Early prediction of clinical response to checkpoint inhibitor therapy in human solid tumors through mathematical modeling

Background:: Checkpoint inhibitor therapy of cancer has led to markedly improved survival of a subset of patients in multiple solid malignant tumor types, yet the factors driving these clinical responses or lack thereof are not known. We have developed a mechanistic mathematical model for better understanding these factors and their relations in order to predict treatment outcome and optimize personal treatment strategies. Methods:: Here, we present a translational mathematical model dependent on three key parameters for describing efficacy of checkpoint inhibitors in human cancer: tumor growth rate (α), tumor-immune infiltration (Λ), and immunotherapy-mediated amplification of anti-tumor response (µ). The model was calibrated by fitting it to a compiled clinical tumor response dataset (n = 189 patients) obtained from published anti-PD-1 and anti-PD-L1 clinical trials, and then validated on an additional validation cohort (n = 64 patients) obtained from our in-house clinical trials. Results:: The derived parameters Λ and µ were both significantly different between responding versus nonresponding patients. Of note, our model appropriately classified response in 81.4% of patients by using only tumor volume measurements and within 2 months of treatment initiation in a retrospective analysis. The model reliably predicted clinical response to the PD-1/PD-L1 class of checkpoint inhibitors across multiple solid malignant tumor types. Comparison of model parameters to immunohistochemical measurement of PD-L1 and CD8+ T cells confirmed robust relationships between model parameters and their underlying biology. Conclusions:: These results have demonstrated reliable methods to inform model parameters directly from biopsy samples, which are conveniently obtainable as early as the start of treatment. Together, these suggest that the model parameters may serve as early and robust biomarkers of the efficacy of checkpoint inhibitor therapy on an individualized per-patient basis. Funding:: We gratefully acknowledge support from the Andrew Sabin Family Fellowship, Center for Radiation Oncology Research, Sheikh Ahmed Center for Pancreatic Cancer Research, GE Healthcare, Philips Healthcare, and institutional funds from the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center. We have also received Cancer Center Support Grants from the National Cancer Institute (P30CA016672 to the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center and P30CA072720 the Rutgers Cancer Institute of New Jersey). This research has also been supported in part by grants from the National Science Foundation Grant DMS-1930583 (ZW, VC), the National Institutes of Health (NIH) 1R01CA253865 (ZW, VC), 1U01CA196403 (ZW, VC), 1U01CA213759 (ZW, VC), 1R01CA226537 (ZW, RP, WA, VC), 1R01CA222007 (ZW, VC), U54CA210181 (ZW, VC), and the University of Texas System STARS Award (VC). BC acknowledges support through the SER Cymru II Programme, funded by the European Commission through the Horizon 2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) COFUND scheme and the Welsh European Funding Office (WEFO) under the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). EK has also received support from the Project Purple, NIH (U54CA210181, U01CA200468, and U01CA196403), and the Pancreatic Cancer Action Network (16-65-SING). MF was supported through NIH/NCI center grant U54CA210181, R01CA222959, DoD Breast Cancer Research Breakthrough Level IV Award W81XWH-17-1-0389, and the Ernest Cockrell Jr. Presidential Distinguished Chair at Houston Methodist Research Institute. RP and WA received serial research awards from AngelWorks, the Gillson-Longenbaugh Foundation, and the Marcus Foundation. This work was also supported in part by grants from the National Cancer Institute to SHC (R01CA109322, R01CA127483, R01CA208703, and U54CA210181 CITO pilot grant) and to PYP (R01CA140243, R01CA188610, and U54CA210181 CITO pilot grant). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

World Addiction Medicine Reports : formation of the International Society of Addiction Medicine (ISAM) Global Expert Network (ISAM-GEN) and Its global surveys

Funding: All the infrastructure funding of this initiative is supported by the International Society of Addiction Medicine (ISAM). We will be open to fundraising for specific projects within the platform and future collaboration with external partners.Addiction medicine is a dynamic field that encompasses clinical practice and research in the context of societal, economic, and cultural factors at the local, national, regional, and global levels. This field has evolved profoundly during the past decades in terms of scopes and activities with the contribution of addiction medicine scientists and professionals globally. The dynamic nature of drug addiction at the global level has resulted in a crucial need for developing an international collaborative network of addiction societies, treatment programs and experts to monitor emerging national, regional, and global concerns. This protocol paper presents methodological details of running longitudinal surveys at national, regional, and global levels through the Global Expert Network of the International Society of Addiction Medicine (ISAM-GEN). The initial formation of the network with a recruitment phase and a round of snowball sampling provided 354 experts from 78 countries across the globe. In addition, 43 national/regional addiction societies/associations are also included in the database. The surveys will be developed by global experts in addiction medicine on treatment services, service coverage, co-occurring disorders, treatment standards and barriers, emerging addictions and/or dynamic changes in treatment needs worldwide. Survey participants in categories of (1) addiction societies/associations, (2) addiction treatment programs, (3) addiction experts/clinicians and (4) related stakeholders will respond to these global longitudinal surveys. The results will be analyzed and cross-examined with available data and peer-reviewed for publication.Peer reviewe

