Development of a Hard X-Ray Polarimeter for Astrophysics

We have been developing a Compton scatter polarimeter for measuring the linear polarization of hard X-rays (100-300 keV) from astrophysical sources. A laboratory prototype polarimeter has been used to successfully demonstrate the reliability of our Monte Carlo simulation code and to demonstrate our ability to generate a polarized photon source in the lab. Our design concept places a self-containedpolarimeter module on the front-end of a a 5-inch position sensitive PMT (PSPMT). We are currently working on the fabrication of a science model based on this PSPMT concept. Although the emphasis of our development effort is towards measuring hard X-rays from solar flares, our design has the advantage that it is sensitive over a rather large field-of-view (\u3e1 steradian), a feature that makes it especially attractive for γ-ray burst studie

Studying Effects of Primary Care Physicians and Patients on the Trade-Off Between Charges for Primary Care and Specialty Care Using a Hierarchical Multivariate Two-Part Model

Objective. To examine effects of primary care physicians (PCPs) and patients on the association between charges for primary care and specialty care in a point-of-service (POS) health plan. Data Source. Claims from 1996 for 3,308 adult male POS plan members, each of whom was assigned to one of the 50 family practitioner-PCPs with the largest POS plan member-loads. Study Design. A hierarchical multivariate two-part model was fitted using a Gibbs sampler to estimate PCPs\u27 effects on patients\u27 annual charges for two types of services, primary care and specialty care, the associations among PCPs\u27 effects, and within-patient associations between charges for the two services. Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACGs) were used to adjust for case-mix. Principal Findings. PCPs with higher case-mix adjusted rates of specialist use were less likely to see their patients at least once during the year (estimated correlation: –.40; 95% CI: –.71, –.008) and provided fewer services to patients that they saw (estimated correlation: –.53; 95% CI: –.77, –.21). Ten of 11 PCPs whose case-mix adjusted effects on primary care charges were significantly less than or greater than zero (p \u3c .05) had estimated, case-mix adjusted effects on specialty care charges that were of opposite sign (but not significantly different than zero). After adjustment for ACG and PCP effects, the within-patient, estimated odds ratio for any use of primary care given any use of specialty care was .57 (95% CI: .45, .73). Conclusions. PCPs and patients contributed independently to a trade-off between utilization of primary care and specialty care. The trade-off appeared to partially offset significant differences in the amount of care provided by PCPs. These findings were possible because we employed a hierarchical multivariate model rather than separate univariate models

Development of a hard X-ray polarimeter for astrophysics

We have been developing a Compton scatter polarimeter for measuring the linear polarization of hard X-rays (100-300 keV) from astrophysical sources. A laboratory prototype polarimeter has been used to successfully demonstrate the reliability of our Monte Carlo simulation code and to demonstrate our ability to generate a polarized photon source in the lab. Our design concept places a self-containedpolarimeter module on the front-end of a a 5-inch position sensitive PMT (PSPMT). We are currently working on the fabrication of a science model based on this PSPMT concept. Although the emphasis of our development effort is towards measuring hard X-rays from solar flares, our design has the advantage that it is sensitive over a rather large field-of-view (\u3e1 steradian), a feature that makes it especially attractive for γ-ray burst studies

A Hierarchical Multivariate Two-Part Model for Profiling Providers\u27 Effects on Healthcare Charges

Procedures for analyzing and comparing healthcare providers\u27 effects on health services delivery and outcomes have been referred to as provider profiling. In a typical profiling procedure, patient-level responses are measured for clusters of patients treated by providers that in turn, can be regarded as statistically exchangeable. Thus, a hierarchical model naturally represents the structure of the data. When provider effects on multiple responses are profiled, a multivariate model rather than a series of univariate models, can capture associations among responses at both the provider and patient levels. When responses are in the form of charges for healthcare services and sampled patients include non-users of services, charge variables are a mix of zeros and highly-skewed positive values that present a modeling challenge. For analysis of regressor effects on charges for a single service, a frequently used approach is a two-part model (Duan, Manning, Morris, and Newhouse 1983) that combines logistic or probit regression on any use of the service and linear regression on the log of positive charges given use of the service. Here, we extend the two-part model to the case of charges for multiple services, using a log-linear model and a general multivariate log-normal model, and employ the resultant multivariate two-part model as the within-provider component of a hierarchical model. The log-linear likelihood is reparameterized as proposed by Fitzmaurice and Laird (1993), so that regressor effects on any use of each service are marginal with respect to any use of other services. The general multivariate log-normal likelihood is constructed in such a way that variances of log of positive charges for each service are provider-specific but correlations between log of positive charges for different services are uniform across providers. A data augmentation step is included in the Gibbs sampler used to fit the hierarchical model, in order to accommodate the fact that values of log of positive charges are undefined for unused service. We apply this hierarchical, multivariate, two-part model to analyze the effects of primary care physicians on their patients\u27 annual charges for two services, primary care and specialty care. Along the way, we also demonstrate an approach for incorporating prior information about the effects of patient morbidity on response variables, to improve the accuracy of provider profiles that are based on patient samples of limited size

A hard X-ray solar flare polarimeter design based on scintillating fibers

We have developed a design for a Compton scatter polarimeter to measure the polarization of hard X-rays (50–300 keV) from solar flares. The modular design is based on an annular array of scintillating fibers coupled to a 5-inch position-sensitive PMT. Incident photons scatter from the fiber array into a small array of NaI detectors located at the center of the annulus. The location of the interactions in both the fiber array and in the NaI array can be used to measure the linear polarization of the incident flux. This compact design may be well-suited to a variety of astrophysical applications. An extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations has been performed to characterize this design

