Variations in Tropical Cyclone Genesis Factors in Simulations of the Holocene Epoch

The thermodynamic factors related to tropical cyclone genesis are examined in several simulations of the middle part of the Holocene epoch when the precession of Earth’s orbit altered the seasonal distribution of solar radiation and in one transient simulation of the millennium preceding the industrial era. The thermodynamic properties most crucial for genesis display a broad stability across both periods, although both orbital variations during the mid-Holocene (MH) 6000 years ago (6ka) and volcanic eruptions in the transient simulation have detectable effects. It is shown that the distribution of top-of-the-atmosphere radiation 6ka altered the Northern Hemisphere seasonal cycle of the potential intensity of tropical cyclones in addition to slightly increasing the difference between middle tropospheric and boundary layer entropy, a parameter that has been related to the incubation period required for genesis. The Southern Hemisphere, which receives more solar radiation during its storm season today than it did 6ka, displays slightly more favorable thermodynamic properties during the MH than in the preindustrial era control. Surface temperatures over the ocean in both hemispheres respond to radiation anomalies more slowly than those in upper levels, altering the thermal stability. Volcanism produces a sharp but transient temperature response in the last-millennium simulation that strongly reduces potential intensity during the seasons immediately following a major eruption. Here, too, the differential vertical temperature response is key: temperatures in the lower and middle troposphere cool, while those near the tropopause rise. Aside from these deviations, there is no substantial variation in thermodynamic properties over the 1000-yr simulation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis Factors in Simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum

Large-scale environmental factors that favor tropical cyclogenesis are calculated and examined in simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PMIP2). Despite universally colder conditions at the LGM, values of tropical cyclone potential intensity, which both serves as an upper bound on thermodynamically achievable intensity and indicates regions supportive of the deep convection required, are broadly similar in magnitude to those in preindustrial era control simulation. Some regions, including large areas of the central and western North Pacific, feature higher potential intensities at the LGM than they do in the control runs, while other regions including much of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans are lower. Changes in potential intensity are strongly correlated with the degree of surface cooling during the LGM. Additionally, two thermodynamic parameters—one that measures midtropospheric entropy deficits relevant for tropical cyclogenesis and another related to the time required for genesis—are broadly more favorable in the LGM simulation than in the preindustrial era control. A genesis potential index yields higher values for the LGM in much of the western Pacific, a feature common to nearly all of the individual models examined

The Influence of Convective Aggregation on the Stable Isotopic Composition of Water Vapor

Remote sensing datasets of water vapor isotopic composition are used along with objective measures of convective aggregation to better understand the impact of convective aggregation on the atmospheric hydrologic cycle in the global tropics (30°N to 30°S) for the period 2015–2020. When convection is unaggregated, vertical velocity profiles are top-heavy, mixing ratios increase and water vapor δD decreases as the mean precipitation rate increases, consistent with partial hydrometeor evaporation below anvils into a relatively humid atmospheric column. Aggregated convection is associated with bottom-heavy vertical velocity profiles and a positive correlation between mixing ratio and δD, a result that is consistent with isotopic enrichment from detrainment of shallow convection near the observation level. Intermediate degrees of aggregation do not display significant variation in δD with mixing ratio or precipitation rate. Convective aggregation provides a useful paradigm for understanding the relationships between mixing ratio and isotopic composition across a range of convective settings. The results presented here may have utility for a variety of applications including the interpretation of paleoclimate archives and the evaluation of numerical simulations of convection

Dynamical downscaling of tropical cyclones from CCSM4 simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum

Dynamical downscaling of simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and late twentieth century (20C) were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the aim of (1) understanding how the downscaled kinematic and thermodynamic variables influence simulated tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific during the LGM and the 20C periods and (2) to test the relevance of TC genesis factors for the colder LGM climate. The results show that, despite the lower temperatures during the LGM, the downscaled TC climatology over the western North Pacific in the LGM simulation does not differ significantly from that in the 20C simulation. Among the TC environmental factors, the TC potential intensity, mid‐tropospheric entropy deficit, and vertical wind shear during the LGM were consistent with previous analyses of TC genesis factors in LGM global climate model simulations. Changes in TC genesis density between the LGM and the 20C simulations seem to be well represented by the ventilation index, a nondimensional measure of the combined effects of vertical wind shear, and thermodynamic properties, suggesting the potential applicability of those factors for TC activity evaluation during the LGM and possibly other climates