A MULTISCALE MODELING STUDY OF THE MAMMARY GLAND

Multiscale, hybrid computer modeling has emerged as a valuable tool in the fields of computational systems biology and mathematical oncology. In this work, we present an overview of the motivations for, and development and implementation of, three hybrid multiscale models of the mammary gland system and early stage ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in the gland. Pubertal mammary gland development was described first using a two-dimensional, lattice-based hybrid agent-based model description of the mammary terminal end bud (TEB), and then with a three-dimensional lattice-free TEB model. Both models implement a discrete, agent-based description of the cell scale, and a continuum, finite element method description of tissue scale spatiotemporal molecular profiles, which are explicitly linked into a hybrid model. This lattice-free pubertal development TEB model was then transitioned into a post-menopausal early stage DCIS model, used for study of the phenotypic dynamics and molecular signaling disruptions involved in development of the DCIS tumor mass. Both TEB and DCIS models implemented simplified, literature-based cellular phenotypic developmental hierarchies and endocrine and paracrine signaling pathways. All models provided valuable insights into the effects of these aspects on the development of both the healthy gland and the pre-invasive DCIS cancer state, and results from model outputs were found to be within literature supported ranges. Cells of both healthy and cancerous phenotypes were found to be sensitive to changes in molecular signaling intensities and phenotypic hierarchies, which played an important part in overall development in both cases, with all cases demonstrating a greater effect of upstream estrogen paracrine signaling relative to the downstream AREG-FGF epithelial to stromal pathway also tested. Here, we provide detailed descriptions of these studies and results, as well as other useful discoveries, and also an overview of the modeling approaches, techniques, and rationale for their specific designs and implementations

Mechanistic Modeling Identifies Drug-Uptake History as Predictor of Tumor Drug Resistance and Nano-Carrier-Mediated Response

A quantitative understanding of the advantages of nanoparticle-based drug delivery <i>vis-à-vis</i> conventional free drug chemotherapy has yet to be established for cancer or other diseases despite numerous investigations. Here, we employ first-principles cell biophysics, drug pharmaco-kinetics, and drug pharmaco-dynamics to model the delivery of doxorubicin (DOX) to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) tumor cells and predict the resultant experimental cytotoxicity data. The fundamental, mechanistic hypothesis of our mathematical model is that the integrated history of drug uptake by the cells over time of exposure, which sets the cell death rate parameter, and the uptake rate are the sole determinants of the dose response relationship. A universal solution of the model equations is capable of predicting the entire, nonlinear dose response of the cells to any drug concentration based on just two separate measurements of these cellular parameters. This analysis reveals that nanocarrier-mediated delivery overcomes resistance to the free drug because of improved cellular uptake rates, and that dose response curves to nanocarrier mediated drug delivery are equivalent to those for free-drug, but “shifted to the left;” that is, lower amounts of drug achieve the same cell kill. We then demonstrate the model’s general applicability to different tumor and drug types, and cell-exposure time courses by investigating HCC cells exposed to cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil, breast cancer MCF-7 cells exposed to DOX, and pancreatic adenocarcinoma PANC-1 cells exposed to gemcitabine. The model will help in the optimal design of nanocarriers for clinical applications and improve the current, largely empirical understanding of <i>in vivo</i> drug transport and tumor response

A Mathematical Model to Estimate Chemotherapy Concentration at the Tumor-Site and Predict Therapy Response in Colorectal Cancer Patients with Liver Metastases

Chemotherapy remains a primary treatment for metastatic cancer, with tumor response being the benchmark outcome marker. However, therapeutic response in cancer is unpredictable due to heterogeneity in drug delivery from systemic circulation to solid tumors. In this proof-of-concept study, we evaluated chemotherapy concentration at the tumor-site and its association with therapy response by applying a mathematical model. By using pre-treatment imaging, clinical and biologic variables, and chemotherapy regimen to inform the model, we estimated tumor-site chemotherapy concentration in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases, who received treatment prior to surgical hepatic resection with curative-intent. The differential response to therapy in resected specimens, measured with the gold-standard Tumor Regression Grade (TRG; from 1, complete response to 5, no response) was examined, relative to the model predicted systemic and tumor-site chemotherapy concentrations. We found that the average calculated plasma concentration of the cytotoxic drug was essentially equivalent across patients exhibiting different TRGs, while the estimated tumor-site chemotherapeutic concentration (eTSCC) showed a quadratic decline from TRG = 1 to TRG = 5 (p &lt; 0.001). The eTSCC was significantly lower than the observed plasma concentration and dropped by a factor of ~5 between patients with complete response (TRG = 1) and those with no response (TRG = 5), while the plasma concentration remained stable across TRG groups. TRG variations were driven and predicted by differences in tumor perfusion and eTSCC. If confirmed in carefully planned prospective studies, these findings will form the basis of a paradigm shift in the care of patients with potentially curable colorectal cancer and liver metastases

