Building more accurate decision trees with the additive tree.

The expansion of machine learning to high-stakes application domains such as medicine, finance, and criminal justice, where making informed decisions requires clear understanding of the model, has increased the interest in interpretable machine learning. The widely used Classification and Regression Trees (CART) have played a major role in health sciences, due to their simple and intuitive explanation of predictions. Ensemble methods like gradient boosting can improve the accuracy of decision trees, but at the expense of the interpretability of the generated model. Additive models, such as those produced by gradient boosting, and full interaction models, such as CART, have been investigated largely in isolation. We show that these models exist along a spectrum, revealing previously unseen connections between these approaches. This paper introduces a rigorous formalization for the additive tree, an empirically validated learning technique for creating a single decision tree, and shows that this method can produce models equivalent to CART or gradient boosted stumps at the extremes by varying a single parameter. Although the additive tree is designed primarily to provide both the model interpretability and predictive performance needed for high-stakes applications like medicine, it also can produce decision trees represented by hybrid models between CART and boosted stumps that can outperform either of these approaches

Expert-augmented machine learning.

Machine learning is proving invaluable across disciplines. However, its success is often limited by the quality and quantity of available data, while its adoption is limited by the level of trust afforded by given models. Human vs. machine performance is commonly compared empirically to decide whether a certain task should be performed by a computer or an expert. In reality, the optimal learning strategy may involve combining the complementary strengths of humans and machines. Here, we present expert-augmented machine learning (EAML), an automated method that guides the extraction of expert knowledge and its integration into machine-learned models. We used a large dataset of intensive-care patient data to derive 126 decision rules that predict hospital mortality. Using an online platform, we asked 15 clinicians to assess the relative risk of the subpopulation defined by each rule compared to the total sample. We compared the clinician-assessed risk to the empirical risk and found that, while clinicians agreed with the data in most cases, there were notable exceptions where they overestimated or underestimated the true risk. Studying the rules with greatest disagreement, we identified problems with the training data, including one miscoded variable and one hidden confounder. Filtering the rules based on the extent of disagreement between clinician-assessed risk and empirical risk, we improved performance on out-of-sample data and were able to train with less data. EAML provides a platform for automated creation of problem-specific priors, which help build robust and dependable machine-learning models in critical applications

Total Hadronic Cross Section Data and the Froissart-Martin Bound

The energy dependence of the total hadronic cross section at high energies is investigated with focus on the recent experimental result by the TOTEM Collaboration at 7 TeV and the Froissart-Martin bound. On the basis of a class of analytical parametrization with the exponent $\gamma$ in the leading logarithm contribution as a free parameter, different variants of fits to $pp$ and $\bar{p}p$ total cross section data above 5 GeV are developed. Two ensembles are considered, the first comprising data up to 1.8 TeV, the second also including the data collected at 7 TeV. We shown that in all fit variants applied to the first ensemble the exponent is statistically consistent with $\gamma$ = 2. Applied to the second ensemble, however, the same variants yield $\gamma$'s above 2, a result already obtained in two other analysis, by U. Amaldi \textit{et al}. and by the UA4/2 Collaboration. As recently discussed by Ya. I. Azimov, this faster-than-squared-logarithm rise does not necessarily violate unitarity. Our results suggest that the energy dependence of the hadronic total cross section at high energies still constitute an open problem.Comment: 20 pages, 10 figures, introduction extended and general references added to match editorial style, to appear in the Brazilian Journal of Physic

Impact of COVID-19 on cardiovascular testing in the United States versus the rest of the world

Objectives: This study sought to quantify and compare the decline in volumes of cardiovascular procedures between the United States and non-US institutions during the early phase of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the care of many non-COVID-19 illnesses. Reductions in diagnostic cardiovascular testing around the world have led to concerns over the implications of reduced testing for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Methods: Data were submitted to the INCAPS-COVID (International Atomic Energy Agency Non-Invasive Cardiology Protocols Study of COVID-19), a multinational registry comprising 909 institutions in 108 countries (including 155 facilities in 40 U.S. states), assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on volumes of diagnostic cardiovascular procedures. Data were obtained for April 2020 and compared with volumes of baseline procedures from March 2019. We compared laboratory characteristics, practices, and procedure volumes between U.S. and non-U.S. facilities and between U.S. geographic regions and identified factors associated with volume reduction in the United States. Results: Reductions in the volumes of procedures in the United States were similar to those in non-U.S. facilities (68% vs. 63%, respectively; p = 0.237), although U.S. facilities reported greater reductions in invasive coronary angiography (69% vs. 53%, respectively; p < 0.001). Significantly more U.S. facilities reported increased use of telehealth and patient screening measures than non-U.S. facilities, such as temperature checks, symptom screenings, and COVID-19 testing. Reductions in volumes of procedures differed between U.S. regions, with larger declines observed in the Northeast (76%) and Midwest (74%) than in the South (62%) and West (44%). Prevalence of COVID-19, staff redeployments, outpatient centers, and urban centers were associated with greater reductions in volume in U.S. facilities in a multivariable analysis. Conclusions: We observed marked reductions in U.S. cardiovascular testing in the early phase of the pandemic and significant variability between U.S. regions. The association between reductions of volumes and COVID-19 prevalence in the United States highlighted the need for proactive efforts to maintain access to cardiovascular testing in areas most affected by outbreaks of COVID-19 infection

Impact of Interobserver Variability in Manual Segmentation of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Applying Low-Rank Radiomic Representation on Computed Tomography

This study tackles interobserver variability with respect to specialty training in manual segmentation of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Four readers included for segmentation are: a data scientist (BY), a medical student (LS), a radiology trainee (MH), and a specialty-trained radiologist (SK) for a total of 293 patients from two publicly available databases. S&oslash;rensen&ndash;Dice (SD) coefficients and low rank Pearson correlation coefficients (CC) of 429 radiomics were calculated to assess interobserver variability. Cox proportional hazard (CPH) models and Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves of overall survival (OS) prediction for each dataset were also generated. SD and CC for segmentations demonstrated high similarities, yielding, SD: 0.79 and CC: 0.92 (BY-SK), SD: 0.81 and CC: 0.83 (LS-SK), and SD: 0.84 and CC: 0.91 (MH-SK) in average for both databases, respectively. OS through the maximal CPH model for the two datasets yielded c-statistics of 0.7 (95% CI) and 0.69 (95% CI), while adding radiomic and clinical variables (sex, stage/morphological status, and histology) together. KM curves also showed significant discrimination between high- and low-risk patients (p-value &lt; 0.005). This supports that readers&rsquo; level of training and clinical experience may not significantly influence the ability to extract accurate radiomic features for NSCLC on CT. This potentially allows flexibility in the training required to produce robust prognostic imaging biomarkers for potential clinical translation

Radiomic Phenotypes for Improving Early Prediction of Survival in Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Adenocarcinoma after Chemoradiation

We evaluate radiomic phenotypes derived from CT scans as early predictors of overall survival (OS) after chemoradiation in stage III primary lung adenocarcinoma. We retrospectively analyzed 110 thoracic CT scans acquired between April 2012−October 2018. Patients received a median radiation dose of 66.6 Gy at 1.8 Gy/fraction delivered with proton (55.5%) and photon (44.5%) beam treatment, as well as concurrent chemotherapy (89%) with carboplatin-based (55.5%) and cisplatin-based (36.4%) doublets. A total of 56 death events were recorded. Using manual tumor segmentations, 107 radiomic features were extracted. Feature harmonization using ComBat was performed to mitigate image heterogeneity due to the presence or lack of intravenous contrast material and variability in CT scanner vendors. A binary radiomic phenotype to predict OS was derived through the unsupervised hierarchical clustering of the first principal components explaining 85% of the variance of the radiomic features. C-scores and likelihood ratio tests (LRT) were used to compare the performance of a baseline Cox model based on ECOG status and age, with a model integrating the radiomic phenotype with such clinical predictors. The model integrating the radiomic phenotype (C-score = 0.69, 95% CI = (0.62, 0.77)) significantly improved (p0.005) upon the baseline model (C-score = 0.65, CI = (0.57, 0.73)). Our results suggest that harmonized radiomic phenotypes can significantly improve OS prediction in stage III NSCLC after chemoradiation