An alternative method to the scrambled Halton sequence for removing correlation between standard Halton sequences in high dimensions

Halton sequences were first introduced in the 1960s as an alternative to pseudo-random number sequences, with the aim of providing better coverage of the area of integration and negative correlation in the simulated probabilities between observations. This is needed in order to achieve variance reduction when using simulation to approximate an integral that does not have a closed-form expression. Such integrals arise in many areas of regional science, for example in the evaluation and estimation of certain types of discrete choice models. While the performance of standard Halton sequences is very good in low dimensions, problems with correlation have been observed between sequences generated from higher primes. This can cause serious problems in the estimation of models with high-dimensional integrals (e.g., models of aspects of spatial choice, such as route or location). Various methods have been proposed to deal with this; one of the most prominent solutions is the scrambled Halton sequence, which uses special predetermined permutations of the coefficients used in the construction of the standard sequence. In this paper, we conduct a detailed analysis of the ability of scrambled Halton sequences to remove the problematic correlation that exists between standard Halton sequences for high primes in the two-dimensional space. The analysis shows that although the scrambled sequences exhibit a lower degree of overall correlation than the standard sequences, for some choices of primes, correlation remains at an unacceptably high level. This paper then proposes an alternative method, based on the idea of using randomly shuffled versions of the one-dimensional standard Halton sequences in the construction of multi-dimensional sequences. We show that the new shuffled sequences produce a significantly higher reduction in correlation than the scrambled sequences, without loss of quality of coverage. Another substantial advantage of this new method is that it can, without any modifications, be used for any number of dimensions, while the use of the scrambled sequences requires the a-priori computation of a matrix of permutations, which for high dimensional problems could lead to significant runtime disadvantages. Repeated runs of the shuffling algorithm will also produce different sequences in different runs, which nevertheless maintain the same quality of one-dimensional coverage. This is not at all the case for the scrambled sequences. In view of the clear advantages in its ability to remove correlation, combined with its runtime and generalization advantages, this paper recommends that this new algorithm should be preferred to the scrambled Halton sequences when dealing with high correlation between standard Halton sequences.

Modelling airport and airline choice behaviour with the use of stated preference survey data

The majority of studies of air travel choice behavior make use of revealed preference (RP) data, generally in the form of survey data collected from departing passengers. While the use of RP data has certain methodological advantages over the use of stated preference (SP) data, major issues arise because of the often low quality of the data relating to the un-chosen alternatives, in terms of explanatory variables as well as availability. As such, studies using RP survey data often fail to recover a meaningful fare coefficient, and are generally not able to offer a treatment of the effects of airline allegiance. In this paper, we make use of SP data for airport and airline choice collected in the US in 2001. The analysis retrieves significant effects relating to factors such as airfare, access time, flight time and airline and airport allegiance, illustrating the advantages of SP data in this context. Additionally, the analysis explores the use of non-linear transforms of the explanatory variables, as well as the treatment of continuous variations in choice behavior across respondents

Testing the Waters: California's Local Officials Experiment with New Ways to Engage the Public

This report explores the attitudes of California's local officials toward public participation in local governance. These officials believe that the current models for including the public in local decision making fail to meet the needs of both residents and local officials. Most local officials seek broad-based participation from the public and want to hear more about approaches that have worked elsewhere. Many are already experimenting with more inclusive and deliberative forms of engagement. Overall, this study suggests California's local officials may be ready for newer and more effective ways to engage the public and for stronger collaborations with community-based organizations. The report also includes concrete recommendations for local officials and their institutions, civic leaders and their organizations, and foundations and other funders. The recommendations can help improve public engagement in local governance throughout California and, we hope, beyond

Early postoperative interventional ASD-closure for severe atrial right to left shunt in a neonate with common arterial trunk

