A. palmata maintained in closed aquaria to determine infectivity of strain PDR60 from reef and wastewater sources. Strain PDR60 from wastewater and diseased A. palmata caused disease signs in elkhorn coral in as little as four and five days, respectively, demonstrating that wastewater is a definitive source of APS and identifying human strain PDR60 as a coral pathogen through fulfillment of Koch\u27s postulates. A. palmata inoculated with strain PDR60 from C. abbreviata showed limited virulence, with one of three inoculated fragments developing APS signs within 13 days. Strain PDR60 from non-host coral S. siderea showed a delayed pathogenic effect, with disease signs developing within an average of 20 days. These results suggest that C. abbreviata and non-host corals may function as reservoirs or vectors of the APS pathogen. Our results provide the first example of a marine \u27\u27reverse zoonosis\u27\u27 involving the transmission of a human pathogen (S. marcescens) to a marine invertebrate (A. palmata). These findings underscore the interaction between public health practices and environmental health indices such as coral reef survival

Robust Exploration and Commercial Missions to the Moon Using LANTR Propulsion and Lunar Liquid Oxygen Derived from FeO-Rich Pyroclastic Deposits

The nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) has frequently been identified as a key space asset required for the human exploration of Mars. This proven technology can also provide the affordable access through cislunar space necessary for commercial development and sustained human presence on the Moon. It is a demonstrated technology capable of generating both high thrust and high specific impulse (Isp approx.900 s) twice that of todays best chemical rockets. Nuclear lunar transfer vehicles consisting of a propulsion stage using three approx.16.5 klbf Small Nuclear Rocket Engines (SNREs), an in-line propellant tank, plus the payload can enable a variety of reusable lunar missions. These include cargo delivery and crewed lunar landing missions. Even weeklong tourism missions carrying passengers into lunar orbit for a day of sightseeing and picture taking are possible. The NTR can play an important role in the next phase of lunar exploration and development by providing a robust in-space lunar transportation system (LTS) that can allow initial outposts to evolve into settlements supported by a variety of commercial activities such as in-situ propellant production used to supply strategically located propellant depots and transportation nodes. The use of lunar liquid oxygen (LLO2) derived from iron oxide (FeO)-rich volcanic glass beads, found in numerous pyroclastic deposits on the Moon, can significantly reduce the launch mass requirements from Earth by enabling reusable, surface-based lunar landing vehicles (LLVs) using liquid oxygen/hydrogen (LO2/H2) chemical rocket engines. Afterwards, a LO2/H2 propellant depot can be established in lunar equatorial orbit to supply the LTS. At this point a modified version of the conventional NTR called the LOX-augmented NTR, or LANTR is introduced into the LTS allowing bipropellant operation and leveraging the mission benefits of refueling with lunar-derived propellants for Earth return. The bipropellant LANTR engine utilizes the large divergent section of its nozzle as an afterburner into which oxygen is injected and supersonically combusted with nuclear preheated hydrogen emerging from the engines choked sonic throat - essentially scramjet propulsion in reverse. By varying the oxygen-to-hydrogen mixture ratio, LANTR engines can operate over a range of thrust and Isp values while the reactor core power level remains relatively constant. A LANTR-based LTS offers unique mission capabilities including short transit time crewed cargo transports. Even a commuter shuttle service may be possible allowing one-way trip times to and from the Moon on the order of 36 hours or less. If only 1 of the extracted LLO2 propellant from identified resource sites were available for use in lunar orbit, such a supply could support daily commuter flights to the Moon for many thousands of years! The proposed paper outlines an evolutionary architecture and examines a variety of mission types and transfer vehicle designs, along with the increasing demands on LLO2 production as mission complexity and (Delta)V requirements increase. A comparison of vehicle features and engine operating characteristics, for both NTR and LANTR engines, is also provided along with a discussion of the propellant production and mining requirements associated with using FeO-rich volcanic glass as source material

Robust Exploration and Commercial Missions to the Moon Using LANTR Propulsion and In-Situ Propellants Derived From Lunar Polar Ice (LPI) Deposits

