Early sexual debut: Voluntary or coerced? Evidence from longitudinal data in South Africa – the Birth to Twenty Plus study

Background. Early sexual debut, voluntary or coerced, increases risks to sexual and reproductive health. Sexual coercion is increasingly receiving attention as an important public health issue owing to its association with adverse health and social outcomes.Objective. To describe voluntary and coerced experience at sexual debut.Methods. A longitudinal perspective among 2 216 adolescents (1 149 females, 1 067 males) in a birth cohort study in South Africa, analysing data collected on six occasions between 11 and 18 years.Results. The median age of sexual debut was 16 years for females and 15 for males. Reported coerced sexual debut included children <11 years of age. Males reported earlier sexual debut, with both voluntary and coerced sexual experience, than females (p<0.0001). Sexual coercion at early sexual debut among both male and female adolescents occurred mostly through sexual intercourse with older adolescents and partners of the same age.Conclusion. The identified time periods and age groups need to be targeted for interventions to delay sexual debut and prevent sexual coercion among young people. More research is needed to understand underlying predisposing risk factors for sexual coercion at sexual debut, both early and not early

Flexible modelling of risk factors on the incidence of pneumonia in young children in South Africa using piece-wise exponential additive mixed modelling

Introduction Recurrent episodes of pneumonia are frequently modeled using extensions of the Cox proportional hazards model with the underlying assumption of time-constant relative risks measured by the hazard ratio. We aim to relax this assumption in a study on the effect of factors on the evolution of pneumonia incidence over time based on data from a South African birth cohort study, the Drakenstein child health study. Methods We describe and apply two models: a time-constant and a time-varying relative effects model in a piece-wise exponential additive mixed model’s framework for recurrent events. A more complex model that fits in the same framework is applied to study the continuously measured seasonal effects. Results We find that several risk factors (male sex, preterm birth, low birthweight, lower socioeconomic status, lower maternal education and maternal cigarette smoking) have strong relative effects that are persistent across time. When time-varying effects are allowed in the model, HIV exposure status (HIV exposed & uninfected versus HIV unexposed) shows a strong relative effect for younger children, but this effect weakens as children grow older, with a null effect reached from about 15 months. Weight-for-length at birth shows a time increasing relative effect. We also find that children born in the summer have a much higher risk of pneumonia in the 3-to-8-month age period compared with children born in winter. Conclusion This work highlights the usefulness of flexible modelling tools in recurrent events models. It avoids stringent assumptions and allows estimation and visualization of absolute and relative risks over time of key factors associated with incidence of pneumonia in young children, providing new perspectives on the role of risk factors such HIV exposure

Longitudinal Population Dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus in the Nasopharynx During the First Year of Life

Background:Staphylococcus aureus colonization is a risk factor for invasive disease. Few studies have used strain genotype data to study S. aureus acquisition and carriage patterns. We investigated S. aureus nasopharyngeal carriage in infants in an intensively sampled South African birth cohort.Methods: Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected at birth and fortnightly from 137 infants through their first year of life. S. aureus was characterized by spa-typing. The incidence of S. aureus acquisition, and median carriage duration for each genotype was determined. S. aureus carriage patterns were defined by combining the carrier index (proportion of samples testing positive for S. aureus) with genotype diversity measures. Persistent or prolonged carriage were defined by a carrier index ≥0.8 or ≥0.5, respectively. Risk factors for time to acquisition of S. aureus were determined.Results: Eighty eight percent (121/137) of infants acquired S. aureus at least once. The incidence of acquisition at the species and genotype level was 1.83 and 2.8 episodes per child-year, respectively. No children had persistent carriage (defined as carrier index of >0.8). At the species level 6% had prolonged carriage, while only 2% had prolonged carriage with the same genotype. Carrier index correlated with the absolute number of spa-CCs carried by each infant (r = 0.5; 95% CI 0.35–0.62). Time to first acquisition of S. aureus was shorter in children from households with ≥5 individuals (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.07–1.43), with S. aureus carrier mothers (HR; 1.5, 95% CI 1.2–2.47), or with a positive tuberculin skin test during the first year of life (HR; 1.81, 95% CI 0.97–3.3).Conclusion: Using measures of genotype diversity, we showed that S. aureus NP carriage is highly dynamic in infants. Prolonged carriage with a single strain occurred rarely; persistent carriage was not observed. A correlation was observed between carrier index and genotype diversity