Isotopic measurements in water vapor, precipitation, and seawater during EUREC4^4A

n early 2020, an international team set out to investigate trade-wind cumulus clouds and their coupling to the large-scale circulation through the field campaign EUREC$^4$A: ElUcidating the RolE of Clouds-Circulation Coupling in ClimAte. Focused on the western tropical Atlantic near Barbados, EUREC$^4$A deployed a number of innovative observational strategies, including a large network of water isotopic measurements collectively known as EUREC$^4$A-iso, to study the tropical shallow convective environment. The goal of the isotopic measurements was to elucidate processes that regulate the hydroclimate state – for example, by identifying moisture sources, quantifying mixing between atmospheric layers, characterizing the microphysics that influence the formation and persistence of clouds and precipitation, and providing an extra constraint in the evaluation of numerical simulations. During the field experiment, researchers deployed seven water vapor isotopic analyzers on two aircraft, on three ships, and at the Barbados Cloud Observatory (BCO). Precipitation was collected for isotopic analysis at the BCO and from aboard four ships. In addition, three ships collected seawater for isotopic analysis. All told, the in situ data span the period 5 January–22 February 2020 and cover the approximate area 6 to 16° N and 50 to 60° W, with water vapor isotope ratios measured from a few meters above sea level to the mid-free troposphere and seawater samples spanning the ocean surface to several kilometers depth. This paper describes the full EUREC$^4$A isotopic in situ data collection – providing extensive information about sampling strategies and data uncertainties – and also guides readers to complementary remotely sensed water vapor isotope ratios. All field data have been made publicly available even if they are affected by known biases, as is the case for high-altitude aircraft measurements, one of the two BCO ground-based water vapor time series, and select rain and seawater samples from the ships. Publication of these data reflects a desire to promote dialogue around improving water isotope measurement strategies for the future. The remaining, high-quality data create unprecedented opportunities to close water isotopic budgets and evaluate water fluxes and their influence on cloudiness in the trade-wind environment. The full list of dataset DOIs and notes on data quality flags are provided in Table 3 of Sect. 5 (“Data availability”)

Stable isotopes in atmospheric water vapour from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, 2016-2017

The isotopic composition of atmospheric water vapor (1H216O, H218O, and 1H2H16O) was continuously measured at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) from April 8, 2016 through March 13, 2017 using Off-Axis Integrated Cavity Output Spectroscopy (OA-ICOS). The dataset has been carefully corrected for humidity-dependent biases and calibrated against the international VSMOW-SLAP scale to provide a precise, continuous, nearly yearlong dataset from a dynamic subtropical setting. The measurements are provided with 15-minute and 6-hourly resolution

The dynamics of foreland basin carbonate platforms: tectonic and eustatic controls

ABSTRACT A numerical model linking a coral growth algorithm and an algorithm for flexural subsidence reproduces many of the characteristics of drowned foreland basin carbonate platforms. This model successfully matches the observed distribution and drowning age of drowned carbonate platforms in the Huon Gulf, Papua New Guinea, a modern submarine foreland basin. Analysis of equations describing flexural subsidence and eustatic sea-level variations suggest that there are minimum convergence rates and periodicities of sea-level variation required to drown foreland basin carbonate platforms. For convergence rates on the order of a few millimetres per year, sea-level must vary on time-scales of about 10 5 years in order to induce a rate of relative sea-level rise great enough to drown an otherwise healthy foreland basin carbonate platform. shallow, distal part of the basin may remain in clea

Water vapor isotopic composition of a stratospheric air intrusion: Measurements from the Chajnantor Plateau, Chile

This dataset contains ozone and water vapor isotopic measurements for August, 2012, from the Chajnantor Plateau