CRISPR-mediated antiviral defence in prokaryotes

cum laude graduation (with distinction

Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap

The output gap (measuring the deviation of output from its potential) is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. The output gap is also an important variable in itself, as a measure of economic fluctuations. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This paper evaluates a series of univariate and multivariate methods for extracting the output gap, and compares their value added in predicting inflation. The multivariate measures of the output gap have by far the best predictive power. This is in particular interesting, as they use information from data that are not revised in real time. We therefore compare the predictive power of alternative indicators that are less revised in real time, such as the unemployment rate and other business cycle indicators. Some of the alternative indicators do as well, or better, than the multivariate output gaps in predicting inflation. As uncertainties are particularly pronounced at the end of the calculation periods, assessment of pressures in the economy based on the uncertain output gap could benefit from being supplemented with alternative indicators that are less revised in real time.Output gap, real time indicators, forecasting, Phillips curve

Is resilience a favourable concept in terrorism research? The multifaceted discourses of resilience in the academic literature

The concept of resilience is frequently found in academic documents describing the favoured solution for how to address the threat of terrorism. Despite this, few attempts have been made to critically examine what resilience means and whether it is a favourable concept in terrorism research. Since multiple researchers in other disciplines have claimed that the resilience concept serves as an umbrella concept for a range of positive attributes, this study investigates the different discourses that resilience in the academic terrorism literature is built upon. The analysis outlines five different discourses in the academic literature that contain different descriptions of what it means to be resilient regarding terrorism. It is concluded that the meaning of terrorism resilience in the academic literature is multifaceted, ambiguous and sometimes contradictory. The positive connotation embedded in the concept of resilience and the absence of a description of what it means not to be resilient is problematic because it turns resilience into a utopian goal rather than a realistic counterterrorism project. Moreover, resilience normalises the view of terrorism as a ubiquitous omnipresent threat and legitimises counterterrorism measures as a positive, depoliticised necessity. Resilience is serving ideological purposes, and thus researchers should not uncritically accept resilience as the solution to the threat of terrorism.publishedVersio

Real-time Data for Norway: Challenges for Monetary Policy

National accounts data are always revised. Not only recent data, but also figures dating many years back can be revised substantially. This means that there is a danger that an important part of the central bank's information set is flawed for a long period of time. In this paper we present a data base consisting of various vintages of real-time data from 1993Q1 to 2003Q4. We describe the nature of the data revisions, the causes of the revisions, and investigate whether the revisions are true martingale differences, or whether they can be forecasted. In the spirit of Orphanides and van Norden (2002), we analyze how data revisions and model uncertainty affect the reliability of output gap estimates. We also compare Taylor type interest rate rules based on real-time data versus final data and assess the consequences for monetary policy if policy was conducted using this type of interest rate rules. Finally, we analyze the implications of output gap uncertainty for monetary policy using a small New Keynesian macroeconomic model. --Monetary policy,output gap,real-time data,interest rate rules

Ontological and epistemological challenges of measuring the effectiveness of urban counterterrorism measures

Cities and their citizens are increasingly seen as vulnerable targets for terrorist attacks, and nowadays city planners have become important actors in making decisions about urban security. Multiple urban counterterrorism measures that have affected the urban landscape have been implemented in recent years. Simultaneously, new legislation requires security measures to be effective. This article outlines and discusses the epistemological and ontological challenges of acquiring knowledge about the effectiveness of urban counterterrorism measures from a local city planner’s perspective. This piece of work is a discussion paper based on a literature review. We conclude that, despite the knowledge limitations regarding the threat of urban terrorism and associated countermeasures, local planners should refrain from just uncritically implementing urban countermeasures without considering the effectiveness of such measures. Without knowledge on what constitutes the effectiveness of urban security measures, the city might end up infringing the same values that it aims to protect, without achieving security.publishedVersio