Susceptibility of Anopheles gambiae to Natural Plasmodium falciparum Infection: A Comparison between the Well-Established Anopheles gambiae s.s Line and a Newly Established Ugandan Anopheles gambiae s.s. Line

Much of our understanding of malaria transmission comes from mosquito feeding assays using Anopheles mosquitoes from colonies that are well adapted to membrane feeding. This raises the question whether results from colony mosquitoes lead to overestimates of outcomes in wild Anopheles mosquitoes. We successfully established an Anopheles colony using progeny of wild Anopheles gambiae s.s. mosquitoes (Busia mosquitoes) and directly compared their susceptibility to infection with Plasmodium falciparum with the widely used An. gambiae s.s. mosquitoes (Kisumu mosquitoes) using gametocyte-infected Ugandan donor blood. The proportion of infectious feeds did not differ between Busia (71.8%, 23/32) and Kisumu (68.8%, 22/32, P = 1.00) mosquitoes. When correcting for random effects of donor blood, we observed a 23% higher proportion of infected Busia mosquitoes than infected Kisumu mosquitoes (RR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.10–1.38, P < 0.001). This study suggests that feeding assays with Kisumu mosquitoes do not overestimate outcomes in wild An. gambiae s.s. mosquitoes, the mosquito species most relevant to malaria transmission in Uganda

Asymptomatic school-aged children are important drivers of malaria transmission in a high endemicity setting in Uganda.

Achieving malaria elimination requires a better understanding of the transmissibility of human infections in different transmission settings. This study aimed to characterize the human infectious reservoir in a high endemicity setting in eastern Uganda, using gametocyte quantification and mosquito feeding assays. In asymptomatic infections, gametocyte densities were positively associated with the proportion of infected mosquitoes (β=1.60, 95%CI 1.32-1.92, p < 0.0001). Combining transmissibility and abundance in the population, symptomatic and asymptomatic infections were estimated to contribute to 5.3% and 94.7% of the infectious reservoir, respectively. School-aged children (5-15 years-old) contributed to 50.4% of transmission events and were important drivers of malaria transmission

Sources of persistent malaria transmission in a setting with effective malaria control in eastern Uganda: a longitudinal, observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Symptomatic malaria cases reflect only a small proportion of all Plasmodium spp infections. Many infected individuals are asymptomatic, and persistent asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections are common in endemic settings. We aimed to quantify the contribution of symptomatic and asymptomatic infections to P falciparum transmission in Tororo, Uganda. METHODS: We did a longitudinal, observational cohort study in Tororo district, Uganda. We recruited participants of all ages from randomly selected households within this district. Participants were eligible if the selected household had no more than nine permanent residents and at least two members younger than 10 years, and the household was their primary residence, and they agreed to come to the study clinic for any fever episode and avoid antimalarial medications outside the study. Participants were followed-up by continuous passive surveillance for the incidence of symptomatic infections; routine assessments (ie, standardised clinical evaluation and blood samples) were done at baseline and at routine visits every 4 weeks for 2 years. P falciparum parasite density, gametocyte density, and genetic composition were determined molecularly using quantitative PCR (qPCR), quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR), and amplicon deep sequencing, respectively. Membrane feeding assays were also done to assess infectivity to mosquitoes. The contribution of different populations to the infectious reservoir was estimated for symptomatic infections, asymptomatic but microscopically detected infections, and asymptomatic but qPCR-detected infections; and for age groups younger than 5 years, 5-15 years, and 16 years or older. FINDINGS: Between Oct 4, 2017, and Oct 31, 2019, 531 individuals were enrolled from 80 randomly selected households and were followed-up for 2 years. At baseline, P falciparum was detected in 28 (5·3%) of 531 participants by microscopy and an additional 64 (12·1%) by qPCR and declined thereafter. In 538 mosquito feeding experiments on 107 individuals, 446 (1·2%) of 37 404 mosquitoes became infected, with mosquito infection rates being strongly associated with gametocyte densities (β=2·11, 95% CI 1·62-2·67; p<0·0001). Considering both transmissibility of infections and their relative frequency, the estimated human infectious reservoir consisted primarily of asymptomatic microscopy-detected infections (83·8%), followed by asymptomatic submicroscopic infections (15·6%), and symptomatic infections (0·6%). Children aged 5-15 years accounted for more than half of the infectious reservoir (58·7%); individuals younger than 5 years (25·8%) and those 16 years or older (15·6%) contributed less. Samples from four children contribued to 279 (62·6%) of 446 infected mosquitoes after multiple mosquito-feeding assays. INTERPRETATION: Individuals with asymptomatic infections were important drivers of malaria transmission. School-aged children contributed to more than half of all mosquito infections, with a small minority of asymptomatic children being highly infectious. Demographically targeted interventions, aimed at school-aged children, could further reduce transmission in areas under effective vector control. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the European Research Council

