Benefit-Cost Analysis of FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grants

Mitigation ameliorates the impact of natural hazards on communities by reducing loss of life and injury, property and environmental damage, and social and economic disruption. The potential to reduce these losses brings many benefits, but every mitigation activity has a cost that must be considered in our world of limited resources. In principle benefit-cost analysis (BCA) can be used to assess a mitigation activity’s expected net benefits (discounted future benefits less discounted costs), but in practice this often proves difficult. This paper reports on a study that refined BCA methodologies and applied them to a national statistical sample of FEMA mitigation activities over a ten-year period for earthquake, flood, and wind hazards. The results indicate that the overall benefit-cost ratio for FEMA mitigation grants is about 4 to 1, though the ratio varies according to hazard and mitigation type.

Carpet-dust chemicals as measures of exposure: Implications of variability

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is increasing interest in using chemicals measured in carpet dust as indicators of chemical exposures. However, investigators have rarely sampled dust repeatedly from the same households and therefore little is known about the variability of chemical levels that exist within and between households in dust samples.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We analyzed 9 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, 6 polychlorinated biphenyls, and nicotine in 68 carpet-dust samples from 21 households in agricultural communities of Fresno County, California collected from 2003-2005. Chemical concentrations (ng per g dust) ranged from < 2-3,609 for 9 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, from < 1-150 for 6 polychlorinated biphenyls, and from < 20-7,776 for nicotine. We used random-effects models to estimate variance components for concentrations of each of these carpet-dust chemicals and calculated the variance ratio, λ, defined as the ratio of the within-household variance component to the between-household variance component. Subsequently, we used the variance ratios calculated from our data, to illustrate the potential effect of measurement error on the attenuation of odds ratios in hypothetical case-control studies. We found that the median value of the estimated variance ratios was 0.33 (range: 0.13-0.72). Correspondingly, in case-control studies of associations between these carpet-dust chemicals and disease, given the collection of only one measurement per household and a hypothetical odds ratio of 1.5, we expect that the observed odds ratios would range from 1.27 to 1.43. Moreover, for each of the chemicals analyzed, the collection of three repeated dust samples would limit the expected magnitude of odds ratio attenuation to less than 20%.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our findings suggest that attenuation bias should be relatively modest when using these semi-volatile carpet-dust chemicals as exposure surrogates in epidemiologic studies.</p

An Invitation to Higher Gauge Theory

In this easy introduction to higher gauge theory, we describe parallel transport for particles and strings in terms of 2-connections on 2-bundles. Just as ordinary gauge theory involves a gauge group, this generalization involves a gauge '2-group'. We focus on 6 examples. First, every abelian Lie group gives a Lie 2-group; the case of U(1) yields the theory of U(1) gerbes, which play an important role in string theory and multisymplectic geometry. Second, every group representation gives a Lie 2-group; the representation of the Lorentz group on 4d Minkowski spacetime gives the Poincar\'e 2-group, which leads to a spin foam model for Minkowski spacetime. Third, taking the adjoint representation of any Lie group on its own Lie algebra gives a 'tangent 2-group', which serves as a gauge 2-group in 4d BF theory, which has topological gravity as a special case. Fourth, every Lie group has an 'inner automorphism 2-group', which serves as the gauge group in 4d BF theory with cosmological constant term. Fifth, every Lie group has an 'automorphism 2-group', which plays an important role in the theory of nonabelian gerbes. And sixth, every compact simple Lie group gives a 'string 2-group'. We also touch upon higher structures such as the 'gravity 3-group' and the Lie 3-superalgebra that governs 11-dimensional supergravity.Comment: 60 pages, based on lectures at the 2nd School and Workshop on Quantum Gravity and Quantum Geometry at the 2009 Corfu Summer Institut

Functional Analysis of Cdc42 Residues Required for Guanine Nucleotide Exchange

Guanine nucleotide exchange factors (GEFs) directly engage small GTPases to facilitate the exchange of bound GDP for GTP, leading to GTPase activation. Several recent crystal structures of GEFs in complex with Rho family GTPases highlight the conserved interactions and conformational alterations necessary for catalyzing exchange. In the present study, functional roles were defined for specific residues within Cdc42 implicated by the crystal structures as important for physiological exchange of guanine nucleotides within Rho GTPases. In particular, this study highlights the paramount importance of the phosphate-binding loop and interactions with the magnesium co-factor as critical for proper regulation of RhoGEF-catalyzed exchange. Other conformational alterations of the GTPases affecting interactions with the sugar and base of guanine nucleotides are also important but are secondary. Of particular note, substitution of alanine for cysteine at position 18 of Cdc42 leads to a fast cycling phenotype for Cdc42 with heightened affinity for RhoGEFs and produces a dominant negative form of Cdc42 capable of inhibiting RhoGEFs both in vitro and in vivo

Radiation damage in the LHCb vertex locator

The LHCb Vertex Locator (VELO) is a silicon strip detector designed to reconstruct charged particle trajectories and vertices produced at the LHCb interaction region. During the first two years of data collection, the 84 VELO sensors have been exposed to a range of fluences up to a maximum value of approximately 45 × 1012 1 MeV neutron equivalent (1 MeV neq). At the operational sensor temperature of approximately −7 °C, the average rate of sensor current increase is 18 μA per fb−1, in excellent agreement with predictions. The silicon effective bandgap has been determined using current versus temperature scan data after irradiation, with an average value of Eg = 1.16±0.03±0.04 eV obtained. The first observation of n+-on-n sensor type inversion at the LHC has been made, occurring at a fluence of around 15 × 1012 of 1 MeV neq. The only n+-on-p sensors in use at the LHC have also been studied. With an initial fluence of approximately 3 × 1012 1 MeV neq, a decrease in the Effective Depletion Voltage (EDV) of around 25 V is observed. Following this initial decrease, the EDV increases at a comparable rate to the type inverted n+-on-n type sensors, with rates of (1.43±0.16) × 10−12 V/ 1 MeV neq and (1.35±0.25) × 10−12 V/ 1 MeV neq measured for n+-on-p and n+-on-n type sensors, respectively. A reduction in the charge collection efficiency due to an unexpected effect involving the second metal layer readout lines is observed

Multifunctional Roles for the PH Domain of Dbs in Regulating Rho GTPase Activation

Dbl family members are guanine nucleotide exchange factors specific for Rho guanosine triphosphatases (GTPases) and invariably possess tandem Dbl (DH) and pleckstrin homology (PH) domains. Dbs, a Dbl family member specific for Cdc42 and RhoA, exhibits transforming activity when overexpressed in NIH 3T3 mouse fibroblasts. In this study, the PH domain of Dbs was mutated to impair selectively either guanine nucleotide exchange or phosphoinositide binding in vitro and resulting physiological alterations were assessed. As anticipated, substitution of residues within the PH domain of Dbs integral to the interface with GTPases reduced nucleotide exchange and eliminated the ability of Dbs to transform NIH 3T3 cells. More interestingly, substitutions within the PH domain that prevent interaction with phosphoinositides yet do not alter in vitro activation of GTPases also do not transform NIH 3T3 cell and fail to activate RhoA in vivo despite proper subcellular localization. Therefore, the PH domain of Dbs serves multiple roles in the activation of GTPases and cannot be viewed as a simple membrane-anchoring device. In particular, the data suggest that binding of phosphoinositides to the PH domain within the context of membrane surfaces may direct orientations or conformations of the linked DH and PH domains to regulate GTPases activation

Spatial variation in the fine-structure constant -- new results from VLT/UVES

(abridged) We present a new analysis of a large sample of quasar absorption-line spectra obtained using UVES (the Ultraviolet and Visual Echelle Spectrograph) on the VLT (Very Large Telescope) in Chile. In the VLT sample (154 absorbers), we find evidence that alpha increases with increasing cosmological distance from Earth. However, as previously shown, the Keck sample (141 absorbers) provided evidence for a smaller alpha in the distant absorption clouds. Upon combining the samples an apparent variation of alpha across the sky emerges which is well represented by an angular dipole model pointing in the direction RA=(17.3 +/- 1.0) hr, dec. = (-61 +/- 10) deg, with amplitude (0.97 +0.22/-0.20) x 10^(-5). The dipole model is required at the 4.1 sigma statistical significance level over a simple monopole model where alpha is the same across the sky (but possibly different to the current laboratory value). The data sets reveal a number of remarkable consistencies: various data cuts are consistent and there is consistency in the overlap region of the Keck and VLT samples. Assuming a dipole-only (i.e. no-monopole) model whose amplitude grows proportionally with `lookback-time distance' (r=ct, where t is the lookback time), the amplitude is (1.1 +/- 0.2) x 10^(-6) GLyr^(-1) and the model is significant at the 4.2 sigma confidence level over the null model [Delta alpha]/alpha = 0). We apply robustness checks and demonstrate that the dipole effect does not originate from a small subset of the absorbers or spectra. We present an analysis of systematic effects, and are unable to identify any single systematic effect which can emulate the observed variation in alpha.Comment: 47 pages, 35 figures. Accepted for publication by Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. Please see http://astronomy.swin.edu.au/~mmurphy/pub.html for an ASCII version of table A1 and the full set of Voigt profile fits for appendix