Maladaptive Personality Traits and Sex Addiction Profiles

How do pathological personality traits relate to specific expressions of compulsive sexual behaviors? Previous studies have concluded that there are only small relationships between these two constructs, but such studies have usually conceptualized sexual compulsion as a unidimensional construct. The current study used a correlational design to evaluate the relationship between pathological personality traits and six general domains of sexually compulsive behaviors and cognitions in an inpatient and outpatient clinical sample (N = 540) of males seeking treatment for sex addiction. The pathological personality trait results were assessed using the MMPI-2 Psychopathology Five (PSY-5) domain and facet traits. The sexually compulsive behaviors and cognitions were measured by seven higher-order factors of the Sexual Dependency Inventory-4.0 scales. Based on the findings of previous studies and theory, it was expected that the PSY-5 factors and facet traits Disconstraint, Negative Emotionality/Neuroticism, Psychoticism, and Mistrust would have small to moderate associations with sexual compulsivity in the sample. Data were analyzed at three different levels. First, zero-order correlations were used to analyze the relationship between the PSY-5 domain and facets scales, SDl-4.0 higher order factors, and SDI-4.0 individual scales. Next, multiple regression analyses were conducted to see how each PSY-5 domain and facet scales related to each of the higher-order factors of sexual compulsive behaviors. Finally, canonical correlation analyses were used to explore the relationships between the PSY-5 domain and facet scales with the SDI-4.0 higher order factors at the multivariate level. The results were largely consistent with what was hypothesized. The PSY-5 domains primarily related to the measures of sexual addictions and cognitions were Disconstraint, Negative Emotionality/Neuroticism, and Psychotic ism. The PSY-5 facets added greater definition to the results and accounted for more variance in the canonical correlations analysis compared to the canonical correlation analysis of the PSY-5 domains. The findings suggest that the PSY-5 facets may have clinical utility above and beyond the PSY-5 domains due to their greater specificity, enabling clinicians to target very specific problematic traits in therapy

HMAS: enabling seamless collaboration between drones, quadruped robots, and human operators with efficient spatial awareness

Heterogeneous robots equipped with multi-modal sensors (e.g., UAV, wheeled and legged terrestrial robots) provide rich and complementary functions that may help human operators to accomplish complex tasks in unknown environments. However, seamlessly integrating heterogeneous agents and making them interact and collaborate still arise challenging issues. In this paper, we define a ROS 2 based software architecture that allows to build incarnated heterogeneous multi-agent systems (HMAS) in a generic way. We showcase its effectiveness through a scenario integrating aerial drones, quadruped robots, and human operators (see https://youtu.be/iOtCCticGuk). In addition, agent spatial awareness in unknown outdoor environments is a critical step for realizing autonomous individual movements, interactions, and collaborations. Through intensive experimental measurements, RTK-GPS is shown to be a suitable solution for achieving the required locating accuracy

NGC 4138 - A Case Study in Counterrotating Disk Formation

The Sa(r) galaxy NGC 4138 has been recently found to contain an extensive counterrotating disk which appears to be still forming. Up to a third of the stars in the disk system may be on retrograde orbits. A counterrotating ring of H II regions, along with extended counterrotating H I gas, suggests that the retrograde material has been recently acquired in the gas phase and is still trickling in. Using numerical simulations, we have attempted to model the process by which the counterrotating mass has been accreted by this galaxy. We investigate two possibilities: continuous retrograde infall of gas, and a retrograde merger with a gas-rich dwarf galaxy. Both processes are successful in producing a counterrotating disk of the observed mass and dimensions without heating up the primary significantly. Contrary to our experience with a fiducial cold, thin primary disk, the gas-rich merger works well for the massive, compact primary disk of NGC 4138 even though the mass of the dwarf galaxy is a significant fraction of the mass of the primary disk. Although we have restricted ourselves mainly to coplanar infall and mergers, we report on one inclined infall simulation as well. We also explore the possibility that the H-alpha ring seen in the inner half of the disk is a consequence of counterrotating gas clouds colliding with corotating gas already present in the disk and forming stars in the process.Comment: To appear in ApJ, 21 pages, LaTeX (aaspp4) format, 17 figs (gzipped tar file) also available at ftp://bessel.mps.ohio-state.edu/pub/thakar/cr2/ or at http://www-astronomy.mps.ohio-state.edu/~thakar

Two-Stream Instability of Counter-Rotating Galaxies

The present study of the two-stream instability in stellar disks with counter-rotating components of stars and/or gas is stimulated by recently discovered counter-rotating spiral and S0 galaxies. Strong linear two-stream instability of tightly-wrapped spiral waves is found for one and two-armed waves with the pattern angular speed of the unstable waves always intermediate between the angular speed of the co-rotating matter ($+\Omega$) and that of the counter-rotating matter ($-\Omega$). The instability arises from the interaction of positive and negative energy modes in the co- and counter-rotating components. The unstable waves are in general convective - they move in radius and radial wavenumber space - with the result that amplification of the advected wave is more important than the local growth rate. For a galaxy of co-rotating stars and counter-rotating stars of mass-fraction $\xi_* < {1\over 2}$, or of counter-rotating gas of mass-fraction $\xi_g < {1\over 2}$, the largest amplification is usually for the one-armed leading waves (with respect to the co-rotating stars). For the case of both counter-rotating stars and gas, the largest amplifications are for $\xi_*+\xi_g \approx {1\over 2}$, also for one-armed leading waves. The two-armed trailing waves usually have smaller amplifications. The growth rates and amplifications all decrease as the velocity spreads of the stars and/or gas increase. It is suggested that the spiral waves can provide an effective viscosity for the gas causing its accretion.Comment: 14 pages, submitted to ApJ. One table and 17 figures can be obtained by sending address to R. Lovelace at [email protected]