Naturally acquired antibodies to gametocyte antigens are associated with reduced transmission of Plasmodium vivax gametocytes to Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes

Naturally acquired antibodies may reduce the transmission of Plasmodium gametocytes to mosquitoes. Here, we investigated associations between antibody prevalence and P. vivax infectivity to mosquitoes. A total of 368 microscopy confirmed P. vivax symptomatic patients were passively recruited from health centers in Ethiopia and supplemented with 56 observations from asymptomatic P. vivax parasite carriers. Direct membrane feeding assays (DMFA) were performed to assess mosquito infectivity; for selected feeds these experiments were also performed after replacing autologous plasma with malaria naïve control serum (n=61). The prevalence of antibodies against 6 sexual stage antigens (Pvs47, Pvs48/45, Pvs230, PvsHAP2, Pvs25 and PvCelTOS) and an array of asexual antigens was determined by ELISA and multiplexed bead-based assays. Gametocyte (ρ&lt; 0.42; p = 0.0001) and parasite (ρ = 0.21; p = 0.0001) densities were positively associated with mosquito infection rates. Antibodies against Pvs47, Pvs230 and Pvs25 were associated with 23 and 34% reductions in mosquito infection rates (p&lt;0.0001), respectively. Individuals who showed evidence of transmission blockade in serum-replacement DMFAs (n=8) were significantly more likely to have PvsHAP2 or Pvs47 antibodies. Further studies may demonstrate causality for the observed associations, improve our understanding of the natural transmission of P. vivax and support vaccine development

Preoperative risk stratification in endometrial cancer (ENDORISK) by a Bayesian network model: A development and validation study

Background: Bayesian networks (BNs) are machine-learning-based computational models that visualize causal relationships and provide insight into the processes underlying disease progression, closely resembling clinical decision-making. Preoperative identification of patients at risk for lymph node metastasis (LNM) is challenging in endometrial cancer, and although several biomarkers are related to LNM, none of them are incorporated in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a preoperative BN to predict LNM and outcome in endometrial cancer patients.Methods and findings: Within the European Network for Individualized Treatment of Endometrial Cancer (ENI-TEC), we performed a retrospective multicenter cohort study including 763 patients, median age 65 years (interquartile range [IQR] 58-71), surgically treated for endometrial cancer between February 1995 and August 2013 at one of the 10 participating European hospitals. A BN was developed using score-based machine learning in addition to expert knowledge. Our main outcome measures were LNM and 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS). Preoperative clinical, histopathological, and molecular biomarkers were included in the network. External validation was performed using 2 prospective study cohorts: the Molecular Markers in Treatment in Endometrial Cancer (MoMaTEC) study cohort, including 446 Norwegian patients, median age 64 years (IQR 59-74), treated between May 2001 and 2010; and the PIpelle Prospective ENDOmetrial carcinoma (PIPENDO) study cohort, including 384 Dutch patients, median age 66 years (IQR 60-73), treated between September 2011 and December 2013. A BN called ENDORISK (preoperative risk stratification in endometrial cancer) was developed including the following predictors: preoperative tumor grade; immunohistochemical expression of estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), p53, and L1 cell adhesion molecule (L1CAM); cancer antigen 125 serum level; thrombocyte count; imaging results on lymphadenopathy; and cervical cytology. In the MoMaTEC cohort, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.88) for LNM and 0.82 (95% CI 0.77-0.87) for 5-year DSS. In the PIPENDO cohort, the AUC for 5-year DSS was 0.84 (95% CI 0.78-0.90). The network was well-calibrated. In the MoMaTEC cohort, 249 patients (55.8%) were classified with Conclusions: In this study, we illustrated how BNs can be used for individualizing clinical decision-making in oncology by incorporating easily accessible and multimodal biomarkers. The network shows the complex interactions underlying the carcinogenetic process of endometrial cancer by its graphical representation. A prospective feasibility study will be needed prior to implementation in the clinic.</div

