USING BUSINESS MANAGEMENT GAMES AS RESEARCH TOOLS IN FOOD RETAILING - A CASE STUDY

Agribusiness,

An Economic History of Fertility in the U.S.: 1826-1960

In this paper, we use data from the US census to document the history of the relationship between fertility choice and key economic indicators at the individual level for women born between 1826 and 1960. We find that this data suggests several new facts that should be useful for researchers trying to model fertility. (1) The reduction in fertility known as the Demographic Transition (or the Fertility Transition) seems to be much sharper based on cohort fertility measures compared to usual measures like Total Fertility Rate; (2) The baby boom was not quite as large as is suggested by some previous work; (3) We find a strong negative relationship between income and fertility for all cohorts and estimate an overall income elasticity of about -0.38 for the period; (4) We also find systematic deviations from a time invariant, isoelastic, relationship between income and fertility. The most interesting of these is an increase in the income elasticity of demand for children for the 1876-1880 to 1906-1910 birth cohorts. This implies an increased spread in fertility by income which was followed by a dramatic compression.

Complements versus Substitutes and Trends in Fertility Choice in Dynastic Models

The Barro-Becker model is a simple intuitive model of fertility choice. In its original formulation, however, it has not been very successful at reproducing the changes in fertility choice in response to decreased mortality and increased income growth that demographers have emphasized in explaining the demographic transition. In this paper we show that this is due to an implicit assumption that number and utility of children are complements, which is a byproduct of the high intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) typically assumed in the fertility literature. We show that, not only is this assumption not necessary, but both the qualitative and quantitative properties of the model in terms of fertility choice change dramatically when substitutability and high curvature are assumed. To do so, we first derive analytical comparative statics and perform quantitative experiments. We find that if IES is less than one, model predictions of changes in fertility amount to about two-thirds of those observed in U.S. data since 1800. There are two major sources to these predicted changes, the increase in the growth rate of productivity which accounts for about 90 percent of the predicted fall in fertility before 1880, and changes in mortality which account for 90 percent of the predicted change from 1880 to 1950.

Efficiency with Endogenous Population Growth

In this paper, we generalize the notion of Pareto-efficiency to make it applicable to environments with endogenous populations. Two different efficiency concepts are proposed, P-efficiency and A-efficiency. The two concepts differ in how they treat people that are not born. We show how these concepts relate to the notion of Pareto efficiency when fertility is exogenous. We then prove versions of the first welfare theorem assuming that decision making is efficient within the dynasty. Finally, we give two sets of sufficient conditions for non-cooperative equilibria of family decision problems to be efficient. These include the Barro and Becker model as a special casePareto efficiency, endogenous fertility, first welfare theorem

A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth

Our aim in this paper is to exposit a convex model of equilibrium growth. The model is strictly in the Solow tradition. The model has two features which distinguish it from most other work on the subject. These are, first, that the model is convex on the technological side and, eecond, that fixed fatten are explicitly included. The difference between our model and the standard single sector growth model lies in the fact that the marginal product of capital does not converge to zero as the level of inputs go to infinity. Existence and characterization results are provided along with some preliminary analyses of taxation and international trade policies. It is shown that the long-run growth rate in per capita consumption depends, in the natural way, on the parameters describing tastes and technology. Finally, it is shown that some policies have growth effects while others affect only levels. It is demonstrated that in a free trade equilibrium with taxation national growth rates of consumption and output need not converge.

Determination of the oxidative stability of perfluoropolyalkyl ethers and correlation with chemical structure

The oxidative stabilities of several perfluoropolyalkyl ethers (PFPAE) with related chemical structures were determined by thermal gravimetric analysis and correlated with their chemical structures. These results show that oxidative stability increases as the number of difluoroformal groups decreases and as trifluoromethyl substituents are added. They are also consistent with a recently proposed intramolecular disproportionation reaction mechanism involving coordination of successive ether oxygens to a Lewis acid. Since polytetrafluoroethylene contains no oxygen, it provides an indication of the upper limit to oxidative stability of PFPAE fluids. These results also show that oxidative decomposition of PFPAE fluids requires the presence of an active metal as well as air. Consequently, it may be possible to minimize decomposition and thus improve oxidative stability by passivating reactive metal surfaces

Determination of the thermal stability of perfluoroalkylethers

The thermal decomposition temperatures of several commercial and custom synthesized perfluoroalkylether fluids were determined with a computerized tensimeter. In general, the decomposition temperatures of the commercial fluids were all similar and significantly higher than those for custom synthesized fluids. Correlation of the decomposition temperatures with the molecular structures of the primary components of the commercial fluids revealed that the stability of the fluids is not affected by intrinsic factors such as carbon chain length, branching, or cumulated difluoroformal groups. Instead, correlation with extrinsic factors revealed that the stability may be limited by the presence of small quantities of thermally unstable material and/or chlorine-containing material arising from the use of chlorine-containing solvents during synthesis. Finally, correlation of decomposition temperatures with molecular weights for Demnum and Krytox fluids supports a chain cleavage reaction mechanism for Demnum fluids and an unzipping reaction mechanism for Krytox fluids

Volatile Policy and Private Information: The Case of Monetary Policy

In this paper we study how volatility in monetary policy affects economic performance in the presence of endogenously chosen information structures. To isolate the effects produced by the interaction of uncertainty in monetary policy and (possibly) asymmetric information, we consider a model in which in the absence of either one of these features the equilibrium would be efficient. The equilibria that we find, with volatility and asymmetry of information, are inefficient for two reasons: first, in some cases, economic agents fail to trade, even though it is always efficient to do so; second, to capture the rents associated with being informed, agents spend resources acquiring socially useless information. Thus, in addition to the more standard effects of volatile inflation, our model calls attention to two types of costs associated with monetary uncertainty: the cost of not trading, and the cost of allocating resources to wasteful activities. The model implies that if monetary policy is not volatile all agents are symmetrically informed and hence, the outcome is efficient. Alternatively, making policy transparent,' i.e guaranteeing that all agents share the same information, serves the same purpose.