Since the 1960s, scientists have conjectured that water icecould survive in the cold, permanently shadowed craters located at the Moons poles Clementine (1994), Lunar Prospector (1998),Chandrayaan-1 (2008), and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) and Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite(LCROSS) (2009) lunar probes have provided data indicating the existence of large quantities of water ice at the lunar poles The Mini-SAR onboard Chandrayaan-1discovered more than 40 permanently shadowed craters near the lunar north pole that are thought to contain 600 million metric tons of water ice. Using neutron spectrometer data, the Lunar Prospector science team estimated a water ice content (1.5 +-0.8 wt in the regolith) found in the Moons polar cold trap sand estimated the total amount of water at both poles at 2 billion metric tons Using Mini-RF and spectrometry data, the LRO LCROSS science team estimated the water ice content in the regolith in the south polar region to be 5.6 +-2.9 wt. On the basis of the above scientific data, it appears that the water ice content can vary from 1-10 wt and the total quantity of LPI at both poles can range from 600 million to 2 billion metric tons NTP offers significant benefits for lunar missions and can take advantage of the leverage provided from using LDPs when they become available by transitioning to LANTR propulsion. LANTR provides a variablethrust and Isp capability, shortens burn times and extends engine life, and allows bipropellant operation The combination of LANTR and LDP has performance capability equivalent to that of a hypothetical gaseousfuel core NTR (effective Isp 1575 s) and can lead to a robust LTS with unique mission capabilities that include short transit time crewed cargo transports and routine commuter flights to the Moon The biggest challenge to making this vision a reality will be the production of increasing amounts of LDP andthe development of propellant depots in LEO, LLO and LPO. An industry-operated, privately financed venture, with NASA as its initial customer, might provide a possible blueprint for future development and operation With industry interested in developing cislunar space and commerce, and competitive forces at work, the timeline for developing this capability could well be accelerated, quicker than any of us can imagine, and just the beginning of things to come

Robust Exploration and Commercial Missions to the Moon Using LANTR Propulsion and In-Situ Propellants Derived from Lunar Polar Ice (LPI) Deposits

The nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) has frequently been identified as a key space asset required for the human exploration of Mars. This proven technology can also provide the affordable access through cislunar space necessary for commercial development and sustained human presence on the Moon. It is a demonstrated technology capable of generating both high thrust and high specific impulse (Isp 900 s) twice that of todays best chemical rockets. Nuclear lunar transfer vehicles consisting of a propulsion stage using three approx.16.5 klbf "Small Nuclear Rocket Engines (SNREs)", an in-line propellant tank, plus the payload can enable a variety of reusable lunar missions. These include cargo delivery and crewed lunar landing missions. Even weeklong "tourism" missions carrying passengers into lunar orbit for a day of sightseeing and picture taking are possible. The NTR can play an important role in the next phase of lunar exploration and development by providing a robust in-space lunar transportation system (LTS) that can allow initial outposts to evolve into settlements supported by a variety of commercial activities such as in-situ propellant production used to supply strategically located propellant depots and transportation nodes. The processing of LPI deposits (estimated to be approx. 2 billion metric tons) for propellant production - specifically liquid oxygen (LO2) and hydrogen (LH2) can significantly reduce the launch mass requirements from Earth and can enable reusable, surface-based lunar landing vehicles (LLVs) using LO2/LH2 chemical rocket engines. Afterwards, LO2/LH2 propellant depots can be established in lunar polar and equatorial orbits to supply the LTS. At this point a modified version of the conventional NTR called the LO2-augmented NTR, or LANTR would be introduced into the LTS allowing bipropellant operation and leveraging the mission benefits of refueling with lunar-derived propellants (LDPs) for Earth return. The bipropellant LANTR engine utilizes the large divergent section of its nozzle as an afterburner into which oxygen is injected and supersonically combusted with nuclear preheated hydrogen emerging from the engines choked sonic throat essentially scramjet propulsion in reverse. By varying the oxygen-to-hydrogen mixture ratio, LANTR engines can operate over a range of thrust and Isp values while the reactor core power level remains relatively constant. A LANTR-based LTS offers unique mission capabilities including short transit time crewed cargo transports. Even a commuter shuttle service may be possible allowing one-way trip times to and from the Moon on the order of 36 hours or less. If only 1 of the postulated water ice trapped in deep shadowed craters at the lunar poles were available for use in lunar orbit, such a supply could support daily commuter flights to the Moon for many thousands of years! The proposed paper outlines an evolutionary mission architecture and examines a variety of mission types and transfer vehicle designs, along with the increasing demands on LDP production as mission complexity and delta V requirements increase. A comparison of vehicle features and engine operating characteristics are also provided together with a discussion of the propellant production and mining requirements, and issues, associated with using LPI as the source material