Although closure of an atrial septal defect (ASD II) with an occluding device in the first year of life is not a routine procedure, it is a feasible treatment, even in neonates. Case reports on the off-label use of Amplatzer devices have been repeatedly published, but there are no reports on using the Amplatzer Duct Occluder (ADO) to close an atrial septal defect in a neonate. We report on a successful catheter closure of an ASD II with ADO in a severely cyanotic neonate, seven days after surgical repair of common arterial trunk. Due to progressive cyanosis and clinical signs of right ventricular failure, which developed after common arterial trunk repair, the neonate underwent cardiac catheterization. Diastolic filling impairment of the right ventricle (right ventricle hypertrophy, pulmonary regurgitation, and residual right ventricle outflow tract obstruction) was thought to be the cause of impaired right ventricle diastolic filling, resulting in the right-to-left shunt at the atrial level. Under transesophageal echocardiographic guidance, ADO was delivered through a 5 French sheath into the atrial septal defect. Amplatzer duct occluder closed the defect and proved to be stable in position after disconnection. During the procedure, the child was stable and then transferred to the intensive care unit with significantly improved oxygen saturation. This is the first report on placing a duct occluder in the atrial septal position, which is a novel procedure for-small neonates

An analysis of parking behaviour using discrete choice models calibrated on SP datasets

Parking policy is an important component of contemporary travel demand management policies. The effectiveness of many parking policy measures depends on influencing parking type choice, so that understanding the factors affecting these choices is of considerable practical importance. Yet, academic interest in this issue has been, at best, intermittent. This paper reports the results of an analysis of parking choice behaviour, based on a stated preference (SP) dataset, collected in various city centre locations in the UK. The analysis advances the state of the art in the analysis of parking choice behaviour by using a mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) model, capable of accommodating random heterogeneity in travellers’ tastes and potential correlation structure induced by repeated observations being made of the same individuals. The results of the analysis indicate that taste heterogeneity is a major factor in parking type choice. Accommodating this heterogeneity leads to significantly different conclusions regarding the influence of substantive factors such as access, search and egress time and on the treatment of potential fines for illegal parking. It also has important effects on the implied willingness to pay for timesavings and on the distribution of this willingness in the population. Our analysis also reveals important differences in parking behaviour across different journey purposes, and the models reveal an important locational effect, in such that the results of the analysis vary substantively across the three locations used in the SP surveys. Finally, the paper also discusses a number of technical issues related to the specification of taste heterogeneity that are of wider significance in the application of the MMNL model.

