FUTURES-BASED PRICE FORECASTS FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS AND BUSINESSES

The forecasting accuracy of five competing naïve and futures-based localized cash price forecasts is determined. The third-week's price each month from 1987-96 is forecasted from several vantage points. Commodities examine include those relevant to Midwest producers: the major grains, slaughter steers, slaughter hogs, several classes of feeder cattle, cull cows, and sows. Relative forecasting accuracy across forecast method is compared using regression models of forecast error. The traditional forecast method deferred futures plus historical basis has the greatest accuracy- even for cull cows. Adding complexity to forecasts, such as including regression models to capture nonlinear bases or biases in futures markets, does not improve accuracy.Demand and Price Analysis,

Yellow Supergiants and Post-Red Supergiant Evolution in the Large Magellanic Cloud

The empirical evidence for an upper mass limit for the red supergiant (RSG) progenitors of the Type II-P SNe at about 18 Msun, raises questions about the fate of the most luminous, most massive RSGs. These stars may evolve back to warmer temperatures to end their lives as hotter stars or collapse directly to black holes. The yellow hypergiants, many with extensive circumstellar dust and high mass loss, are excellent candidates for post-RSG evolution. We have identified six high luminosity yellow supergiants (YSGs) in the LMC with circumstellar dust including two of the FYPS (Dorn et al, 2022). We discuss their SEDs, mass lost and mass loss rates. Together with three additional FYPS, these nine stars are about 1/3 of the YSGs above 10^5 Lsun. We conclude that the high luminosity YSGs with surface pulsations and circumstellar dust, distinct from other YSGs, are candidates for post-RSG evolution in the LMC.Comment: To appear in the Astronomical Journa

Dried Distillers Grains Supplementation of Calves Grazing Irrigated Corn Residue

Steer calves grazing irrigated corn residue received supplementation of dried distillers grains plus solubles (DGS) at 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, or 1.1% of body weight. Steers were individually supplemented daily through Calan gates. Daily gain improved linearly (0.77 lb/head/day to 2.21 lb/head/day) with increasing supplementation (1.5 lb/day to 7 lb/day). Supplementing DGS to calves grazing corn residue increased gain during the winter period

Understanding soft error sensitivity of deep learning models and frameworks through checkpoint alteration

The convergence of artificial intelligence, high-performance computing (HPC), and data science brings unique opportunities for marked advance discoveries and that leverage synergies across scientific domains. Recently, deep learning (DL) models have been successfully applied to a wide spectrum of fields, from social network analysis to climate modeling. Such advances greatly benefit from already available HPC infrastructure, mainly GPU-enabled supercomputers. However, those powerful computing systems are exposed to failures, particularly silent data corruption (SDC) in which bit-flips occur without the program crashing. Consequently, exploring the impact of SDCs in DL models is vital for maintaining progress in many scientific domains. This paper uses a distinctive methodology to inject faults into training phases of DL models. We use checkpoint file alteration to study the effect of having bit-flips in different places of a model and at different moments of the training. Our strategy is general enough to allow the analysis of any combination of DL model and framework—so long as they produce a Hierarchical Data Format 5 checkpoint file. The experimental results confirm that popular DL models are often able to absorb dozens of bit-flips with a minimal impact on accuracy convergencePeer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Evaluation of Changes in Nutritional Quality of Corn Residue Over Time

Irrigated corn residue was sampled across time in order to determine changes in quality and proportion of corn residue as the plant dried and was exposed to effects of weathering. Corn plants from two hybrids were planted on two different planting dates and harvested at periodic intervals from August 2012 to December 2012. Proportions of stem, blade/sheath, husk/shank, and cob made up smaller components of total plant DM as it matured, with the largest relative reduction occurring in the blade/sheath or stem. Hybrid impacted TDN values primarily because the 119 day hybrid was less mature at the early sampling dates

The Magnetic Field Geometry in M82 and Cen A

Imaging polarimetry at 1.65 and 2.2 $\mu$m is presented for the classic starburst galaxy M82 and the advanced merger system Cen A. Polarimetry at near IR wavelengths allows the magnetic field geometry in galaxies to be probed much deeper into dusty regions than optical polarimetry. In M82, the magnetic field throughout the nucleus has a polar geometry, presumably due to the massive vertical flow that is a result of the intense star formation there. Fully two thirds of the line of sight dust through to the center of M82 contains a vertical magnetic field. In Cen A, the prominent dust lane shows a normal planar field geometry. There is no indication of significant disturbance in the field geometry in the dust lane and the polarization strength is near normal for the amount of extinction. Either the magnetic field geometry was well maintained during the merger, or it reestablished itself very easily

Ethnicity as a Moderator of Treatment Effects on Parent-Child Interaction for Children With ADHD

Objective: To examine ethnic differences in observed parenting and child behavior and the moderating effects of ethnicity on the relationship between treatment and parent and child behavior. Method: Observations of 508 children with ADHD (ages 7–9) and their caregivers, collected during the Multimodal Treatment Study of ADHD, were analyzed using univariate and mixed-model ANOVAs. Results: Although baseline parenting practices differed by ethnic group, ethnicity did not moderate the relationship between treatment and either parenting or child behavior. Conclusion: Consistent with data from normative samples, parents of children with ADHD differed by ethnicity in their utilization of certain parenting strategies. However, different ethnic groups did not differ on benefit received from treatments for ADHD, measured by parent and child behavior. Although ethnicity did not emerge as a moderator, ethnic minority family engagement in treatment may be increased by recognizing different parenting strategies and modifying interventions accordingly. (J. of Att. Dis. 2010; 13(6) 592-600

O/IR Polarimetry for the 2010 Decade (GAN): Science at the Edge, Sharp Tools for All

Science opportunities and recommendations concerning optical/infrared polarimetry for the upcoming decade in the field of Galactic science. Community-based White Paper to Astro2010 in response to the call for such papers.Comment: White Paper to the Galactic Neighborhood (GAN) Science Frontiers Panel of the Astro2010 Decadal Surve

Outflows from Luminous YSOs: An Infrared Polarimetric Study

e present Near Infrared imaging polarimetry of three regions of massive star formation, G$192.16 - 3.82$, Cepheus A, and W42. In W42 we have discovered a new bipolar nebula located at the far side of the HII region behind the visible cluster of exciting stars. The axis of this new nebula is aligned with the magnetic field threading the entire cluster region. Polarization in the bipolar outflow nebulosity associated with G192.16 is consistent with a single illuminating source, too faint to be detected at 2 \micron. Polarization in the reflection nebulosity associated with Ceph A requires more than one illuminating source, although HW2 is clearly dominant. In all three objects, the magnetic field in the outflow at distances greater than $\sim 0.2$ pc is radial. In G192.16 the magnetic field geometry closer than $\sim 0.2$ pc to the embedded star appears chaotic. For G192.16 the outflow is not aligned with the surrounding magnetic field, which lies in the galactic plane. In Ceph A, the outflow axis could be interpreted as being aligned with the galactic plane, but the magnetic field threading the region is not. Only in the case of W42 is the magnetic field threading the HII region aligned with the mean field in the surrounding galactic plane.Comment: 1 LaTeX file, 10 figure