Foreland basins: lithospheric flexure, plate strength and regional stratigraphy

Foreland basin subsidence through time is reproduced in this study, as the flexure of an elastic beam in an inviscid fluid under the vertical stress, caused by discrete-distributed loads. Thus, seismostratigraphic data from the Timor Sea peripheral foreland basin, in northwestern Australia, and the Putumayo retroarc foreland basin in the Colombian Andes, are forward modeled, at chronostratigraphic intervals, to assess the evolving geodynamic conditions of the basins. Results show that the accommodation in foreland basins varies as the depositional basement is vertically adjusted according to the regionally isostatic compensation of the lithosphere. Distributed tectonic (thrust belts) and sedimentary loads that act independently but consecutively during tectono-stratigraphic events, throughout the evolution of foreland basins, control the deflection of the plate that forms the foredeep of these depocenters. Accordingly, the loads limit the amount and distribution of available space for sedimentation. Results also reduce the role of eustasy to only 2 to 6% of the total accommodation, even in marine foreland depocenters. The strength of the plate remains invariable during the evolution of the basin at time scales of 106 to 107 m.y. Asymmetrical flexure, produced by oblique plate convergence, induces diachronuous and local marine cycles at basin scale (100’s of km). Stratigraphic development of non-marine foreland basins is more likely to respond to the evolution of the equilibrium-profile during basin history

Seismic Data, Photographic Images and Physical Modeling of Volcanic Plumes as a Tool for Monitoring the Activity of Nevado del Ruiz Volcano, Colombia

Quantification of volcanic plume parameters is a fundamental task to characterize the behavior of an active volcano. The volcanic plume mass, flow rate and ash injection were determined from seismic data, in addition to photographic images and integration of scaling laws of several volcanic plume models, for the period from 1985 to 2017 for the Nevado del Ruiz Volcano (NRV), Colombia. With these parameters we quantified the ash volume emitted during this period and established a relationship between seismicity and the volcanic plume parameters. The results revealed a decrease of approximately two orders of magnitude in the volume of ash plumes from the November 13, 1985, eruption (0.12 km3) to the September 1, 1989, eruption (1.43 × 10−3 km3). This pattern continued for the June 30, 2012, eruption and 2015–2017 eruptive cycle, with volumes five times smaller than that observed in 1989. The results also exhibited a correlation between the radiated seismic energy (RSE) of the volcanic tremor and ash load for higher (>1 km) and longer-duration (>240 s) plumes. It was possible to calculate a minimum value of ash load based on RSE release and reduced displacement (RD, a means of normalizing volcanic tremors to a common scale) of volcanic tremor signals associated with the eruptions for the period 2015-2017. Moreover, changes in the volume of the ash plume were correlated with changes in the RD and RSE associated with different stages of volcanic activity. These findings can be used as a tool for monitoring the NRV. The continuously decreasing ash plume volumes from 1985 to 2017 suggest a common volcanic cycle that is almost ending. On the other hand, the evidence of new magmatic input in 2007 might suggest that a new volcanic cycle started on that date and is still in the process of ascending magma. It is likely that in the near future surface evidence of the new cycle will be observed at the NRV

Risk factors and prevalence of osteoporosis in premenopausal women from poor economic backgrounds in Colombia

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of osteoporosis in premenopausal women along with associated risk factors has not been well elucidated. Recent studies have shown that poverty is a risk factor for osteoporosis. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of osteoporosis and its risk factors in a group of premenopausal women of poor economic background in Colombia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study comprised 1483 women between 35 and 53 years of age with at least one risk factor for osteoporosis. Demographic characteristics, reproductive factors, comorbidities, and risk factors for osteoporosis were evaluated. Lumbar vertebrae (L2–L4) and the femur neck were assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. RESULTS: Of the 1483 patients, 1443 (97.3%) had at least one risk factor for osteoporosis and 40 (2.7%) had no risk factors. Patients with one risk factor were referred to have a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scan, which 795 women completed. Osteopenia was found in 30.5% and osteoporosis in 4.8% of these women. The majority of these women were homemakers, and 18.5% of the patients with osteoporosis were also illiterate (P < 0.001). The risk factors identified in this population were: hypothyroidism (odds ratio [OR] = 5.19, 95% confience interval [CI]:1.6–16), age over 45 years old (OR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.0–1.2), a history of malnutrition or low birth weight (OR = 2.35, 95% CI: 1.0–5.2), or early-onset menopause (OR = 3.4, 95% CI: 1.6–7.2). CONCLUSION: Premenopausal Colombian women from impoverished areas showed increased rates of osteopenia and osteoporosis compared with the data described in the current literature. Hypothyroidism was an outstanding risk factor in Colombian premenopausal women with osteoporosis. This shows the influence of poverty and other risk factors on the onset of osteoporosis in women aged 35–53 years

