The Threat of Terrorism: The Perspective of a Policy-Maker

This note defines and analyzes the most important issues concerning decisionmaking about human-induced insecurities such as terrorism and organized crime from the perspective of a policymaker. By means of modeling the policymakers trade-o_ between the e_ectiveness and costs of policy measures targeted at reducing the threat of terrorism, we aim at helping to understand the role economic research can take to enable e_cient decisionmaking in the context of human-induced insecurities in general and terrorism in particular.

Subjective data in a test of the life cycle model

Abstract The life cycle model is a cornerstone model in modern micro-and macro economics. The life cycle model offers a rationale for savings behavior, as individuals or households are assumed to value future utility in current period decisionmaking. A frequently employed test on the validity of the life cycle model is based on the orthogonality conditions implied by the first order condition of the problem: the Euler equation of consumption 1 Secondly, conventional tests may suffer from low power as it can be difficult to statistically distinguish an "extended life cycle model" from alternative theories of behavior. In this paper, I strongly reject the life cycle model with constant discount rates. The model with household specific discount rates is (only) borderline rejected

The quality of school track assignment decisions by teachers

We study the quality of secondary school track assignment decisions in the Netherlands, using a regression discontinuity design. In 6th grade, primary school teachers assign each student to a secondary school track. If a student scores above a track-specific cutoff on the standardized end-of-primary education test, the teacher can upwardly revise this assignment. By comparing students just left and right of these cutoffs, we find that between 50-90% of the students are "trapped in track": these students are on the high track after four years, only if they started on the high track in first year. The remaining (minority of) students are "always low": they are always on the low track after four years, independently of where they started. These proportions hold for students near the cutoffs that shift from the low to the high track in first year by scoring above the cutoff. Hence, for a majority of these students the initial (unrevised) track assignment decision is too low. The results replicate across most of the secondary school tracks, from the vocational to the academic tracks, and stand out against an education system with a lot of upward and downward track mobility

The Threat of Terrorism: The Perspective of a Policy-Maker

This note defines and analyzes the most important issues concerning decisionmaking about human-induced insecurities such as terrorism and organized crime from the perspective of a policymaker. By means of modeling the policymakers trade-o_ between the e_ectiveness and costs of policy measures targeted at reducing the threat of terrorism, we aim at helping to understand the role economic research can take to enable e_cient decisionmaking in the context of human-induced insecurities in general and terrorism in particular

Double for nothing? Experimental evidence on an unconditional teacher salary increase in Indonesia

How does a large unconditional increase in salary affect the performance of incumbent employees in the public sector?We present experimental evidence on this question in the context of a policy change in Indonesia that led to a permanent doubling of teacher base salaries. Using a large-scale randomized experiment across a representative sample of Indonesian schools that accelerated this pay increase for teachers in treated schools, we find that the large pay increase significantly improved teachers' satisfaction with their income, reduced the incidence of teachers holding outside jobs, and reduced self-reported financial stress. Nevertheless, after two and three years, the increase in pay led to no improvement in student learning outcomes. The effects are precisely estimated, and we can rule out even modest positive impacts on test scores. Our results suggest that unconditional pay increases are unlikely to be an effective policy option for improving the effort and productivity of incumbent employees in public-sector settings

