The Role of Relative Price Volatility in the Efficiency of Investment Allocation

This paper estimates the impact of relative price volatility on sector-level investment allocation using a panel of 65 countries with data for 26 manufacturing industries over the period 1985-2003. Results indicate that volatility distorts efficient investment allocation in that investment is not necessarily devoted to relatively more productive sectors, especially in emerging market economies that are highly exposed and may lack the necessary institutions to deal with it successfully. This is evidence in support of theories suggesting that relative price volatility provides incentives for entrepreneurs to adopt more “malleable” but less productive production technologies, enabling them to accommodate more easily abrupt and frequent changes in relative prices, but at the cost of using less productive technologies.Sector-level TFP, Relative price volatility, Investment allocation, Financial crises, Emerging markets, Malleable technologies

Essays on Macroeconomics and International Finance

My doctoral research contributes to the fields of macroeconomics and international finance. Within macroeconomics, I have explored the role of financial frictions in shaping macroeconomic outcomes following a recession. I have studied the dissonance between the rapid improvement in financial conditions and the sluggish recovery in investment observed in the aftermath of the Great Recession. In related research I also analyze the fast improvement in financial conditions and analyze the existence of a positive feedback between asset prices and leverage through the lens of liquidity shocks. Within international finance, I have an empirical and theoretical interest in the analysis of capital flows. My research in this area has focused on the role of domestic investors in preventing economies from experiencing the largely-documented pervasive effects of net sudden stops in capital flows, and its determinants. Chapter 1. The rapid improvement in financial conditions and the sluggish recovery of physical investment in the aftermath of the Great Recession are difficult to reconcile with the predictions of existing models that link impaired access to credit and investment. I propose a tractable model that solves this puzzle by exploiting the role of customer markets in shaping the persistent effects of financial shocks on investment decisions. In my model, firms react to a negative financial shock by reducing expenditures in sales-related activities and increasing prices to restore internal liquidity, at the expense of customer accumulation. Once financial conditions start reverting to normal levels, the firm postpones investment due to a shortage of customers relative to its existing production capacity and the need to first rebuild its customer base. This mechanism can capture two important features of the data: First, the slow recovery of investment despite improving financial conditions, and second, the positive correlation between financial conditions and investment observed during downturns and the weakening of this correlation observed during upturns. Chapter 2. I assess how the inclusion of complementary sources of liquidity can have sizeable reinforcing effects during a crisis and in its aftermath. In this paper, I allow for the possibility to finance investment projects either by selling existing capital units or by borrowing using the units not sold as collateral. The main characteristic of this model is that capital is heterogeneous and composed by units of different quality, which are only observed by the owner. The asymmetric information on capital quality makes both, the asset prices at which investors can sell their assets and the loan-to-value (i.e. leverage) ratio at which they can borrow to be endogenously determined. The simultaneity in the determination of asset prices and leverage lead to the existence of liquidity spirals. For instance, a negative exogenous shock that reduces leverage creates a fall in the funds available to finance capital purchases (i.e. a decline in demand). It also increases the supply for assets in the market, since entrepreneurs require selling more units to finance the same amount of investment. These two effects create unambiguously a fall in prices. The fall in prices reinforces the initial fall in loan-to-values since lenders expect the quality of units used as collateral to be lower. This mechanism explains why alternative sources of liquidity fall rapidly during downturns, and why liquidity can recover faster during upturns. Chapter 3. This paper, which is joint work with Eduardo Cavallo and Alejandro Izquierdo, explores the determinants behind the decision of domestic investor to adjust their asset position in response to a variation in gross capital inflows and avoid episodes of net sudden stops. We present evidence that while sudden stops in gross inflows are associated with global conditions, domestic factors such as the degree of domestic liability dollarization, economic growth and institutional background are important to prevent these episodes in becoming net sudden stops. We also extend the concept of “Prevented Sudden Stops” and differentiate “Delayed” from “Purely Prevented” episodes. A purely prevented episode is one in which there is not a sudden stop in any of the quarters for which there was a sudden stop in gross inflows. A delayed episode is one in which there is at least one quarter in which there was both a sudden stop in gross inflows and a net sudden stop. We want to analyze how this classification can affect the extent to which economic growth and domestic liability dollarization can still account for the offsetting behavior of domestic investors

