Cost-Effectiveness of Adolescent Pertussis Vaccination for The Netherlands: Using an Individual-Based Dynamic Model

BACKGROUND: Despite widespread immunization programs, a clear increase in pertussis incidence is apparent in many developed countries during the last decades. Consequently, additional immunization strategies are considered to reduce the burden of disease. The aim of this study is to design an individual-based stochastic dynamic framework to model pertussis transmission in the population in order to predict the epidemiologic and economic consequences of the implementation of universal booster vaccination programs. Using this framework, we estimate the cost-effectiveness of universal adolescent pertussis booster vaccination at the age of 12 years in the Netherlands. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We designed a discrete event simulation (DES) model to predict the epidemiological and economic consequences of implementing universal adolescent booster vaccination. We used national age-specific notification data over the period 1996-2000--corrected for underreporting--to calibrate the model assuming a steady state situation. Subsequently, booster vaccination was introduced. Input parameters of the model were derived from literature, national data sources (e.g. costing data, incidence and hospitalization data) and expert opinions. As there is no consensus on the duration of immunity acquired by natural infection, we considered two scenarios for this duration of protection (i.e. 8 and 15 years). In both scenarios, total pertussis incidence decreased as a result of adolescent vaccination. From a societal perspective, the cost-effectiveness was estimated at €4418/QALY (range: 3205-6364 € per QALY) and €6371/QALY (range: 4139-9549 € per QALY) for the 8- and 15-year protection scenarios, respectively. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the outcomes are most sensitive to the quality of life weights used for pertussis disease. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: To our knowledge we designed the first individual-based dynamic framework to model pertussis transmission in the population. This study indicates that adolescent pertussis vaccination is likely to be a cost-effective intervention for The Netherlands. The model is suited to investigate further pertussis booster vaccination strategies

The incidence of Bordetella pertussis infections estimated in the population from a combination of serological surveys.

OBJECTIVES: Bordetella pertussis circulates even in highly vaccinated populations. There is a considerable amount of infection in adults. For designing more effective vaccination schedules it is important to quantify the age-dependent relation between the number of notified cases and the number of infections. METHODS: We used a statistical relationship between the time since infection and the IgG antibody titers against pertussis toxin, derived from a longitudinal data set, to estimate time since infection for all individuals in a cross-sectional population-based study (1995-1996) based on their titers. Age-specific incidence of infection with B. pertussis was calculated and compared with the age-distribution of notified cases of pertussis in 1994-1996. RESULTS: Estimated incidence of infection was 6.6% per year for 3-79-year olds, annual incidence of notified cases 0.01%. Estimated age-specific incidence of infection was lowest for 3-4-year olds (3.3%) and increased gradually up to the age of 20-24 years (10.8%). The number of notified cases was highest for 3-9-year olds. CONCLUSIONS: In the Dutch population B. pertussis infections occur more frequently and in elder age-categories then suggested by notifications. Mathematical modeling could explore what booster vaccination strategies are most effective in reducing severe disease among not (completely) vaccinated infants

Sensitivity of three serum antibody tests in a large outbreak of Legionnaires' disease in the Netherlands.

In 1999, an outbreak involving 188 patients with Legionnaires' disease (LD) occurred at a flower show in the Netherlands. This large outbreak provided the opportunity to evaluate serum antibody tests to assay anti-Legionella pneumophila, since limited data are available on the sensitivity of these tests. The sensitivities of an indirect serotype 1-6 immunofluorescence antibody test (IFAT), a rapid micro-agglutination test (RMAT) IgM serotype 1 antibody assay, and an ELISA to detect IgM and IgG serotype 1-7 antibodies, were evaluated using serum samples from LD patients related to the 1999 outbreak. Sensitivity was calculated using positive culture and/or a positive urinary antigen test as the gold standard in outbreak-related patients with radiographically confirmed pneumonia who fulfilled the epidemiological criteria. The IFAT, RMAT and ELISA showed sensitivities of 61, 44 and 64%, respectively. The sensitivity of the three tests combined was 67%. In epidemic situations, however, high standing titres may be included in the laboratory evidence of LD cases. In the study population, high standing titres were found in 16% of cases. If the presence of high standing antibody titres was added to the criteria of a positive test, the sensitivities of IFAT, RMAT and ELISA were 86, 48 and 75%, respectively. The sensitivity was 91% for all tests combined. The higher sensitivity for the combined use of tests is offset by a reduction in specificity to 97.6%. The results of this study indicate that using a combination of serologic tests in pneumonia patients suspected to have LD does not substantially improve sensitivity. The results suggest that in the microbiological diagnosis of LD, both IFAT and ELISA are reasonably sensitive assays. In an epidemic situation, both tests are highly sensitive, the IFAT more so than the ELISA

Prevalence (%) of coughing symptoms in the past year according to age in individuals with IgG-Ptx concentration≥62.5 EU/ml in 1995-96 and in 2006-07.

<p>Prevalence (%) of coughing symptoms in the past year according to age in individuals with IgG-Ptx concentration≥62.5 EU/ml in 1995-96 and in 2006-07.</p

Age-specific seroprevalence of IgG-Ptx concentrations in children 0–9 years of age in 1995-96 (upper figure) and in 2006-07 (lower figure).

<p>Note: on the x-axis the age-group, number tested and in brackets the percentage targeted by the acellular vaccine are indicated. In 2006-07 children below 4 years of age could have been primed with either whole-cell or acellular vaccine in infancy (nationwide coverage circa 96%), and children 4–9 years of age could have been primed with whole-cell vaccine and may have received a preschool booster with acellular vaccine (nationwide coverage circa 90%).</p

Incidence per 100,000 population of reported pertussis cases in the Netherlands in 1993–2007, for 0-2-year-olds and for all ages.

<p>Incidence per 100,000 population of reported pertussis cases in the Netherlands in 1993–2007, for 0-2-year-olds and for all ages.</p

Risk factors for an IgG-Ptx concentration >62.5 EU/ml in individuals >9 years in 2006-07 (n = 5830).^*

<p>*for 179 persons (3%) data on one or more variables was missing.</p><p>**in children below 14 years the mothers highest educational level was asked; low  =  no education or primary education, middle =  junior technical school, lower general or intermediate vocational secondary education, high =  higher vocational or higher general secondary education, pre-university or university education.</p