Evaluation of supply control options for beef

End of project reportThe incomes of Irish cattle farmers benefited greatly from the reform of the CAP for beef and cereals in 1992 and more recently under Agenda 2000. In both of these reforms the institutional support prices were reduced and direct payments (DPs) were used to compensate farmers for the price reduction

Delineating Daily Activity Spaces in Rural Areas

The new relational geography challenges notions of inherently coherent integrated 'territory-based' systems of relations. This paper uses network methods and correspondence analysis to try and describe some of the spatial differentiation and relational dynamics at different rural sites. The particular focus is on delineating the daily activity spaces of households and to describe the roles of local centres. The methods used do help us capture some aspects of the diffferences that exist in work, shoping and social relations and the spaces that these relations fill. The implications of the findings for local planning and admnistration are also discussed

Stochastic parameterization: uncertainties from convection

In 2005, the ECMWF held a workshop on stochastic parameterisation, at which the convection was seen as being a key issue. That much is clear from the working group reports and particularly the statement from working group 1 that “it is clear that a stochastic convection scheme is desirable”. The present note aims to consider our current status in comparison with some of the issues raised and hopes expressed in that working group report

Robust study design is as important on the social as it is on the ecological side of applied ecological research

1. The effective management of natural systems often requires resource users to change their behaviour. This has led to many applied ecologists using research tools developed by social scientists. This comes with challenges as ecologists often lack relevant disciplinary training. 2. Using an example from the current issue of Journal of Applied Ecology that investigated how conservation interventions influenced conservation outcomes, we discuss the challenges of conducting interdisciplinary science. We illustrate our points using examples from research investigating the role of law enforcement and outreach activities in limiting illegal poaching and the application of the theory of planned behaviour to conservation. 3. Synthesis and applications. Interdisciplinary research requires equal rigour to be applied to ecological and social aspects. Researchers with a natural science background need to access expertise and training in the principles of social science research design and methodology, in order to permit a more balanced interdisciplinary understanding of social–ecological system

Dynamic decision making for situational awareness using drones: Requirements, identification and comparison of decision support methods

Decision makers increasingly operate in real-time information-rich environments, where limited time is available for interpreting data to inform decisions. These environments are driven by static or mobile sensing devices that can provide numerous dynamic data points. A prominent approach in this space is to utilise drones, which can be deployed to gather targeted information. However, deciding how best to deploy available drones is nontrivial, and stands to benefit from decision support aids that plan routes. Such a system must operate under time constraints created by the changing attributes of routes as the situation unfolds. This study describes a dynamic decision support system (DSS) for situational awareness with drones. The system applies Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods within a dynamic genetic algorithm to provide a continuously revised ranking of routes. Five desiderata for dynamic decision support are presented. It is shown how a dynamic DSS can be equipped with declarative specification of preferences (Desiderata 1), dynamic revision of recommendations (Desiderata 2), and high diversity of options (Desiderata 3). The study then compares four MCDM methods, namely the Weighted Product Model (WPM), the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), with regards to how consistently they trade-off between criteria (Desiderata 4) and the stability of results under small changes to criteria values (Desiderata 5). To evaluate the trade-offs between criteria we analyse the smoothness of change in criteria outcomes as criteria weightings increase for each algorithm. The outcomes are calculated by automating the selection of routes in a case study that applies drones to the task of harbour management. The stability of results for the different MCDM methods are compared. Perturbations were applied to sets of routes ranked by each algorithm then each algorithm was reapplied and the magnitude of the changes in ranking was assessed. Overall, TOPSIS was found to be the algorithm which made the most consistent trade-offs between criteria, only under-performing another algorithm with respect to a single criterion. AHP and WPM were the next most consistent algorithms and PROMETHEE was the least consistent algorithm. TOPSIS was also found to be the most stable method under small changes to criteria values. AHP was the second most stable, followed by PROMETHEE and WPM respectively. The results show that TOPSIS achieves the best result for both Desiderata 4 and 5 and consequently the study finds TOPSIS to be an appropriate MCDM method for dynamic decision support.<br/

PIVET rFSH dosing algorithms for individualized controlled ovarian stimulation enables optimized pregnancy productivity rates and avoidance of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome

© 2016 Yovich et al.The first PIVET algorithm for individualized recombinant follicle stimulating hormone (rFSH) dosing in in vitro fertilization, reported in 2012, was based on age and antral follicle count grading with adjustments for anti-Müllerian hormone level, body mass index, day-2 FSH, and smoking history. In 2007, it was enabled by the introduction of a metered rFSH pen allowing small dosage increments of ~8.3 IU per click. In 2011, a second rFSH pen was introduced allowing more precise dosages of 12.5 IU per click, and both pens with their individual algorithms have been applied continuously at our clinic. The objective of this observational study was to validate the PIVET algorithms pertaining to the two rFSH pens with the aim of collecting =15 oocytes and minimizing the risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome. The data set included 2, 822 in vitro fertilization stimulations over a 6-year period until April 2014 applying either of the two individualized dosing algorithms and corresponding pens. The main outcome measures were mean oocytes retrieved and resultant embryos designated for transfer or cryopreservation permitted calculation of oocyte and embryo utilization rates. Ensuing pregnancies were tracked until live births, and live birth productivity rates embracing fresh and frozen transfers were calculated. Overall, the results showed that mean oocyte numbers were 10.0 for all women &lt;40 years with 24% requiring rFSH dosages &lt;150 IU. Applying both specific algorithms in our clinic meant that the starting dose was not altered for 79.1% of patients and for 30.1% of those receiving the very lowest rFSH dosages (=75 IU). Only 0.3% patients were diagnosed with severe ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome, all deemed avoidable due to definable breaches from the protocols. The live birth productivity rates exceeded 50% for women &lt;35 years and was 33.2% for the group aged 35–39 years. Routine use of both algorithms led to only 11.6% of women generating.15 oocytes, significantly lower than recently published data applying conventional dosages (38.2%; P&lt;0.0001). When comparing both specific algorithms to each other, the outcomes were mainly comparable for pregnancy, live birth, and miscarriage rate. However, there were significant differences in relation to number of oocytes retrieved, but the mean for both the algorithms remained well below 15 oocytes. Consequently, application of both these algorithms in our in vitro fertilization clinic allows the use of both the rFSH products, with very similar results, and they can be considered validated on the basis of effectiveness and safety, clearly avoiding ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable

Inter-Country Cost Comparisons in Beef.

End of Project ReportThe purpose of this study was to: • establish the competitiveness of the Irish beef production systems post the 1992 CAP reform • quantify how Irish beef production costs, and cost components, compare with those for the other EU countries • determine the strengths and weaknesses of the Irish production systems

Multi-tiered distributed computing platform

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