Teacher Reform in Indonesia: The Role of Politics and Evidence in Policy Making

Teacher Reform in Indonesia: The Role of Politics and Evidence in Policy Making is the result of seven years of collaborative effort between the Human Development Sector of the World Bank Indonesia country office and the Government of Indonesia. The Human Development Sector, led by Mae Chu Chang, produced over 50 independent background papers by Bank staff, government researchers, and international consultants, as well several major research projects including an impact evaluation and in-depth classroom observations. This synthesis report was prepared under the team leadership of Mae Chu Chang and included as mem- bers Samer Al-Samarrai, Andrew Ragatz, Joppe de Ree, Sheldon Shaeffer, and Ritchie Stevenson (co-authors) as well as Rina Arlianti, Susiana Iskandar, and Titie Hadiyati (contributors). Research assistance was provided by Shahnaz Arina, Megha Kapoor, Imam Setiawan, and Susie Sugiarti. Mary Anderson provided editorial support, and the graphic designer was Yvonne Armanto Ramali. \ud The production of this report, as well as the variety of research studies con- ducted over the past seven years on which the book is based, was generously supported by the Dutch Education Support Program (DESP) funded by the Government of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. The team is indebted to Arnold Vander Zanden (First Secretary Education, Royal Netherlands Embassy, Indonesia) for his strong support throughout the years for demand-driven and “just-in-time” policy work that has been carried out under DESP. Technical con- tributions from AusAID-supported consultants, Graham Dawson and John Bladen, are also acknowledged. \ud It should be noted that although inputs of various officials have been incorpo- rated into the report, the policy recommendations in this document do not necessarily reflect the policies of the Government of Indonesia, the Government of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, or the World Bank. \ud The team of authors who produced this report is grateful to the officials and staff of the Ministry of Education and Culture for their overall support. Special thanks are in order to Fasli Jalal, former Vice Minister of Education, who was the visionary behind the Teacher Law that inspired this report and a key supporter of many of the teacher management studies that contributed to it. The current Minister of Education and Culture, Mohammad Nuh; Vice Minister of Education, Musliar Kasim; the Special Advisor to the Minister, Taufik Hanafi; the Head of \ud the Board of Education and Culture, Human Resources Development and Quality Assurance for Education, Syawal Gultom; and the former Director General for Quality Improvement of Teacher and Education Personnel, Baedhowi, played major roles in using the evidence produced to improve the teacher regula- tions. The report also benefited greatly from the inputs of the Ministry of Religious Affairs, the National Development Planning Agency, the Ministry of State Administration Reform, the Ministry of Finance, and the Civil Service Agency, together with inputs of donor agencies that were received during various consultation meetings and policy forum discussions. Key government support came from the directors, the head of centers, and senior key staff of the Ministry responsible for teacher management, quality assurance, and teacher-related stud- ies: Sumarna Suryapranata, Surya Dharma, Hendarman, Unifah Rosyidi, Abi Sujak, Muchlas Samani, Anah Suhaenah, Gogot Suharwoto, Maria Widiani, Poppy Puspitawati, Dian Wahyuni, Santi Ambarukmi, E. Nurzaman, Giri Suryaatmana, Ahmad Dasuki, Bambang Indriyanto, Nugaan Yulia Wardhani Siregar, Hari Setiadi, Burhanudin Tola, Yendri Wirda Burhan, Simon Sili Sabon, Rahmawati, Handayani Sumarno, Rumtini, Yaya Zakaria, and M.S. Sembiring. \ud Insightful comments from stakeholders were provided by Lilian Rahman (Gorontalo district), Sulistiyo (Chair of the Teacher Association of Republic of Indonesia, PGRI), Sahiri Hermawan (PGRI), Arief Rahman (Chair of the Indonesian National Commission for UNESCO), Heri Akhmadi (a member of Parliament), Anies Baswedan (Rector of Paramadina University and Chair of Indonesia Mengajar), Hetty Herawati (Principal of SD Taruna Bangsa), Sudarwan Danim and Anthony Crocker (consultants at the Board of Education and Culture, Human Resources Development and Quality Assurance for Education), Agus Supriatman (Head of the Education Office, Karawang District), Nanda Suhanda (a member of the Karawang District Parliament), Obang Nurbayu (Head of PGRI, Karawang District), and Nanang Muchlis (Chair, Board of Education, Karawang District). \ud The report was improved by detailed feedback from the following principal reviewers: F. Halsey Rogers, Venkatesh Sundararaman, and Helen J. Craig (World Bank); Molly Lee (formerly UNESCO); and Tom Lowrie (Charles Sturt University). Helpful comments were also received from William Wallace, James A. Brumby, and Yasuhiko Matsuda (World Bank). The report was prepared under the guidance of Luis Benveniste, Sector Manager, East Asia and Pacific Region, and the support of Stefan Koeberle (Country Director for Indonesia)

When you need it or when I die? Timing of monetary transfers from parents to children

This paper investigates the timing of wealth transfers between generations. We develop an overlapping generations model in which each generation can borrow against its future income but not against expected bequest. As a result, generations relatively poorer than their parents may end up not smoothing consumption. We prove that if wealth transfers can take place earlier in life, then each generation smooths consumption despite the constraint on borrowing and the first best solution is restored. The model implies that parents transfer resources when the children are credit constrained. This implication is tested using Dutch survey data on households' intentions to make intervivos transfers matched with administrative data that allow to construct a measure of the probability of being in need of a transfer. All in all, the paper highlights the importance of intervivos transfers as a device that households can resort to in order to mitigate inter--generational wealth inequalities

Life satisfaction and age:Dealing with underidentification in age-period-cohort models

Recent literature typically finds a U shaped relationship between life satisfaction and age. Age profiles, however, are not identified without forcing arbitrary restrictions on the cohort and/or time profiles. In this paper we report what can be identified about the relationship between life satisfaction and age without applying such restrictions. Also, we identify the restrictions needed to conclude that life satisfaction is U shaped in age. For the case of Germany, we find that the relationship between life satisfaction and age is indeed U shaped, but only under the untestable condition that the linear time trend is negative and that the linear trend across birth cohorts is practically flat. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved