Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: The Private Uses of Public Interests: Incentives and Institutions

As a long-time student of the public sector, I welcomed the opportunity to come to Washington as a member of the Council of Economic Advisers and later to become the Chairman of the Council, partly because it gave me an opportunity to study at first hand this immensely important part of our economy and society and to test my ideas against the reality of government in action

Macroeconomic Fluctuations, Inequality, and Human Development

This paper examines the two-way relationship between inequality and economic fluctuations, and the implications for human development. For years, the dominant paradigm in macroeconomics, which assumed that income distribution did not matter, at least for macroeconomic behavior, ignored inequality--both its role in causing crises and the effect of fluctuations in general, and crises in particular, on inequality. But the most recent financial crisis has shown the errors in this thinking, and these views are finally beginning to be questioned. Economists who had looked at the average equity of a homeowner--ignoring the distribution--felt comfortable that the economy could easily withstand a large fall in housing prices. When such a fall occurred, however, it had disastrous effects, because a large fraction of homeowners owed more on their homes than the value of the home, leading to waves of foreclosure and economic stress. Policy-makers and economists alike have begun to take note: inequality can contribute to volatility and the creation of crises, and volatility can contribute to inequality. Here, we explore the variety of channels through which inequality affects fluctuations and fluctuations affect inequality, and explore how some of the changes in our economy may have contributed to increased inequality and volatility both directly and indirectly. After describing the two-way relationship, the paper discusses hysteresis--the fact that the consequences of an economic downturn can be long-lived. Then, it examines how policy can either mitigate or exacerbate the inequality consequences of economic downturns, and shows how well-intentioned policies can sometimes be counterproductive. Finally, it links these issues to human development, especially in developing countries

New firm survival in developing countries: evidence from Kosovo

This paper examines both newborn firm survival and firm turnover in Kosovo using the population of new firms and registry information on active firms from 2008 to 2012. Survival analysis is employed to analyze the impact of firm- and industry-level characteristics on survival. We find that the hazard rate has an inverted U-shape relationship with both firm age and firm size. The risk of failure increases over the first two years and later decreases. In addition, firms with one employee and more than 10 employees enjoy better survival prospects than medium-sized companies. Interestingly, very large firms do not face fewer risks than very small companies. When compared to other developing countries, entry rates are lower but survival rates are higher. These features seem to be a distinctive characteristic of Kosovo

Agenda for Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Closed Meeting on Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Attached is the action items list for this meeting, and agenda item 8

Re-conceptualising Territorial Cohesion Through the Prism of Spatial Justice : Critical Perspectives on Academic and Policy Discourses

Peer reviewe

Government Assistance and Total Factor Productivity: Firm-level Evidence from China

Industrial policy, particularly through the provision of large-scale assistance to industry in the form of ‘tax holidays’ and subsidies to firms, is very important in China. A major contribution of this paper is to introduce firm-level measures of assistance directly into industry-level production functions determining firm output using Chinese firm-level panel data for 1998-2007 and analysing the impact of government assistance on TFP at the firm-level. Our results indicate inverted U-shaped gains from assistance: across the 26 industries considered, firms receiving assistance rates of 1-10%, 10-19%, 20-49% and 50+% experienced on average 4.5%, 9.4%, 9.2% and -3% gains in TFP level, respectively. We then decompose the growth of TFP and relate it to assistance and formal political connections between firms and the government. We find in general firms receiving assistance contributed relatively more to TFP growth than non-assisted firms. However, this was largely through new firms being ‘encouraged’ to start-up rather than through firms open throughout 1998 to 2007 improving. There is also evidence that closure rates were truncated as a result of assistance. Moreover, the better results for assisted firms was very much ‘driven’ by a sub-group that received assistance but had no formal political connections and were not State-owned

The Future of Agent-Based Modeling

In this paper, I elaborate on the role of agent-based (AB) modeling for macroeconomic research. My main tenet is that the full potential of the AB approach has not been realized yet. This potential lies in the modular nature of the models, which is bought by abandoning the straitjacket of rational expectations and embracing an evolutionary perspective. I envisage the foundation of a Modular Macroeconomic Science, where new models with heterogeneous interacting agents, endowed with partial information and limited computational ability, can be created by recombining and extending existing models in a unified computational framework