Multiobjective Optimization of Public Health Service Delivery Networks

Providing an effective health service as a state is equivalent to giving life. Health services, whose pillar is to optimize the supply chain with public policies based on equity, are equal to providing life. Identifying all the variables and characteristics of the services allows the development of a multiobjective model to represent a public health services network. A case of the National Public Network of Colombia has been analyzed, minimizing costs and contributing to the decision making process. In this paper, a multiobjective approach to optimize the National Public Network in Colombia has been proposed. The proposed scheme combines mathematical techniques with managerial aspects related to public network health. Thus, we identify the distribution of services by the municipality to minimize the total cost and maximize coverage. The opening of services is suggested according to the demanding complexity and transport of patients between institutions. The results contrast with the current hospital services of Valle del Cauca in Colombia. The proposed scheme results show a reduction in the transfer of patients with a minimum increase in the costs of hospital services. The service proposal is based on improving access and quality in the provision of services, avoiding du- plication of supply, and generating an impact on the sustainability of the network of Valle del Cauca

Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum Infection in Rainy Season, Artibonite Valley, Haiti, 2006

We conducted a population-based survey to estimate the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection among persons older than 1 month in the Artibonite Valley of Haiti during the high malaria transmission season in 2006. Results from PCR for 714 persons showed a prevalence of 3.1% for P. falciparum infection

Impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 countries.

BACKGROUND: Childhood immunisation services have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. WHO recommends considering outbreak risk using epidemiological criteria when deciding whether to conduct preventive vaccination campaigns during the pandemic. METHODS: We used two to three models per infection to estimate the health impact of 50% reduced routine vaccination coverage in 2020 and delay of campaign vaccination from 2020 to 2021 for measles vaccination in Bangladesh, Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Sudan, for meningococcal A vaccination in Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, and for yellow fever vaccination in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, and Nigeria. Our counterfactual comparative scenario was sustaining immunisation services at coverage projections made prior to COVID-19 (i.e. without any disruption). RESULTS: Reduced routine vaccination coverage in 2020 without catch-up vaccination may lead to an increase in measles and yellow fever disease burden in the modelled countries. Delaying planned campaigns in Ethiopia and Nigeria by a year may significantly increase the risk of measles outbreaks (both countries did complete their supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) planned for 2020). For yellow fever vaccination, delay in campaigns leads to a potential disease burden rise of >1 death per 100,000 people per year until the campaigns are implemented. For meningococcal A vaccination, short-term disruptions in 2020 are unlikely to have a significant impact due to the persistence of direct and indirect benefits from past introductory campaigns of the 1- to 29-year-old population, bolstered by inclusion of the vaccine into the routine immunisation schedule accompanied by further catch-up campaigns. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of COVID-19-related disruption to vaccination programs varies between infections and countries. Planning and implementation of campaigns should consider country and infection-specific epidemiological factors and local immunity gaps worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic when prioritising vaccines and strategies for catch-up vaccination. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world.

BackgroundVaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries.MethodsTwenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios.ResultsWe estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases.ConclusionsThis study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.FundingVIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication

NOS1AP is a novel molecular target and critical factor in TDP-43 pathology

Cappelli et al. reported that Nitric Oxide Synthase 1 Adaptor Protein is a co-regulated transcript of the TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa, reduced in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and frontotemporal lobar degeneration patients with TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa pathology. Overall, their results highlight Nitric Oxide Synthase 1 Adaptor Protein as a novel druggable disease-relevant gene in TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa-related proteinopathies.Many lines of evidence have highlighted the role played by heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoproteins in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. In this study, we have aimed to identify transcripts co-regulated by TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa and highly conserved heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoproteins which have been previously shown to regulate TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa toxicity (deleted in azoospermia-associated protein 1, heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoprotein -Q, -D, -K and -U). Using the transcriptome analyses, we have uncovered that Nitric Oxide Synthase 1 Adaptor Protein mRNA is a direct TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa target, and in flies, its modulation alone can rescue TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa pathology. In primary mouse cortical neurons, we show that TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa mediated downregulation of Nitric Oxide Synthase 1 Adaptor Protein expression strongly affects the NMDA-receptor signalling pathway. In human patients, the downregulation of Nitric Oxide Synthase 1 Adaptor Protein mRNA strongly correlates with TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa proteinopathy as measured by cryptic Stathmin-2 and Unc-13 homolog A cryptic exon inclusion. Overall, our results demonstrate that Nitric Oxide Synthase 1 Adaptor Protein may represent a novel disease-relevant gene, potentially suitable for the development of new therapeutic strategies