Changes in the Cost of Medicare Prescription Drug Plans, 2007-2008

This issue brief analyzes the increase in Medicare Part D premiums over the past year and finds, on average, a 24.5 percent rise. It goes on to look at Medicare Part D statistics on a state-by-state basis to show trends that are not readily apparent based on the national data alone

Modeling Human Understanding of Complex Intentional Action with a Bayesian Nonparametric Subgoal Model

Most human behaviors consist of multiple parts, steps, or subtasks. These structures guide our action planning and execution, but when we observe others, the latent structure of their actions is typically unobservable, and must be inferred in order to learn new skills by demonstration, or to assist others in completing their tasks. For example, an assistant who has learned the subgoal structure of a colleague's task can more rapidly recognize and support their actions as they unfold. Here we model how humans infer subgoals from observations of complex action sequences using a nonparametric Bayesian model, which assumes that observed actions are generated by approximately rational planning over unknown subgoal sequences. We test this model with a behavioral experiment in which humans observed different series of goal-directed actions, and inferred both the number and composition of the subgoal sequences associated with each goal. The Bayesian model predicts human subgoal inferences with high accuracy, and significantly better than several alternative models and straightforward heuristics. Motivated by this result, we simulate how learning and inference of subgoals can improve performance in an artificial user assistance task. The Bayesian model learns the correct subgoals from fewer observations, and better assists users by more rapidly and accurately inferring the goal of their actions than alternative approaches.Comment: Accepted at AAAI 1

Protestors, Police, Presidents and Politicians, Buffalo, Brockport, Blacks and Buffalonians: Bloody Battle and Peaceful Protest Against the Vietnam War in Western New York

An honors thesis that examines the era of Vietnam War protests at two campuses, that of the College at Brockport, and the University at Buffalo

Assessing Credibility In Subjective Probability Judgment

Subjective probability judgments (SPJs) are an essential component of decision making under uncertainty. Yet, research shows that SPJs are vulnerable to a variety of errors and biases. From a practical perspective, this exposes decision makers to risk: if SPJs are (reasonably) valid, then expectations and choices will be rational; if they are not, then expectations may be erroneous and choices suboptimal. However, existing methods for evaluating SPJs depend on information that is typically not available to decision makers (e.g., ground truth; correspondence criteria). To address this issue, I develop a method for evaluating SPJs based on a construct I call credibility. At the conceptual level, credibility describes the relationship between an individual’s SPJs and the most defensible beliefs that one could hold, given all available information. Thus, coefficients describing credibility (i.e., “credibility estimates”) ought to reflect an individual’s tendencies towards error and bias in judgment. To determine whether empirical models of credibility can capture this information, this dissertation examines the reliability, validity, and utility of credibility estimates derived from a model that I call the linear credibility framework. In Chapter 1, I introduce the linear credibility framework and demonstrate its potential for validity and utility in a proof-of-concept simulation. In Chapter 2, I apply the linear credibility framework to SPJs from three empirical sources and examine the reliability and validity of credibility estimates as predictors of judgmental accuracy (among other measures of “good” judgment). In Chapter 3, I use credibility estimates from the same three sources to recalibrate and improve SPJs (i.e., increase accuracy) out-of-sample. In Chapter 4, I discuss the robustness of empirical models of credibility and present two studies in which I use exploratory research methods to (a) tailor the linear credibility framework to the data at hand; and (b) boost performance. Across nine studies, I conclude that the linear credibility framework is a robust (albeit imperfect) model of credibility that can provide reliable, valid, and useful estimates of credibility. Because the linear credibility framework is an intentionally weak model, I argue that these results represent a lower-bound for the performance of empirical models of credibility, more generally

Contaminants of Emerging Concern Behavior within Water Renewal Facilities

Emerging constituents (ECs), also called contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) are defined by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA) as: “…pharmaceuticals and personal care products.” This also includes per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), which are used in waterproofing and non-stick cooking products. It is highly likely that regulatory limits will be placed on many ECs because they tend to accumulate in the environment and biological tissues with little to no transformation. ECs pose a threat to the ecological systems of our nation and the fundamental need for clean water by all life on earth. Clean water is essential for food production, whether directly, through activities such as fishing, or secondarily, through irrigation for crop production. Research shows that ECs have affected the endocrine systems of certain fish species throughout the United States. Some studies indicate that upward of 85% of male fish sampled had eggs growing within their reproductive organs. ECs in the United States primarily enter water bodies through water renewal facilities, whether on-site (e.g. septic systems) or centralized municipal utilities (e.g. City of Boise’s water renewal system). Research shows various psychotropic drugs, prescribed and illicit, are present in both receiving and discharge streams of many North American water renewal facilities. It is unclear the extent to which ECs are removed or accumulate through wastewater treatment processes. This is further exacerbated by the abundant release of ECs into collection systems across our nation, and the rate at which new ECs are being generated for personal care and medical uses. This research examined a targeted set of ECs within the Lander Street Water Renewal Facility (LSWRF), the older of the City of Boise’s two water renewal facilities. The research detected and mapped certain ECs as they processed through the LSWRF. Their paths through the facility, behavioral tendencies, and variations in concentration are presented here. While the concentrations detected are low in comparison to medical dosing concentrations, the accumulation potential of these substances in the natural receiving systems remains unknown. Water and soil must be clean for life to thrive. We have been given the responsibility by our creator to be good stewards of the earth and its resources. ECs pose a threat to life. We must continue conducting research to find a way to prevent ECs from causing harm to our natural systems. Research like this is the beginning of good stewardship