Propuesta en Supply Chain Management y Logística en la empresa Deli Sweet

Ilustración 1. Red Estructural de la empresa Deli Sweet. 17 Ilustración 2.Vínculos de proceso de la empresa Deli Sweet. 19 Ilustración 3. Proceso para el cumplimiento Deli Sweet. 26 Ilustración 4. Flujo de manufactura del proceso de fabricación Deli Sweet. 27 Ilustración 5. Administración del flujo de manufactura. 28 Ilustración 6. Administración de las relaciones con el proveedor. 31 Ilustración 7. Procesos Scor Modelo Deli Sweet. 35 Ilustración 8. Macro procesos Deli Sweet 36 Ilustración 9. Plan de fabricar (Make y Make to Stock). 37 Ilustración 10. Gestionar el rendimiento de la cadena de suministro. 41 Ilustración 11. Gestionar Recursos humanos de la cadena de suministro. 41 Ilustración 12. Flujograma información Deli Sweet. 42 Ilustración 13. Diagrama del Producto en Deli Sweet. 43 Ilustración 14. diagrama de flujo de dinero de la empresa Deli Sweet. 44 Ilustración 15. LPI Colombia vs 6 Países año 2016. 46 Ilustración 16. LPI Colombia vs 6 Países Año 2018. 47 Ilustración 17. Elementos fundamentales CONPES 3547. 49 Ilustración 18. Layout actual de la empresa Deli Sweet. 64 Ilustración 19. Layout propuesto para la Empresa Deli Sweet. 66 Ilustración 20. Aspectos fundamentales de un DRP. 73 Ilustración 21. Aspectos fundamentales de un TMS. 75 Ilustración 22. Aspectos fundamentales de las mega tendencias en Supply Chain Management y Logística. 80 Ilustración 23. Formato de recepción de materiales. 91 Ilustración 24. Formato de recepción de materias primas. 92El presente proyecto de grado hace referencia al tema Supply Chain Management y logística, el cual podemos definir como la disciplina que administra los suministros y procesos a través de todas las etapas de un proyecto, producto o negocio entregable. El material comercial tiene un viaje a medida que se mueve de un estado a otro hasta que está listo para ser entregado al cliente o parte interesada. Luego está la logística de llevar el producto terminado de un lugar a otro. Superar estas diversas etapas de manera eficiente requiere control, que es donde interviene la gestión de la cadena de suministro. Las personas son administradas y los suministros también requieren administración. Para este caso se aplica toda la temática relacionada con la cadena de suministro y logística a la empresa Deli Sweet, la cual nos interesó ya que es una pequeña empresa, que se levantó a pulso, ubicada en la cuidad de Bogotá, con ella surgen diversas falencias que se pretenden mejorar a través de esta propuesta, con el fin de que sea más productiva y organizada, donde se planteará una propuesta de red estructural, se mencionan los 8 procesos del Global Supply Chain fórum y su aplicación en la misma, se verá los procesos según enfoque de APICS y su aplicación. Adicionalmente analizamos la posición de Colombia en términos de logística según informe del banco mundial, se propone un modelo de gestión de inventarios para la empresa, con el fin de mejorar su calidad de tiempo y maximizar su rentabilidad, se hará la propuesta de un LAYOUT o diseño para el almacén o centro de distribución, además de ello, se identifica los modos y medios de transporte utilizados por la empresa, de tal manera que esta permita al grupo de trabajo realizar una propuesta de una estrategia de aprovisionamiento, asimismo se identifica los beneficios al implementar estrategias del DRP y TMS.This degree project refers to the topic Supply Chain Management and logistics, which we can define as the discipline that manages supplies and processes through all stages of a project, product or deliverable business. Commercial material has a journey as it moves from state to state until it is ready to be delivered to the customer or stakeholder. Then there is the logistics of getting the finished product from one place to another. Getting through these various stages efficiently requires control, which is where supply chain management comes in. People are managed and supplies also require management. For this case, the entire theme related to the supply chain and logistics is applied to the Deli Sweet company, which interested us since it is a small company, which was raised by hand, located in the city of Bogotá, with it various shortcomings that are intended to be improved through this proposal, in order to make it more productive and organized, where a structural network proposal will be proposed, the 8 processes of the Global Supply Chain forum are mentioned and their application in it, it will be seen the processes according to the APICS approach and its application. Additionally, we analyze the position of Colombia in terms of logistics according to the world bank report, an inventory management model is proposed for the company, in order to improve its quality of time and maximize its profitability, a proposal will be made of a LAYOUT or design for the warehouse or distribution center, in addition to this, the modes and means of transport used by the company are identified, in such a way that this allows the work group to make a proposal for a supply strategy, and the benefits are also identified when implementing DRP and TMS strategies

NeBula: Team CoSTAR's robotic autonomy solution that won phase II of DARPA Subterranean Challenge

This paper presents and discusses algorithms, hardware, and software architecture developed by the TEAM CoSTAR (Collaborative SubTerranean Autonomous Robots), competing in the DARPA Subterranean Challenge. Specifically, it presents the techniques utilized within the Tunnel (2019) and Urban (2020) competitions, where CoSTAR achieved second and first place, respectively. We also discuss CoSTAR¿s demonstrations in Martian-analog surface and subsurface (lava tubes) exploration. The paper introduces our autonomy solution, referred to as NeBula (Networked Belief-aware Perceptual Autonomy). NeBula is an uncertainty-aware framework that aims at enabling resilient and modular autonomy solutions by performing reasoning and decision making in the belief space (space of probability distributions over the robot and world states). We discuss various components of the NeBula framework, including (i) geometric and semantic environment mapping, (ii) a multi-modal positioning system, (iii) traversability analysis and local planning, (iv) global motion planning and exploration behavior, (v) risk-aware mission planning, (vi) networking and decentralized reasoning, and (vii) learning-enabled adaptation. We discuss the performance of NeBula on several robot types (e.g., wheeled, legged, flying), in various environments. We discuss the specific results and lessons learned from fielding this solution in the challenging courses of the DARPA Subterranean Challenge competition.The work is partially supported by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004), and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)

A bio-energetic model of cyclist for enhancing pedelec systems

International audienceThe paper presents a whole-body bio-energetic model of a cyclist which includes the mechanical dynamics of the bike. This model could be used to solve control-design problems for pedelec systems. The behavior of some physiological variables during cycling is reproduced by keeping an energy aware transfer flow. The modeling approach considers three main levels: i) physiological, ii) bio-mechanical and iii) pure-mechanical. Physical laws of energy/mass conservation were applied to simulate the ways in which energy is stored, transferred and dissipated at each level. A simulation example shows a scenario of a physiological test

SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Interest and Concern naming scheme conducive for global discourse [comment].

International audienc