A Mathematical Model to Estimate Chemotherapy Concentration at the Tumor-Site and Predict Therapy Response in Colorectal Cancer Patients with Liver Metastases

Chemotherapy remains a primary treatment for metastatic cancer, with tumor response being the benchmark outcome marker. However, therapeutic response in cancer is unpredictable due to heterogeneity in drug delivery from systemic circulation to solid tumors. In this proof-of-concept study, we evaluated chemotherapy concentration at the tumor-site and its association with therapy response by applying a mathematical model. By using pre-treatment imaging, clinical and biologic variables, and chemotherapy regimen to inform the model, we estimated tumor-site chemotherapy concentration in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases, who received treatment prior to surgical hepatic resection with curative-intent. The differential response to therapy in resected specimens, measured with the gold-standard Tumor Regression Grade (TRG; from 1, complete response to 5, no response) was examined, relative to the model predicted systemic and tumor-site chemotherapy concentrations. We found that the average calculated plasma concentration of the cytotoxic drug was essentially equivalent across patients exhibiting different TRGs, while the estimated tumor-site chemotherapeutic concentration (eTSCC) showed a quadratic decline from TRG = 1 to TRG = 5 (p < 0.001). The eTSCC was significantly lower than the observed plasma concentration and dropped by a factor of ~5 between patients with complete response (TRG = 1) and those with no response (TRG = 5), while the plasma concentration remained stable across TRG groups. TRG variations were driven and predicted by differences in tumor perfusion and eTSCC. If confirmed in carefully planned prospective studies, these findings will form the basis of a paradigm shift in the care of patients with potentially curable colorectal cancer and liver metastases

Theory and Experimental Validation of a Spatio-temporal Model of Chemotherapy Transport to Enhance Tumor Cell Kill

<div><p>It has been hypothesized that continuously releasing drug molecules into the tumor over an extended period of time may significantly improve the chemotherapeutic efficacy by overcoming physical transport limitations of conventional bolus drug treatment. In this paper, we present a generalized space- and time-dependent mathematical model of drug transport and drug-cell interactions to quantitatively formulate this hypothesis. Model parameters describe: perfusion and tissue architecture (blood volume fraction and blood vessel radius); diffusion penetration distance of drug (i.e., a function of tissue compactness and drug uptake rates by tumor cells); and cell death rates (as function of history of drug uptake). We performed preliminary testing and validation of the mathematical model using <i>in vivo</i> experiments with different drug delivery methods on a breast cancer mouse model. Experimental data demonstrated a 3-fold increase in response using nano-vectored drug <i>vs</i>. free drug delivery, in excellent quantitative agreement with the model predictions. Our model results implicate that therapeutically targeting blood volume fraction, e.g., through vascular normalization, would achieve a better outcome due to enhanced drug delivery.</p><p>Author Summary</p><p>Cancer treatment efficacy can be significantly enhanced through the elution of drug from nano-carriers that can temporarily stay in the tumor vasculature. Here we present a relatively simple yet powerful mathematical model that accounts for both spatial and temporal heterogeneities of drug dosing to help explain, examine, and prove this concept. We find that the delivery of systemic chemotherapy through a certain form of nano-carriers would have enhanced tumor kill by a factor of 2 to 4 over the standard therapy that the patients actually received. We also find that targeting blood volume fraction (a parameter of the model) through vascular normalization can achieve more effective drug delivery and tumor kill. More importantly, this model only requires a limited number of parameters which can all be readily assessed from standard clinical diagnostic measurements (e.g., histopathology and CT). This addresses an important challenge in current translational research and justifies further development of the model towards clinical translation.</p></div

Illustration of transport-based hypothesis.

<p>By diffusion, a blood vessel supplies substrates to the cylindrical tissue volume surrounding the vessel. We hypothesize that at each position inside the tissue, the substrate supply is supported by the closest blood vessel. Thus, the influenced tissue surrounding a vessel can be estimated to be between a cylinder of radius <i>r</i>_b / (<i>L</i> BVF^1/2) in dimensionless form, and the vessel itself with dimensionless radius <i>r</i>_b / <i>L</i>. Theoretically, chemotherapeutic drugs delivered by a blood vessel kill the tissues immediately adjacent to the vessel, leaving some viable tissues on the far end. Here, we propose that through drug-loaded nano-carriers that can accumulate within tumors and continuously release drugs for a longer time (e.g., lasting several cell cycles), the drugs can penetrate further into the surrounding tissue volume and thus achieve a higher tumor killing ratio.</p