Seasonality and stochastic trends in German consumption and income, 1960.1- 1987.4

The quarterly time series of German consumption and income are analyzed with respect to seasonality and stochastic trends. It emerges that both variables can be appropriately described by a periodically integrated autoregression. An implication is that the stochastic trend and the seasonal fluctuations are not independent for each of the univariate series. In order to test for cointegration across the two series, we propose several methods which take account of the relationship between seasons and trends in the univariate series. Some of these methods boil down to extracting the stochastic trend from the univariate series in a first step and to relating these trends using cointegration techniques in a second step. Another method is an extension of the Johansen cointegration testing approach to periodic vector autoregressions. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the empirical performance of the various methods. The main empirical result is that only in the first quarter there seems to be cointegration between German consumption and income

Echinoderms have bilateral tendencies

Echinoderms take many forms of symmetry. Pentameral symmetry is the major form and the other forms are derived from it. However, the ancestors of echinoderms, which originated from Cambrian period, were believed to be bilaterians. Echinoderm larvae are bilateral during their early development. During embryonic development of starfish and sea urchins, the position and the developmental sequence of each arm are fixed, implying an auxological anterior/posterior axis. Starfish also possess the Hox gene cluster, which controls symmetrical development. Overall, echinoderms are thought to have a bilateral developmental mechanism and process. In this article, we focused on adult starfish behaviors to corroborate its bilateral tendency. We weighed their central disk and each arm to measure the position of the center of gravity. We then studied their turning-over behavior, crawling behavior and fleeing behavior statistically to obtain the center of frequency of each behavior. By joining the center of gravity and each center of frequency, we obtained three behavioral symmetric planes. These behavioral bilateral tendencies might be related to the A/P axis during the embryonic development of the starfish. It is very likely that the adult starfish is, to some extent, bilaterian because it displays some bilateral propensity and has a definite behavioral symmetric plane. The remainder of bilateral symmetry may have benefited echinoderms during their evolution from the Cambrian period to the present

Making robust policy decision using global biodiversity indicators

In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change

Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet theyare inevitablyassociated withuncertainty.Identifying,quantifying,andcommunicatingthisuncertaintyis keytobothevaluatingtherisk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. Wereview howuncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employan approach developedin climatemodelling by breaking uncertainty down into(i) structural (model) uncertainty,(ii) initialization and internalvariabilityuncertainty,(iii)parametricuncertainty,and(iv)scenariouncertainty.Foreachuncertaintytype,wethenexaminethecurrent state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gainsontheseasonal-to-decadaltime-scale.Weconcludethatallpartsofmarinesciencecouldbenefitfromagreaterexchangeofideas,particularly concerningsuchauniversalproblemsuchasthetreatmentofuncertainty.Finally,marinescienceshouldstrivetoreachthepointwherescenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections

Cavity Induced Interfacing of Atoms and Light

This chapter introduces cavity-based light-matter quantum interfaces, with a single atom or ion in strong coupling to a high-finesse optical cavity. We discuss the deterministic generation of indistinguishable single photons from these systems; the atom-photon entanglement intractably linked to this process; and the information encoding using spatio-temporal modes within these photons. Furthermore, we show how to establish a time-reversal of the aforementioned emission process to use a coupled atom-cavity system as a quantum memory. Along the line, we also discuss the performance and characterisation of cavity photons in elementary linear-optics arrangements with single beam splitters for quantum-homodyne measurements.Comment: to appear as a book chapter in a compilation "Engineering the Atom-Photon Interaction" published by Springer in 2015, edited by A. Predojevic and M. W. Mitchel

Intuitive and Informal Knowledge in Preschoolers’ Development of Probabilistic Thinking

Preschoolers develop a wide range of mathematical informal knowledge and intuitive thinking before they enter formal, goal-oriented education. In their everyday activities young children get engaged with situations that enhance them to develop skills, concepts, strategies, representations, attitudes, constructs and operations concerning a wide range of mathematical notions. Recently there is scientific interest in linking children’s informal and formal knowledge in order to provide them with opportunities to avoid biases aiming at formulating, perceiving, reflecting on and exercising probabilistic notions. The current study investigates preschoolers’ (N=90) intuitive understanding of the likelihood of events in a probabilistic task with spinners. Participants, at the age of 4 to 6, are tested on their predictions of the most probable outcome prior to and after an instructive session of reasoning. The probabilistic task, based on constructivist principles, includes methodological alterations concerning the sample space and the themes of the stimuli. Educational implications are further discussed under the general point of view that in order to link informal to formal mathematical learning in preschool classroom, the subject content and the cognitive capacity of children are important to match

Light MSSM Higgs boson mass to three-loop accuracy

The light CP even Higgs boson mass, Mh, is calculated to three-loop accuracy within the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). The result is expressed in terms of DRbar parameters and implemented in the computer program H3m. The calculation is based on the proper approximations and their combination in various regions of the parameter space. The three-loop effects to Mh are typically of the order of a few hundred MeV and opposite in sign to the two-loop corrections. The remaining theory uncertainty due to higher order perturbative corrections is estimated to be less than 1 GeV.Comment: 39 pages, 13 figures. v2: minor changes, typos fixe

Protocol for the Smoking, Nicotine and Pregnancy (SNAP) trial: double-blind, placebo-randomised, controlled trial of nicotine replacement therapy in pregnancy

Background: Smoking in pregnancy remains a public health challenge. Nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) is effective for smoking cessation in non-pregnant people, but because women metabolise nicotine and cotinine much faster in pregnancy, it is unclear whether this will be effective for smoking cessation in pregnancy. The NHS Health Technology Assessment Programme (HTA)-funded smoking, nicotine and pregnancy ( SNAP) trial will investigate whether or not nicotine replacement therapy ( NRT) is effective, cost-effective and safe when used for smoking cessation by pregnant women. Methods/Design: Over two years, in 5 trial centres, 1050 pregnant women who are between 12 and 24 weeks pregnant will be randomised as they attend hospital for ante-natal ultrasound scans. Women will receive either nicotine or placebo transdermal patches with behavioural support. The primary outcome measure is biochemically-validated, self-reported, prolonged and total abstinence from smoking between a quit date ( defined before randomisation and set within two weeks of this) and delivery. At six months after childbirth self-reported maternal smoking status will be ascertained and two years after childbirth, self-reported maternal smoking status and the behaviour, cognitive development and respiratory symptoms of children born in the trial will be compared in both groups. Discussion: This trial is designed to ascertain whether or not standard doses of NRT ( as transdermal patches) are effective and safe when used for smoking cessation during pregnancy

The SOS Pilot Study: a RCT of routine oxygen supplementation early after acute stroke—effect on recovery of neurological function at one week

Mild hypoxia is common after stroke and associated with poor long-term outcome. Oxygen supplementation could prevent hypoxia and improve recovery. A previous study of routine oxygen supplementation showed no significant benefit at 7 and 12 months. This pilot study reports the effects of routine oxygen supplementation for 72 hours on oxygen saturation and neurological outcomes at 1 week after a stroke