Climate Change Impacts on Sustainable Maize Production in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review

Maize (Zea mays L.) is one of the commonly grown grain crops and remains a source of staple food and food security for most countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). But climate change threatens agricultural potential in SSA thereby risking food security especially that most maize production is rain-fed in these countries. Thus, numerous studies have examined impacts of climate change on maize production and productivity resulting in several adaption strategies being promoted to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. But to the best of our knowledge, there has not been any studies in literature that provide a review of impacts of climate change on maize production and productivity in SSA. This chapter therefore provides a review of empirical climate change impacts on maize production and its productivity in SSA. We chose SSA because most countries in SSA are underdeveloped and therefore more vulnerable to climate change effects. This is important because this review will provide an easier access of such results for both scholars and policy makers in search of empirical impacts of climate change on maize production and productivity in SSA

Does A Market Systems Approach Revitalize Smallholder Irrigation Schemes? Evidence from Zimbabwe

Smallholder irrigation schemes potentially improve the livelihoods of rural communities in developing countries. However, they face challenges such as infrastructural decline, lack of funding, lack of markets, shortage of water, underutilization of land, and inefficient irrigation systems. In Zimbabwe, the government carried out rehabilitation programs to address these problems but the performance of smallholder irrigation schemes remained poor. These chronic challenges triggered experts to adopt a market systems approach (MSA) to revitalize failing irrigation schemes. Using primary and secondary data sources collected in 2015, this study used a “before” and “after” descriptive assessment approach to determine the effectiveness of the MSA at revitalizing smallholder irrigation schemes in Zimbabwe. We used Mutema Irrigation Scheme as a case study. Results suggest that the MSA leads to improved efficiency of irrigation infrastructure, farm gross margins, willingness to pay irrigation fees and farmers’ standard of living. While this research does not econometrically establish causation of relations between variables involved, our results provide a foundation for future research on the application of the MSA to revitalize underperforming smallholder irrigation schemes in developing countries

The supply-side effects of cannabis legalization

Abstract Objective The purpose of this study is to examine how cannabis legalization and corresponding taxation would affect the supply-side of the cannabis market. Specifically, the study considers various scenarios in which Oklahoma legalizes recreational cannabis for adult use and simulates changes in state-level market sales for other legal states and the average grower profits in Oklahoma. We assume that legalizing recreational cannabis in medical-only states would significantly increase the demand quantity in the legalized states and the local government would levy a significant level of tax on recreational cannabis. These assumptions are based on the post-legalization phenomena in other legalized US states. Method We simulate outcomes in the cannabis industry under the assumption of representative consumers with constant elasticity of substitution demand behavior and profit-maximizing firms with a Cobb-Douglas profit function. All agents are assumed to take exogenous prices as given. We calibrate the model using state-level sales data from 2020 and explore potential policies in Oklahoma and at the federal level. Results We find that, under the scenarios we consider, legalization of recreational cannabis in Oklahoma would lead to a decrease in the quantity of cannabis sold in Oklahoma’s medical cannabis market as well as decreases in the quantity of cannabis sold in other states on average. Furthermore, we find that as the excise tax rate on recreational cannabis in Oklahoma is increased, the demand quantity in recreational cannabis market would decrease while the other markets’ demand quantity would increase on average. As the elasticity of substitution between state-level products increases, the overall demand quantity would increase and the market quantity across states become more sensitive to Oklahoma’s tax policies. This pattern could become starker as the elasticity of substitution between recreational and medical cannabis increases. In terms of profit, heavy taxation and price decrease due to legalization would significantly decrease cannabis producers’ production and profit levels unless the cost reduction strategies complement legalization. Conclusion Based on our results, the legalization of recreational cannabis has the potential to generate tax revenue to fund critical government projects and services. However, such legalization would have to be done carefully because heavy excise taxes would decrease the legal cannabis market demand and growers’ profit, which would incentivize producers and consumers to move to the illicit cannabis market. Policymakers would have to compromise between the levels of interstate transportation and taxation to ensure that cannabis suppliers also realize some profit within the cannabis supply chain

The relation between wheat, soybean, and hemp acreage: a Bayesian time series analysis

Abstract The 2018 United States Farm Bill has opened the possibility for farmers to increase their profits through hemp cultivation. The literature suggests hemp has the potential to replace soybeans in soybean–wheat double-cropping because hemp shares key attributes of soybeans as a rotation crop (profitability, potential as an energy crop, and maintenance of soil fertility). Nonetheless, due to a short history of hemp cultivation in the USA, it is difficult to predict a time series relationship between hemp, soybean, and wheat through conventional approaches. In this article, we use Bayesian time series models and data from Statistics Canada and the Alberta Agricultural and Rural Development Department to examine a time series relationship between hemp, wheat, and soybean acreage and therefore predict farmers’ decision when hemp is a legal alternative agricultural commodity. Our results show evidence of complementary and substitution relationships for hemp–wheat and hemp–soybean, respectively. In addition, the results indicate a potential of hemp monoculture as a positive response to self-positive shock on hemp acreage that lasts for years

Sustaining agricultural economies: regional economic impacts of biochar production from waste orchard biomass in California's Central Valley

Abstract: The prominent role of agriculture in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has increased global interest in biochar. This carbonaceous biomass product has emerging efficacy for GHG emissions reduction. While a growing body of literature indicates positive economic impacts of biomass-related products, scant evidence exists about the potential regional economic impacts of biochar production. Since biochar is a new industry and there is no North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code for biochar, we modified the available industries in the IMPLAN database to estimate the direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts of six potential biochar pricing and production opportunities in Central Valley, California. Results suggest that depending on the biochar price and conversion rates, biochar would create between 16.56 and 17.69 new full- and part-time jobs per year that would contribute between $1.2 and$5.75 million per year to labor income. Biochar production would add to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) about $106,295 ($5.2 million) per year with a conversion rate of 15% (35%) and a biochar price of $280 ($2,512) per metric ton. Similarly, biochar’s impacts on gross output would be positive, regardless of the biochar conversion rate and price, which suggests the need for more investment in the sector. We find that all regions would benefit in terms of employment, labor compensation, value addition, and gross output though Madera County would have the least economic returns. Meanwhile, Fresno County with the most biomass would have the most economic impacts, suggesting that policy should be directed at encouraging biomass production and marketing in areas with the most biomass

“Are They Aware, and Why?” Bayesian Analysis of Predictors of Smallholder Farmers’ Awareness of Climate Change and Its Risks to Agriculture

While climate change threatens global food security, health, and nutrition outcomes, Africa is more vulnerable because its economies largely depend on rain-fed agriculture. Thus, there is need for agricultural producers in Africa to employ robust adaptive measures that withstand the risks of climate change. However, the success of adaptation measures to climate change primarily depends on the communities’ knowledge or awareness of climate change and its risks. Nonetheless, existing empirical research is still limited to illuminate farmers’ awareness of the climate change problem. This study employs a Bayesian hierarchical logistic model, estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) methods, to empirically determine drivers of smallholder farmers’ awareness of climate change and its risks to agriculture in Zambia. The results suggest that on average, 77% of farmers in Zambia are aware of climate change and its risks to agriculture. We find socio-demographics, climate change information sources, climate change adaptive factors, and climate change impact-related shocks as predictors of the expression of climate change awareness. We suggest that farmers should be given all the necessary information about climate change and its risks to agriculture. Most importantly, the drivers identified can assist policymakers to provide the effective extension and advisory services that would enhance the understanding of climate change among farmers in synergy with appropriate farm-level climate-smart agricultural practices

Bayesian Analysis of Farmers’ Decision to Sell Nothing or Some Output Through Contract Farming

Contract farming (CF) is a pre-output agreement between agricultural producers and buyers. CF helps to integrate farmers in developing countries to global agricultural value chains (Barrett et al. 2012). But research also shows that value chain intermediary agents acquire superior earnings than farmers. This study employs a Bayesian zero-one-inflated beta regression model to analyzes determinants of farmer’s decision to sell zero or some output in CF

Total factor productivity growth in livestock production in Botswana: what is the role of scale and mix efficiency change in beef production?

It is well established that improving livestock productivity has the potential to boost food security, income, and employment for rural communities. While the technical efficiency of the livestock sector has been extensively studied in both developing and developed countries, few studies have analysed total factor productivity (TFP) and its components (technical change, technical, scale, and mix efficiency changes). To fill this gap this study specifically analyses the TFP growth of 26 beef cattle producing districts in Botswana using the Färe-Primont index. This index does not only allow us to understand how TFP varies amongst the districts but also how it has changed over time (between 2007 and 2014) as well as examining what has been driving that change. We also employ a feasible generalised least squares estimator for panel data to identify sources of productivity and efficiency growth. Results show that livestock TFP increased during the study period, and that this was driven by technological change, whilst efficiency change (TFPE) decreased. Further, we found that the decline in scale-and mix efficiency change (OSME) was largely responsible for the slowdown of TFPE, with a relatively smaller decline in technical efficiency change (OTE) also contributing. Districts with foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks and restricted access to export markets had lower TFP growth whilst proximity to livestock advisory centres (LAC), off-farm income, education and herd size were shown to enhance productivity and efficiency growth

Impacts of interlocked contractual arrangements on dairy farmers’ welfare in Zambia : a robust Bayesian instrumental variable analysis

While contract farming and interlocked contractual arrangements (ICAs) are generally perceived to resolve persistent market failures and improve smallholder farmers' welfare in developing countries, uncertainties remain as to whether these arrangements enhance welfare because of farmers' low marketed volumes and margins. To account for potential selection bias, non-Gaussian and missing data problems, a robust two-stage Bayesian instrumental variable approach is used to determine the impact of dairy farmers' participation in ICAs on household income and milk revenue. Data are from smallholder dairy farmers in Zambia. We find that male household heads, wealth, experience selling to milk collection centres (MCCs), livestock holding, milking parlour ownership, landholding, and access to marketing information positively affect farmers' probability to participate in ICAs. However, increased off-farm income and distance to MCCs limit their participation. While some socioeconomic variables have significant positive effects of affecting ICA participation on household welfare, we find no sufficient evidence of causal effects of ICAs on household incomes and milk revenue among dairy farmers. Thus, while ICAs enhance smallholder farmers' access to markets, they may not address high rural poverty rates in developing countries. We provide some insights by which performance of ICAs in the dairy sector may be improved.African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/ragr202022-08-03hj2022Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Developmen

“Look at Me, I Plan to Quit Smoking”: Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Adolescent Smokers’ Intention to Quit Smoking

The tobacco epidemic is one of the most prominent public health threats the world has ever faced. Public health policy that seeks to limit the problem may have to target not only the price of tobacco but also the initiation stage in a smoker’s life—the adolescent stage. Most research on teen smoking focuses on initiation and other stories. Moreover, what determines the desire to quit smoking among teens is not well understood, even though planning to quit smoking is an important stage toward successful cessation. This research contributes to healthcare literature by using Bayesian hierarchical techniques, estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and its extension, the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS), to empirically identify what drives the intention to quit smoking among teen smokers in Zambia. Results suggest that, among the junior secondary school-going adolescent smokers in Zambia, about 63% have plans to quit smoking. We find socio-demographic characteristics and several tobacco-smoking-related factors as salient drivers of adolescent smokers’ plans to quit smoking. For policymaking, we recommend that school-going teen smokers should have access to smoking cessation aids to help them quit smoking. Most importantly, increased awareness of dangers of smoking, advice by health professionals, stringent public policies on smoking, as well as parental guidance could be useful to help adolescent smokers realize their quitting plans