Differential expression of microRNA-206 and its target genes in pre-eclampsia

Objectives: Pre-eclampsia is a multi-system disease that significantly contributes to maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. In this study, we used a non-biased microarray approach to identify novel circulating miRNAs in maternal plasma that may be associated with pre-eclampsia. Methods: Plasma samples were obtained at 16 and 28 weeks of gestation from 18 women who later developed pre-eclampsia (cases) and 18 matched women with normotensive pregnancies (controls). We studied miRNA expression profiles in plasma and subsequently confirmed miRNA and target gene expression in placenta samples. Placental samples were obtained from an independent cohort of 19 women with pre-eclampsia matched with 19 women with normotensive pregnancies. Results: From the microarray, we identified 1 miRNA that was significantly differentially expressed between cases and controls at 16 weeks of gestation and 6 miRNAs that were significantly differentially expressed at 28 weeks. Following qPCR validation only one, miR-206, was found to be significantly increased in 28 week samples in women who later developed pre-eclampsia (1.4 fold change ± 0.2). The trend for increase in miR-206 expression was mirrored within placental tissue from women with pre-eclampsia. In parallel, IGF-1, a target gene of miR-206, was also found to be down-regulated (0.41 ± 0.04) in placental tissue from women with pre-eclampsia. miR-206 expression was also detectable in myometrium tissue and trophoblast cell lines. Conclusions: Our pilot study has identified miRNA-206 as a novel factor up-regulated in pre-eclampsia within the maternal circulation and in placental tissue

Evolution of Mass Outflow in Protostars

We have surveyed 84 Class 0, Class I, and flat-spectrum protostars in mid-infrared [Si II], [Fe II] and [S I] line emission, and 11 of these in far-infrared [O I] emission. We use the results to derive their mass outflow rates. Thereby we observe a strong correlation of mass outflow rates with bolometric luminosity, and with the inferred mass accretion rates of the central objects, which continues through the Class 0 range the trend observed in Class II young stellar objects. Along this trend from large to small mass-flow rates, the different classes of young stellar objects lie in the sequence Class 0 -- Class I/flat-spectrum -- Class II, indicating that the trend is an evolutionary sequence in which mass outflow and accretion rates decrease together with increasing age, while maintaining rough proportionality. The survey results include two which are key tests of magnetocentrifugal outflow-acceleration mechanisms: the distribution of the outflow/accretion branching ratio b, and limits on the distribution of outflow speeds. Neither rule out any of the three leading outflow-acceleration, angular-momentum-ejection mechanisms, but they provide some evidence that disk winds and accretion-powered stellar winds (APSWs) operate in many protostars. An upper edge observed in the branching-ratio distribution is consistent with the upper bound of b = 0.6 found in models of APSWs, and a large fraction (0.31) of the sample have branching ratio sufficiently small that only disk winds, launched on scales as large as several AU, have been demonstrated to account for them.Comment: Version submitted to ApJ: 36 pages, 3 tables, 8 figure

Modeling of Water Injection into a Vacuum

A loosely coupled two-phase vacuum water plume model has been developed. This model consists of a source flow model to describe the expansion of water vapor, and the Lagrangian equations of motion for particle trajectories. Gas/Particle interaction is modeled through the drag force induced by the relative velocities. Particles are assumed traveling along streamlines. The equations of motion are integrated to obtain particle velocity along the streamline. This model has been used to predict the mass flux in a 5 meter radius hemispherical domain resulting from the burst of a water jet of 1.5 mm in diameter, mass flow rate of 24.2 g/s, and stagnation pressure of 21.0 psia, which is the nominal Orbiter water dump condition. The result is compared with an empirical water plume model deduced from a video image of the STS-29 water dump. To further improve the model, work has begun to numerically simulate the bubble formation and bursting present in a liquid stream injected into a vacuum. The technique of smoothed particle hydrodynamics was used to formulate this simulation. A status and results of the on-going effort are presented and compared to results from the literature

Genomic risk scores and oral contraceptive-associated ischemic stroke risk: a call for collaboration

BackgroundOral contraceptives (OCs) are generally safe but vascular risk factors increase OC-associated ischemic stroke risk. We performed a case-control study to evaluate whether a genomic risk score for ischemic stroke modifies OC-associated ischemic stroke risk.MethodsThe Genetics of Early-Onset Stroke study includes 332 premenopausal women (136 arterial ischemic stroke cases and 196 controls) with data on estrogen-containing OC use within 30 days before the index event (for cases) or interview (for controls). Using a previously validated genetic risk score (metaGRS) for ischemic stroke based on 19 polygenic risk scores for stroke and stroke-associated risk factors, we stratified our combined case-control sample into tertiles of genomic risk. We evaluated the association between OC use and ischemic stroke within each tertile. We tested if the association between OC use and ischemic stroke depended on the genomic risk of stroke using logistic regression with an OC use × metaGRS interaction term. These analyses were performed with and without adjustment for smoking, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, and body mass index.ResultsAfter adjustment for vascular risk factors, the odds ratio of OC use was 3.2 (1.7–6.3) overall and increased from the lower, middle, and upper tertile of genomic risk from 1.6 (0.5–5.4) to 2.5 (0.08–8.2) to 13.7 (3.8–67.3) respectively, and a p-value for interaction of 0.001.ConclusionsOur results suggest that genomic profile may modify the OC-associated ischemic stroke risk. Larger studies are warranted to determine whether a genomic risk score could be clinically useful in reducing OC-associated ischemic stroke

The Promise of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public sectors. We argue that U.S. regulators should lower barriers to the creation and design of prediction markets by creating a safe harbor for certain types of small stakes markets. We believe our proposed change has the potential to stimulate innovation in the design and use of prediction markets throughout the economy, and in the process to provide information that will benefit the private sector and government alike.Technology and Industry