Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks in Chile and Colombia

Structural VAR and Structural VEC models were estimated for Chile and Colombia, aiming at identifying fiscal policy shocks in both countries between 1990 and 2005. The impulse responses obtained allow the calculation of a peso-for-peso ($/$) effect on output of a shock to public spending and to the government's net tax revenues, providing a good notion of the incidence of fiscal policy shocks in both countries. When public finances are under control, as they are in Chile, fiscal policy seems to be more effective than when they lack stability and credibility, as seems to be the case of Colombia since the mid nineties.

IDENTIFYING FISCAL POLICY SHOCKS IN CHILE AND COLOMBIA

Structural VAR and Structural VEC models were estimated for Chile and Colombia, aiming at identifying fiscal policy shocks in both countries between 1990 and 2005. The impulse responses obtained allow the calculation of a pesofor- peso ($/$) effect on output of a shock to public spending and to the government's net tax revenues, providing a good notion of the incidence of fiscal policy shocks in both countries. When public finances are under control, as they are in Chile, fiscal policy seems to be more effective than when they lack stability and credibility, as seems to be the case of Colombia since the mid nineties.Identification, Fiscal Policy, SVAR, SVEC

Estimaciones de NAIRU para Chile

The purpose of this paper is to find a set of estimates for the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment ( NAIRU ) for Chile. Measuring the NAIRU permits to build the unemployment gap, which provides a complementary measure of aggregate demand and of the output gap. It is generally used by central banks as part of the set of indicators with which they project inflation and make policy decisions. Initially, an estimate is obtained from a purely statistical method (unknown components). Then calculations of both constant and variable NAIRU are made on the basis of Phillips curve equations. A final measure of NAIRU is obtained, based on an estimated autoregressive vector, identified with long-run restrictions. The various estimations yield similar results and indicate that the most likely point estimate of the current NAIRU is between 7.6% and 8.1%, with a 95% confidence interval that goes from 6.4% to 9.3%. This wide interval gives an idea of the highdegree of uncertainty regarding its point estimation.

Estimating the NAIRU for Chile

The purpose of this paper is to obtain a set of estimates of the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) for Chile. Measuring the NAIRU permits building the unemployment gap, which is a complementary measure of activity and output gap, which is used on a regular basis by central banks as another indicator helping in inflation forecasts and policy decision making. Initially, an estimate is obtained based on a purely statistical method (unobserved components) Later, estimates are conducted for both constant and variable NAIRU based on Phillips curve equations. The different estimates yield similar results, indicating that the most likely point estimate for the current NAIRU stands between 7.4% and 8.3%. However, these figures are contained in a confidence interval ranging from 6.5% to 9.7%, reflecting great uncertainty regarding the exact value of NAIRU.

Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy and the Central Bank´s Net Worth

This paper makes stochastic projections of the Central Bank of Chile’s (CBCh) balance sheet (stocks and flows) starting from the actual current negative net worth. These projections incorporate the effect on the balance sheet of several macroeconomic variables as well as alternative policy decisions, taking into account the uncertainty and risks inherent in the economy. The article describes and assesses the main causes of the present deficit. In the baseline scenario, the deterministic forecast shows that the Central Bank's net worth will increase slowly to reach positive values after 25 years. However, in the stochastic simulations the Bank's net worth will still be negative 25 years from now, with a 69 percent probability.

Multicriteria strategic approach for the selection of concrete suppliers in a construction company in Colombia

Within companies of the construction sector, the evaluation and selection of concrete suppliers, is considered a fundamental topic for the adequate construction of buildings, due to the impact it has, not only in the stability of the building but also in the productivity and the profitability. For an adequate selection, decision-makers must consider a series of criteria of different kind. However, as in different fields, due to the numerous criteria and alternatives that should be considered in the construction industry, the choice of an appropriate multicriteria decision-making approach has become a critical step in the selection of suppliers. Therefore, the objective of this research is to define the most adequate supplier of suitable concrete through the integration of powerful multicriteria decision-making methods. For this purpose, a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) is initially applied to define initial factor weights under uncertainty, followed, using the decision-making test and the evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) to evaluate the interrelationships between elements of the hierarchy. Then, after combining FAHP and DEMATEL to calculate the final contributions of the factors including the interdependence, finally TOPSIS technique is used for the order of preference for the similarity with the ideal solution to evaluate and determine the best supplier

Effects of body weight and research conditions on the productive energy content of corn germ meal fed to growing-finishing pigs

Four experiments were conducted to investigate the effect of corn germ meal (CGM) inclusion level on growth performance and carcass traits of pigs, and to determine the productive energy (PE) of CGM by correcting ME estimates for caloric efficiency relative to a control (reference diet). All four experiments used a RCBD. The first two experiments were conducted from weaning (~6.5 kg BW) to finishing (~130 kg BW) at a commercial facility with CGM inclusions that ranged from 0 (Control) to 40%. The corn-soybean meal-based control diet (0% CGM) was used as the reference diet to compare with the CGM diets to estimate PE. Caloric efficiency (calories consumed per unit of weight gain) was calculated for each treatment using the feed:gain ratio. The ME value of CGM used to formulate diets in the first experiment was 3,037 kcal/kg. In this study, increasing CGM level linearly increased feed:gain (P 0.05) in both experiments but numerically very different in Exp. 2 (2,465, 2,568, and 2,439, respectively, for Exp.1, and 2,455, 1,829, and 1,924, respectively, for Exp. 2). For Exp. 1 (commercial conditions), adding fat to the CGM diet resulted in similar productive ME estimates for CGM compared to CGM‒No Fat diet when measured during the whole of the Growing-Finishing period. Under university conditions (Exp. 2), fat addition to the CGM diet resulted in variable PE estimates between growing periods, and numerically greater values than those obtained with the CGM-No Fat diets. The results of these experiments suggest that the PE of CGM should be determined under commercial research conditions due to the variable results obtained under university conditions. Also, estimating PE over a limited part of the growing period resulted in similar PE estimates to those obtained during the whole of the growing-finishing period