Testing the Role of Technical Information in Public Risk Perception

It is widely believed that more detail about health effects and likely exposure routes is apt to reduce citizens\u27 concerns about low-probability Risks. The authors\u27 study suggests that providing such detail may not be as useful as, e.g., addressing public concerns and keeping citizens current on officials\u27 actions

GIS habitat analysis for lesser prairie-chickens in southeastern New Mexico

BACKGROUND: We conducted Geographic Information System (GIS) habitat analyses for lesser prairie-chicken (LPCH, Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) conservation planning. The 876,799 ha study area included most of the occupied habitat for the LPCH in New Mexico. The objectives were to identify and quantify: 1. suitable LPCH habitat in New Mexico, 2. conversion of native habitats, 3. potential for habitat restoration, and 4. unsuitable habitat available for oil and gas activities. RESULTS: We found 16% of suitable habitat (6% of the study area) distributed in 13 patches of at least 3,200 ha and 11% of suitable habitat (4% of the study area) distributed in four patches over 7,238 ha. The area converted from native vegetation types comprised 17% of the study area. Ninety-five percent of agricultural conversion occurred on private lands in the northeastern corner of the study area. Most known herbicide-related conversions (82%) occurred in rangelands in the western part of the study area, on lands managed primarily by the US Bureau of Land Management (BLM). We identified 88,190 ha (10% of the study area) of habitats with reasonable restoration potential. Sixty-two percent of the primary population area (PPA) contained occupied, suitable, or potentially suitable habitat, leaving 38% that could be considered for oil and gas development. CONCLUSION: Although suitable LPCH habitat appears at first glance to be abundant in southeastern New Mexico, only a fraction of apparently suitable vegetation types constitute quality habitat. However, we identified habitat patches that could be restored through mesquite control or shin-oak reintroduction. The analysis also identified areas of unsuitable habitat with low restoration potential that could be targeted for oil and gas exploration, in lieu of occupied, high-quality habitats. Used in combination with GIS analysis and current LPCH population data, the habitat map represents a powerful conservation and management tool

Relationship between cardiovascular risk and lipid testing in one health care system: a retrospective cohort study.

BackgroundThe US Preventive Services Taskforce (USPSTF) recommends routine lipid screening beginning age 35 for men [1]. For women age 20 and older, as well as men age 20-34, screening is recommended if cardiovascular risk factors are present. Prior research has focused on underutilization but not overuse of lipid testing. The objective is to document over- and under-use of lipid testing in an insured population of persons at low, moderate and high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk for persons not already on statins.MethodsThe study is a retrospective cohort study that included all adults without prior CVD who were continuously enrolled in a large integrated healthcare system from 2005 to 2010. Measures included lipid test frequency extracted from administrative data and Framingham cardiovascular risk equations applied using electronic medical record data. Five year lipid testing patterns were examined by age, sex and CVD risk. Generalized linear models were used to estimate the relative risk for over testing associated with patient characteristics.ResultsAmong males and females for whom testing is not recommended, 35.8 % and 61.5 % received at least one lipid test in the prior 5 years and 8.4 % and 24.4 % had two or more. Over-testing was associated with age, race, comorbidity, primary care use and neighborhood income. Among individuals at moderate and high-risk (not already treated with statins) and for whom screening is recommended, between 21.4 % and 25.1 % of individuals received no screening in the prior 5 years.ConclusionsBased on USPSTF lipid screening recommendations, this study documents substantial over-testing among individuals with low CVD risk and under-testing among individuals with moderate to high-risk not already on statins. Opportunity exists to better focus lipid screening efforts appropriate to CVD risk

Letters

Barren Dessert?, A Dissenter Dissent

Thermal Analyses of the Los Angeles Smog Aerosol

It has been shown by earlier studies on the formation of the Los Angeles smog aerosol, that a significant fraction of the particulate matter in the visible size range is made by secondary gas-particle conversion processes, and that it consists mainly of liquid matter. In this study the volatility was studied quantitatively by heating the smog aerosol up to 250°C and simultaneously measuring the scattering coefficient using a nephelometer and the change of size distribution by an optical counter. The thermal analyses revealed that 50–80% of the submicron aerosol mass is volatile at 220°C. Inspection of the shapes of thermo-nephelograms (bscat vs temperature) also revealed that photochemically formed aerosols have distinctly different thermo-nephelograms than those obtained on humid “hazy” days. Thus it is suggested that thermal analyses may at least in some instances provide the means of on-line monitoring the origin of the ambient aerosol

Simulating The Doppler-Free Fluorescence Spectrum For The Potassium D1 Transitions

Radiation theory (absorption, spontaneous emission, and stimulated emission) is applied to Potassium (39K and 41K) to examine details of the D1 lines, Figure 1, in the near IR at 770 nm. When examining the resonance fluorescence from two counter-propagation laser beams in a K cell, Figure 2, three prominent “Doppler-free” features—dips at the D1a and D1b resonances and spikes at their crossover frequencies—stand out superposed on the fluorescence background. They are examined with a detailed simulation, Figures 3 and 4, and compared to observations, Figure 5. Parametric studies of the Doppler-free features, Figures 6–8, indicate how to maximize their prominence, and thus their importance as frequency references for laboratory and atmospheric observations

Public perceptions of expert disagreement: Bias and incompetence or a complex and random world?

30 page PDFExpert disputes can present laypeople with several challenges including trying to understand why such disputes occur. In an online survey of the U.S. public, we used a psychometric approach to elicit perceptions of expert disputes for 56 forecasts sampled from seven domains (climate change, crime, economics, environment, health, politics, terrorism). People with low education, or with low self-reported knowledge of the topic, were most likely to attribute expert disputes to expert incompetence. People with higher self-reported knowledge tended to attribute disputes to expert bias due to financial or ideological reasons. The more highly educated and cognitively able were most likely to attribute disputes to natural factors, such as the irreducible complexity and randomness of the phenomenon. We highlight several important implications of these results for scientists and risk managers and argue for further research on how people perceive and grapple with expert disputes.We would like to acknowledge the generous support of the National Science Foundation: This material is based upon work supported by NSF under Grant Nos. #1231231 (Robin Gregory, PI; Nathan Dieckmann co-PI) and #0925008 (Nathan Dieckmann, PI) to Decision Research. All views expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone