The Inuence of Misspecified Covariance on False Discovery Control when Using Posterior Probabilities

This paper focuses on the influence of a misspecified covariance structure on false discovery rate for the large scale multiple testing problem. Specifically, we evaluate the influence on the marginal distribution of local fdr statistics, which are used in many multiple testing procedures and related to Bayesian posterior probabilities. Explicit forms of the marginal distributions under both correctly specified and incorrectly specified models are derived. The Kullback-Leibler divergence is used to quantify the influence caused by a misspecification. Several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the influence. A real spatio-temporal data on soil humidity is discussed.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figure

Social Roles, Interactions and Community Sustainability in Social Q&A Sites: A Resource-based Perspective

Online tech support communities have become valuable channels for users to seek and provide solutions to specific problems. From the resource exchange perspective, the sustainability of a social system is contingent upon the size of its members as well as their communication activities. To further extend the resource-based model, the current research identifies a variety of social roles in a large tech support Q&A forum and examines longitudinal changes in the community’s structure based on the identification. Moreover, this study also investigates the relationship between the community’s functionality and its traffic. Results suggest that the proportion of unsolved questions negatively impacts the number of future incoming questions and the outcome of a given question is not only dependent on users’ interactions within the discussion, but also on the community activities preceding the question. These observations can help community managers to improve system design and task allocation

The Apparently Decaying Orbit of WASP-12

We present new transit and occultation times for the hot Jupiter WASP-12b. The data are compatible with a constant period derivative: $\dot{P}=-29 \pm 3$ ms yr$^{-1}$ and $P/\dot{P}= 3.2$ Myr. However, it is difficult to tell whether we have observed orbital decay, or a portion of a 14-year apsidal precession cycle. If interpreted as decay, the star's tidal quality parameter $Q_\star$ is about $2\times 10^5$. If interpreted as precession, the planet's Love number is $0.44\pm 0.10$. Orbital decay appears to be the more parsimonious model: it is favored by $\Delta\chi^2=5.5$ despite having two fewer free parameters than the precession model. The decay model implies that WASP-12 was discovered within the final $\sim$0.2% of its existence, which is an unlikely coincidence but harmonizes with independent evidence that the planet is nearing disruption. Precession does not invoke any temporal coincidence, but does require some mechanism to maintain an eccentricity of $\approx$0.002 in the face of rapid tidal circularization. To distinguish unequivocally between decay and precession will probably require a few more years of monitoring. Particularly helpful will be occultation timing in 2019 and thereafter.Comment: 10 pages [AAS journals, in press, note added in proof

AESTRA: Deep Learning for Precise Radial Velocity Estimation in the Presence of Stellar Activity

Stellar activity interferes with precise radial velocity measurements and limits our ability to detect and characterize planets, particularly Earth-like planets. We introduce \aestra (Auto-Encoding STellar Radial-velocity and Activity), a deep learning method for precise radial velocity measurements. It combines a spectrum auto-encoder, which learns to create realistic models of the star's rest-frame spectrum, and a radial-velocity estimator, which learns to identify true Doppler shifts in the presence of spurious shifts due to line-profile variations. Being self-supervised, \aestra does not need "ground truth" radial velocities for training, making it applicable to exoplanet host stars for which the truth is unknown. In tests involving 1,000 simulated spectra, \aestra can detect planetary signals as low as 0.1 m/s even in the presence of 3 m/s of activity-induced noise and 0.3 m/s of photon noise per spectrum.Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journa

iCurate: A Research Data Management System

Scientific research activities generate a large amount of data, which varies in format, volume, structure and ownership. Although there are revision control systems and databases developed for data archiving, the traditional data management methods are not suitable for High Performance Computing (HPC) systems. The files in such systems do not have semantic annotations and cannot be archived and managed for public dissemination. We have proposed and developed a Research Data Management (RDM)system, iCurate', which provides easy-to-use RDM facilities with semantic annotations. The system incorporates Metadata Retrieval, Departmental Archiving, Workflow Management System, Meta data Validation and Self Inferencing. The `i' emphasises the user-oriented design. iCurate will support researchers by annotating their data in a clearer and machine readable way from its production to publication for the future reus

Bottom-up Photonic Crystal Lasers

The directed growth of III–V nanopillars is used to demonstrate bottom-up photonic crystal lasers. Simultaneous formation of both the photonic band gap and active gain region is achieved via catalyst-free selective-area metal–organic chemical vapor deposition on masked GaAs substrates. The nanopillars implement a GaAs/InGaAs/GaAs axial double heterostructure for accurate, arbitrary placement of gain within the cavity and lateral InGaP shells to reduce surface recombination. The lasers operate single-mode at room temperature with low threshold peak power density of ~625 W/cm^2. Cavity resonance and lasing wavelength is lithographically defined by controlling pillar pitch and diameter to vary from 960 to 989 nm. We envision this bottom-up approach to pillar-based devices as a new platform for photonic systems integration

THE STELLAR OBLIQUITY, PLANET MASS, AND VERY LOW ALBEDO OF QATAR-2 FROM K2 PHOTOMETRY

The Qatar-2 transiting exoplanet system was recently observed by the {\it Kepler} telescope as part of {\it K2} Campaign 6. The photometric time series has one-minute time sampling and a precision of about 690~ppm, after filtering out artifacts and spurious trends. We identify dozens of starspot-crossing events, when the planet eclipsed a relatively dark region of the stellar photosphere. The observed patterns in the sequence of these events demonstrate that the planet always transits over the same range of stellar latitudes, and therefore that the stellar obliquity is less than about 10$^\circ$. We support this conclusion with two different modeling approaches: one based on explicit identification and timing of the events, and the other based on fitting the light curves with a spotted-star model. We are also able to refine the usual transit parameters and measure the stellar rotation period ($18.5 \pm 1.9$~days), corresponding to a 'gyrochronological' age of $1.4 \pm 0.3$ Gyr. Coherent flux variations with the same period as the transits are seen throughout the entire light curve. These variations are well modeled as the combined effects of ellipsoidal light variations ($17.4 \pm 2.8$~ppm) and Doppler boosting ($11.9 \pm 2.5$~ppm). The magnitudes of these effects are both consistent with a planetary mass of $2.6 \pm 0.5~ M_{\text{Jup}}$, which is in turn consistent with the mass determined by the Doppler technique. No occultations are detected, giving a 2$\sigma$ upper limit of $0.013$ on the planet's visual geometric albedo. The measured transit times are consistent with a constant orbital period. In particular we find no evidence for orbital decay, although we are only able to place a weak lower bound on the relevant tidal quality factor: $Q'_\star > 1.5\times 10^4$~(95\% confidence).Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, 6 tables. Accepted to A