Quantifying Reductions in Plasmodium falciparum Infectivity to Mosquitos: A Sample Size Calculator to Inform Clinical Trials on Transmission-Reducing Interventions.

Malaria transmission depends on the presence of mature Plasmodium transmission stages (gametocytes) that may render blood-feeding Anopheles mosquitos infectious. Transmission-blocking antimalarial drugs and vaccines can prevent transmission by reducing gametocyte densities or infectivity to mosquitos. Mosquito infection outcomes are thereby informative biological endpoints of clinical trials with transmission blocking interventions. Nevertheless, trials are often primarily designed to determine intervention safety; transmission blocking efficacy is difficult to incorporate in sample size considerations due to variation in infection outcomes and considerable inter-study variation. Here, we use clinical trial data from studies in malaria naive and naturally exposed study participants to present an online sample size calculator tool. This sample size calculator allows studies to be powered to detect reductions in the proportion of infected mosquitos or infection burden (oocyst density) in mosquitos. The utility of this online tool is illustrated using trial data with transmission blocking malaria drugs

Longitudinal population dynamics of staphylococcus aureus in the nasopharynx during the first year of life

The original publication is available at https://www.frontiersin.orgBackground: Staphylococcus aureus colonization is a risk factor for invasive disease. Few studies have used strain genotype data to study S. aureus acquisition and carriage patterns. We investigated S. aureus nasopharyngeal carriage in infants in an intensively sampled South African birth cohort. Methods: Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected at birth and fortnightly from 137 infants through their first year of life. S. aureus was characterized by spa-typing. The incidence of S. aureus acquisition, and median carriage duration for each genotype was determined. S. aureus carriage patterns were defined by combining the carrier index (proportion of samples testing positive for S. aureus) with genotype diversity measures. Persistent or prolonged carriage were defined by a carrier index ≥0.8 or ≥0.5, respectively. Risk factors for time to acquisition of S. aureus were determined. Results: Eighty eight percent (121/137) of infants acquired S. aureus at least once. The incidence of acquisition at the species and genotype level was 1.83 and 2.8 episodes per child-year, respectively. No children had persistent carriage (defined as carrier index of >0.8). At the species level 6% had prolonged carriage, while only 2% had prolonged carriage with the same genotype. Carrier index correlated with the absolute number of spa-CCs carried by each infant (r = 0.5; 95% CI 0.35–0.62). Time to first acquisition of S. aureus was shorter in children from households with ≥5 individuals (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.07–1.43), with S. aureus carrier mothers (HR; 1.5, 95% CI 1.2–2.47), or with a positive tuberculin skin test during the first year of life (HR; 1.81, 95% CI 0.97–3.3). Conclusion: Using measures of genotype diversity, we showed that S. aureus NP carriage is highly dynamic in infants. Prolonged carriage with a single strain occurred rarely; persistent carriage was not observed. A correlation was observed between carrier index and genotype diversity.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fgene.2019.00198/fullPublisher's versio