The relative contribution of climate variability and vector control coverage to changes in malaria parasite prevalence in Zambia 2006-2012

BACKGROUND: Four malaria indicator surveys (MIS) were conducted in Zambia between 2006 and 2012 to evaluate malaria control scale-up. Nationally, coverage of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) increased over this period, while parasite prevalence in children 1-59 months decreased dramatically between 2006 and 2008, but then increased from 2008 to 2010. We assessed the relative effects of vector control coverage and climate variability on malaria parasite prevalence over this period. METHODS: Nationally-representative MISs were conducted in April-June of 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012 to collect household-level information on malaria control interventions such as IRS, ITN ownership and use, and child parasite prevalence by microscopic examination of blood smears. We fitted Bayesian geostatistical models to assess the association between IRS and ITN coverage and climate variability and malaria parasite prevalence. We created predictions of the spatial distribution of malaria prevalence at each time point and compared results of varying IRS, ITN, and climate inputs to assess their relative contributions to changes in prevalence. RESULTS: Nationally, the proportion of households owning an ITN increased from 37.8 % in 2006 to 64.3 % in 2010 and 68.1 % in 2012, with substantial heterogeneity sub-nationally. The population-adjusted predicted child malaria parasite prevalence decreased from 19.6 % in 2006 to 10.4 % in 2008, but rose to 15.3 % in 2010 and 13.5 % in 2012. We estimated that the majority of this prevalence increase at the national level between 2008 and 2010 was due to climate effects on transmission, although there was substantial heterogeneity at the provincial level in the relative contribution of changing climate and ITN availability. We predict that if climate factors preceding the 2010 survey were the same as in 2008, the population-adjusted prevalence would have fallen to 9.9 % nationally. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that a combination of climate factors and reduced intervention coverage in parts of the country contributed to both the reduction and rebound in malaria parasite prevalence. Unusual rainfall patterns, perhaps related to moderate El Niño conditions, may have contributed to this variation. Zambia has demonstrated considerable success in scaling up vector control. This analysis highlights the importance of accounting for climate variability when using cross-sectional data for evaluation of malaria control efforts

Theory of reactive interventions in the elimination and control of malaria

Reactive case detection (RCD) is an integral part of many malaria control and elimination programmes and can be conceived of as a way of gradually decreasing transmission. However, it is unclear under what circumstances RCD may have a substantial impact on prevalence, how likely it is to lead to local elimination, or how effective it needs to be to prevent reintroduction after transmission has been interrupted.; Analyses and simulations of a discrete time compartmental susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model were used to understand the mechanisms of how RCD changes transmission dynamics and estimate the impact of RCD programmes in a range of settings with varying patterns of transmission potential and programme characteristics. Prevalence survey data from recent studies in Zambia were used to capture the effects of spatial clustering of patent infections.; RCD proved most effective at low prevalence. Increasing the number of index cases followed was more important than increasing the number of neighbours tested per index case. Elimination was achieved only in simulations of situations with very low transmission intensity and following many index cases. However, RCD appears to be helpful in maintaining the disease-free state after achieving malaria elimination (through other interventions).; RCD alone can eliminate malaria in only a very limited range of settings, where transmission potential is very low, and improving the coverage of RCD has little effect on this range. In other settings, it is likely to reduce disease burden. RCD may also help maintain the disease-free state in the face of imported infections. Prevalence survey data can be used to estimate a targeting ratio (the ratio of prevalence found through RCD to that in the general population) which is an important determinant of the effect of RCD

Interpreting household survey data intended to measure insecticide-treated bednet coverage: results from two surveys in Eritrea