Random Covariance Heterogeneity in Discrete Choice Models

The area of discrete choice modelling has developed rapidly in recent years. In particular, continuing refinements of the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) model family have permitted the representation of increasingly complex patterns of substitution and parallel advances in estimation capability have led to the increased use of model forms requiring simulation in estimation and application. One model form especially, namely the Mixed Multinomial Logit (MMNL) model, is being used ever more widely. Aside from allowing for random variations in tastes across decision-makers in a Random Coefficients Logit (RCL) framework, this model additionally allows for the representation of inter-alternative correlation as well as heteroscedasticity in an Error Components Logit (ECL) framework, enabling the model to approximate any Random Utility model arbitrarily closely. While the various developments discussed above have led to gradual gains in modelling flexibility, little effort has gone into the development of model forms allowing for a representation of heterogeneity across respondents in the correlation structure in place between alternatives. Such correlation heterogeneity is however possibly a crucial factor in the variation of choice-making behaviour across decision-makers, given the potential presence of individual-specific terms in the unobserved part of utility of multiple alternatives. To the authors' knowledge, there has so far only been one application of a model allowing for such heterogeneity, by Bhat (1997). In this Covariance NL model, the logsum parameters themselves are a function of socio-demographic attributes of the decision-makers, such that the correlation heterogeneity is explained with the help of these attributes. While the results by Bhat show the presence of statistically significant levels of covariance heterogeneity, the improvements in terms of model performance are almost negligible. While it is possible to interpret this as a lack of covariance heterogeneity in the data, another explanation is possible. It is clearly imaginable that a major part of the covariance heterogeneity cannot be explained in a deterministic fashion, either due to data limitations, or because of the presence of actual random variation, in a situation analogous to the case of random taste heterogeneity that cannot be explained in a deterministic fashion. In this paper, we propose two different ways of modelling such random variations in the correlation structure across individuals. The first approach is based on the use of an underlying GEV structure, while the second approach consists of an extension of the ECL model. In the former approach, the choice probabilities are given by integration of underlying GEV choice probabilities, such as Nested Logit, over the assumed distribution of the structural parameters. In the most basic specification, the structural parameters are specified as simple random variables, where appropriate choices of statistical distributions and/or mathematical transforms guarantee that the resulting structural parameters fall into the permissible range of values. Several extensions are then discussed in the paper that allow for a mixture of random and deterministic variations in the correlation structure. In an ECL model, correlation across alternatives is introduced with the help of normally distributed error-terms with a mean of zero that are shared by alternatives that are closer substitutes for each other, with the extent of correlation being determined by the estimates of the standard deviations of the error-components. The extension of this model to a structure allowing for random covariance heterogeneity is again divided into two parts. In the first approach, correlation is assumed to vary purely randomly; this is obtained through simple integration over the distribution of the standard deviations of the error-terms, superseding the integration over the distribution of the error-components with a specific draw for the standard deviations. The second extension is similar to the one used in the GEV case, with the standard deviations being composed of a deterministic term and a random term, either as a pure deviation, or in the form of random coefficients in the parameterisation of the distribution of the standard deviations. We next show that our Covariance GEV (CGEV) model generalises all existing GEV model structures, while the Covariance ECL (CECL) model can theoretically approximate all RUM models arbitrarily closely. Although this also means that the CECL model can closely replicate the behaviour of the CGEV model, there are some differences between the two models, which can be related to the differences in the underlying error-structure of the base models (GEV vs ECL). The CECL model has the advantage of implicitly allowing for heteroscedasticity, although this is also possible with the CGEV model, by adding appropriate error-components, leading to an EC-CGEV model. In terms of estimation, the CECL model has a run-time advantage for basic nesting structures, when the number of error-components, and hence dimensions of integration, is low enough not to counter-act the gains made by being based on a more straightforward integrand (MNL vs advanced GEV). However, in more complicated structures, this advantage disappears, in a situation that is analogous to the case of Mixed GEV models compared to ECL models. A final disadvantage of the CECL model structure comes in the form of an additional set of identification conditions. The paper presents applications of these model structures to both cross-sectional and panel datasets from the field of travel behaviour analysis. The applications illustrate the gains in model performance that can be obtained with our proposed structures when compared to models governed by a homogeneous covariance structure assumption. As expected, the gains in performance are more important in the case of data with repeated observations for the same individual, where the notion of individual-specific substitution patterns applies more directly. The applications also confirm the slight differences between the CGEV and CECL models discussed above. The paper concludes with a discussion of how the two structures can be extended to allow for random taste heterogeneity. The resulting models thus allow for random variations in choice behaviour both in the evaluation of measured attributes C as well as the correlation across alternatives in the unobserved utility terms. This further increases the flexibility of the two model structures, and their potential for analysing complex behaviour in transport and other areas of research.

Cloning crops in a CELSS via tissue culture: Prospects and problems

Micropropagation is currently used to clone fruits, nuts, and vegetables and involves controlling the outgrowth in vitro of basal, axillary, or adventitious buds. Following clonal multiplication, shoots are divided and rooted. This process has greatly reduced space and energy requirements in greenhouses and field nurseries and has increased multiplication rates by greater than 20 fold for some vegetatively propagated crops and breeding lines. Cereal and legume crops can also be cloned by tissue culture through somatic embryogenesis. Somatic embryos can be used to produce 'synthetic seed', which can tolerate desiccation and germinate upon rehydration. Synthetic seed of hybrid wheat, rice, soybean and other crops could be produced in a controlled ecological life support system. Thus, yield advantages of hybreds over inbreds (10 to 20 percent) could be exploited without having to provide additional facilities and energy for parental-line and hybrid seed nurseries

Beyond Business as Usual: Leaders of California's Civic Organizations Seek New Ways to Engage the Public in Local Governance

We asked leaders of California's civic and community-based organizations about their views on the state of public participation in local governance. The following report explores what these civic leaders say is working, what's not, and how public engagement can be improved. Traditional models for including the public in local decision making, these leaders say, fail to meet the needs of both residents and local officials. Most see significant value and potential in more inclusive and deliberative forms of engagement, and many agree local officials are making increasing efforts to include residents more meaningfully. Overall, this research suggests civic and community-based organizations are looking for newer and more effective ways to engage the public and may be ready for stronger collaborations with local government. The report also includes concrete recommendations for local officials and their institutions, civic leaders and their organizations, and foundations and other funders. The recommendations can help improve public engagement in local governance throughout California and, we hope, beyond