4,007 research outputs found

    A General Approach for Predicting the Behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States

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    Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.Comment: version 2.02; 18 pages, 5 figures. This paper is related to but distinct from arXiv:1407.6333, and the results herein supersede arXiv:1407.6333. Source code available at https://github.com/mjbommar/scotus-predict-v

    The Failure of Correlation to Describe Out-of-Plane Carbon=Carbon Bending

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    Carbon-carbon multiply bonded systems are improperly described with standard correlation methods and basis sets. For computations of vibrational modes, the out-of- plane bends can be reported as imaginary at worst or simply too low at best. Utilizing the simplest of aromatic structures (cyclopropenylidene) and various levels of theory, this work diagnoses this known behavior for the first time. A combined 1-particle and n-particle basis set effect conspire to produce these non-physical results. When moving from sp2 to sp3 hybridization in the carbon atoms, the larger number of basis functions overcorrects the energy. This is exacerbated by correlation methods. These allow for occupation of the and orbitals in the expanded wave function that combine with the hydrogen s orbitals. As a result, the improperly described space can be further and non-physically stabilized by post-Hartree-Fock correlation. This represents a fundamental problem with at least Hartree-Fock based methods of all flavors in describing carbon. Beyond being a flaw in quantum chemical theory, other repercussions will be present in computations regarding spectroscopy as well as energy and environmental studies where highly-accurate hydrocabon vibrational transitions or thermochemical data are needed

    Substrate-specific clades of active marine methylotrophs associated with a phytoplankton bloom in a temperate coastal environment

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    Marine microorganisms that consume one-carbon (C1) compounds are poorly described, despite their impact on global climate via an influence on aquatic and atmospheric chemistry. This study investigated marine bacterial communities involved in the metabolism of C1 compounds. These communities were of relevance to surface seawater and atmospheric chemistry in the context of a bloom that was dominated by phytoplankton known to produce dimethylsulfoniopropionate. In addition to using 16S rRNA gene fingerprinting and clone libraries to characterize samples taken from a bloom transect in July 2006, seawater samples from the phytoplankton bloom were incubated with 13C-labeled methanol, monomethylamine, dimethylamine, methyl bromide, and dimethyl sulfide to identify microbial populations involved in the turnover of C1 compounds, using DNA stable isotope probing. The [13C]DNA samples from a single time point were characterized and compared using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE), fingerprint cluster analysis, and 16S rRNA gene clone library analysis. Bacterial community DGGE fingerprints from 13C-labeled DNA were distinct from those obtained with the DNA of the nonlabeled community DNA and suggested some overlap in substrate utilization between active methylotroph populations growing on different C1 substrates. Active methylotrophs were affiliated with Methylophaga spp. and several clades of undescribed Gammaproteobacteria that utilized methanol, methylamines (both monomethylamine and dimethylamine), and dimethyl sulfide. rRNA gene sequences corresponding to populations assimilating 13C-labeled methyl bromide and other substrates were associated with members of the Alphaproteobacteria (e.g., the family Rhodobacteraceae), the Cytophaga-Flexibacter-Bacteroides group, and unknown taxa. This study expands the known diversity of marine methylotrophs in surface seawater and provides a comprehensive data set for focused cultivation and metagenomic analyses in the future

    A sufficient condition for the existence of an anti-directed 2-factor in a directed graph

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    Let D be a directed graph with vertex set V and order n. An anti-directed hamiltonian cycle H in D is a hamiltonian cycle in the graph underlying D such that no pair of consecutive arcs in H form a directed path in D. An anti-directed 2-factor in D is a vertex-disjoint collection of anti-directed cycles in D that span V. It was proved in [3] that if the indegree and the outdegree of each vertex of D is greater than (9/16)n then D contains an anti-directed hamilton cycle. In this paper we prove that given a directed graph D, the problem of determining whether D has an anti-directed 2-factor is NP-complete, and we use a proof technique similar to the one used in [3] to prove that if the indegree and the outdegree of each vertex of D is greater than (24/46)n then D contains an anti-directed 2-factor

    How to Collect your Water Sample and Interpret the Results for the Poultry Analytical Package

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    Rapidly growing birds may consume up to twice as much water as feed (Scantling and Watkins 2013), which means a plentiful supply of clean water is crucial for poultry health and productivity. To determine the quality of your poultry’s water resources, periodic sampling and analysis is needed. Analyzing water supplies can also be a crucial tool in identifying existing or potential challenges. The Arkansas Water Resources Center (AWRC) in cooperation with the UA Cooperative Extension Service offers several analytical packages to assess the quality of your water resources. This document is intended to provide guidance to poultry producers on collecting water samples for analysis and understanding the “Poultry Water Report Form” provided by the AWRC’s Water Quality Laboratory (Lab). The information contained within this fact sheet should be used as general guidance, and the reader is encouraged to seek advice from Extension specialists regarding the interpretation of individual reports and water testing results that may be of concern

    Edinger-Westphal Nucleus

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    This report contains a summary of expression patterns for genes that are enriched in the Edinger-Westphal nucleus (EW) of the midbrain. All data are derived from the Allen Brain Atlas (ABA) in situ hybridization mouse project. The structure's location and morphological characteristics in the mouse brain are described using the Nissl data found in the Allen Reference Atlas. Using an established algorithm, the expression values of the Edinger-Westphal nucleus were compared to the values of its larger parent structure, in this case the midbrain, for the purpose of extracting regionally selective gene expression data. The highest ranking genes were manually curated and verified. 50 genes were then selected and compiled for expression analysis. The experimental data for each gene may be accessed via the links provided; additional data in the sagittal plane may also be accessed using the ABA. Correlations between gene expression in the Edinger-Westphal nucleus and the rest of the brain, across all genes in the coronal dataset (~4300 genes), were derived computationally. A gene ontology table (derived from DAVID Bioinformatics Resources 2007) is also included, highlighting possible functions of the 50 genes selected for this report. 
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