BACKGROUND: As efforts are currently underway to roll-out insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) to populations within malarious areas in Africa, there is an unprecedented need for data to measure the effectiveness of such programmes in terms of population coverage. This paper examines methodological issues to using household surveys to measure core Roll Back Malaria coverage indicators of ITN possession and use. METHODS: ITN coverage estimates within Anseba and Gash Barka Provinces from the 2002 Eritrean Demographic and Health Survey, implemented just prior to a large-scale ITN distribution programme, are compared to estimates from the same area from a sub-national Bednet Survey implemented 18 months later in 2003 after the roll-out of the ITN programme. RESULTS: Measures of bednet possession were dramatically higher in 2003 compared to 2002. In 2003, 82.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) 77.4–87.0) of households in Anseba and Gash Barka possessed at least one ITN. RBM coverage indicators for ITN use were also dramatically higher in 2003 as compared to 2002, with 76.1% (95% CI 69.9–82.2) of children under five years old and 52.4% (95% CI 38.2–66.6) of pregnant women sleeping under ITNs. The ITN distribution programme resulted in a gross increase in ITN use among children and pregnant women of 68.3% and 48% respectively. CONCLUSION: Eritrea has exceeded the Abuja targets of 60% coverage for ITN household possession and use among children under five years old within two malarious provinces. Results point to several important potential sources of bias that must be considered when interpreting data for ITN coverage over time, including: disparate survey universes and target populations that may include non-malarious areas; poor date recall of bednet procurement and treatment; and differences in timing of surveys with respect to malaria season

MOESM1 of Social inequalities in malaria knowledge, prevention and prevalence among children under 5 years old and women aged 15–49 in Madagascar

Additional file 1. Odds ratios linking malarial knowledge and use of preventive medicine derived from logistic regression, Malaria Indicator Survey 2011–2013

Interpersonal communication, cultural norms, and community perceptions associated with care-seeking for fever among children under age five in Magoé district, Mozambique

Abstract Background Malaria is endemic throughout Mozambique, contributing significantly to the country’s burden of disease. Prompt and effective treatment for fevers in children can limit the mortality and morbidity impacts of the disease but many children in the country are not taken for formal care when ill. Using an ideational model of behaviour, this study assesses the magnitude of the relationships for potential drivers of care-seeking, including interpersonal communication, malaria messaging, and knowledge and attitudes about malaria, with actual care-seeking behaviours for under-five children with fever in Magoé district, Mozambique. Methods Data on the care-seeking behaviours for fever come from a 2019 household malaria survey in Magoé district. Households were randomly selected for interview from among those with at least one child under age five and one net for every two household members. From 1621 mother-child dyads, the analytical sample consists of 300 children under age five with a fever in the 2 weeks prior to the survey. Multilevel random effects logistic regression models are estimated to test for associations between care-seeking behaviours and hypothesized behavioural determinants, including interpersonal communication (IPC), malaria messaging, ideational factors (e.g., norms, attitudes, beliefs, risk perceptions), and community characteristics. Results Overall, 18.5% of children under age five (N = 300) were reported to have fever in the previous 2 weeks and, of these, 68.5% were taken to a formal sector health care provider. Multivariate models highlight significant roles for interpersonal communication; care-seeking was highest among mothers who spoke only with friends/community members about malaria (94.0%, p < 0.001), followed by those who spoke only with their husband (78.6%, p = 0.015), relative to 63.3% who spoke with no one. Care-seeking decisions made by a child’s grandmother were associated with a 25.0% point (p = 0.001) greater likelihood of seeking care relative to decisions made by the mother alone. Exposure to any malaria messaging was also positively associated with care-seeking (90.5% versus 62.7%, p < 0.001). In contrast, among all individual- and community-level ideational factors, only perceptions of self-efficacy to seek care were related to care-seeking behaviours. Conclusions These results suggest that social and behaviour change interventions that focus on encouraging families and community members to talk about malaria and the need to promptly seek treatment for fevers in children may be particularly effective at increasing this behaviour in this and similar settings. Such messaging and IPC should consider grandmothers as a target audience, as they appear to be perceived as highly influential in care-seeking decision-making in this community

Additional file 1 of Interpersonal communication, cultural norms, and community perceptions associated with care-seeking for fever among children under age five in Magoé district, Mozambique

Additional file 1 : Table S1. Characteristics of households and household respondents from the 2019 baseline survey, Magoé district, Mozambique (N = 299)

Modeled diagnosis and treatment coverage based on sensitivity and specificity of caregiver recall across actual intervention coverages in a given community.

<p>Proportions of patients actually experiencing each event at the study clinics are illustrated with red arrows. The solid black line at a 45° angle represents 100% sensitivity and specificity. Estimates for the coverage of these interventions expected from a household survey from caregiver recall with the sensitivity and specificity observed in this study (blue line) were modeled for true intervention coverages (observed at clinic) ranging from 0% to 100% as follows: estimated coverage from caregiver recall = (true coverage at clinic<i>×</i>sensitivity)+[(1−true coverage at clinic)<i>×</i>[1−specificity)].</p