Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).Although policymaking in response to the climate change is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions targets developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Results are shown for atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, sea ice cover and temperature change, along with estimates of the odds of achieving particular target levels, and for the global costs of the associated mitigation policy. Comparison with other studies of climate targets are presented as evidence of the value, in understanding the climate challenge, of more complete analysis of uncertainties in human emissions and climate system response.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

Role of aberrant PI3K pathway activation in gallbladder tumorigenesis

The PI3K/AKT pathway governs a plethora of cellular processes, including cell growth, proliferation, and metabolism, in response to growth factors and cytokines. By acting as a unique lipid phosphatase converting phosphatidylinositol-3,4,5,-trisphosphate (PIP3) to phosphatidylinositol-4,5,-bisphosphate (PIP2), phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) acts as the major cellular suppressor of PI3K signaling and AKT activation. Recently, PI3K mutations and loss/mutation of PTEN have been characterized in human gallbladder tumors; whether aberrant PTEN/PI3K pathway plays a causal role in gallbladder carcinogenesis, however, remains unknown. Herein we show that in mice, deregulation of PI3K/AKT signaling is sufficient to transform gallbladder epithelial cells and trigger fully penetrant, highly proliferative gallbladder tumors characterized by high levels of phospho-AKT. Histopathologically, these mouse tumors faithfully resemble human adenomatous gallbladder lesions. The identification of PI3K pathway deregulation as both an early event in the neoplastic transformation of the gallbladder epithelium and a main mechanism of tumor growth in Pten heterozygous and Pten mutant mouse models provides a new framework for studying in vivo the efficacy of target therapies directed against the PI3K pathway, as advanced metastatic tumors are often addicted to “trunkular” mutations

Pyrotechnic Actuator for Retracting Tubes Between MSL Subsystems

An apparatus, denoted the "retractuator" (a contraction of "retracting actuator"), was designed to help ensure clean separation between the cruise stage and the entry-vehicle subsystem of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission. The retractuator or an equivalent mechanism is needed because of tubes that (1) transport a heat-transfer fluid between the stages during flight and (2) are cut immediately prior to separation of the stages retractuator. The role of the retractuator is to retract the tubes, after they are cut and before separation of the subsystem, so that cut ends of the tubes do not damage thermal-protection coats on the entry vehicle and do not contribute to uncertainty of drag and consequent uncertainty in separation velocity

Valuing Climate Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models: The MIT IGSM

http://globalchange.mit.edu/research/publications/reports/allWe discuss a strategy for investigating the impacts of climate change on Earth’s physical, biological and human resources and links to their socio-economic consequences. The features of the integrated global system framework that allows a comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts are described with particular examples of effects on agriculture and human health. We argue that progress requires a careful understanding of the chain of physical changes—global and regional temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification and polar ice melting. We relate those changes to other physical and biological variables that help people understand risks to factors relevant to their daily lives—crop yield, food prices, premature death, flooding or drought events, land use change. Finally, we investigate how societies may adapt, or not, to these changes and how the combination of measures to adapt or to live with losses will affect the economy. Valuation and assessment of market impacts can play an important role, but we must recognize the limits of efforts to value impacts where deep uncertainty does not allow a description of the causal chain of effects that can be described, much less assigned a likelihood. A mixed approach of valuing impacts, evaluating physical and biological effects, and working to better describe uncertainties in the earth system can contribute to the social dialogue needed to achieve consensus—where it is needed—on the level and type of mitigation and adaptation actions that are required.The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) and its economic component used in the analysis, the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, is supported by a consortium of government, industry, and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. (For a complete list of sponsors, see: http://globalchange.mit.edu)

The beginning of time? Evidence for catastrophic drought in Baringo in the early nineteenth century

New developments in the collection of palaeo-data over the past two decades have transformed our understanding of climate and environmental history in eastern Africa. This article utilises instrumental and proxy evidence of historical lake-level fluctuations from Baringo and Bogoria, along with other Rift Valley lakes, to document the timing and magnitude of hydroclimate variability at decadal to century time scales since 1750. These data allow us to construct a record of past climate variation not only for the Baringo basin proper, but also across a sizable portion of central and northern Kenya. This record is then set alongside historical evidence, from oral histories gathered amongst the peoples of northern Kenya and the Rift Valley and from contemporary observations recorded by travellers through the region, to offer a reinterpretation of human activity and its relationship to environmental history in the nineteenth century. The results reveal strong evidence of a catastrophic drought in the early nineteenth century, the effects of which radically alters our historical understanding of the character of settlement, mobility and identity within the Baringo–Bogoria basin

Signal-to-motion artifact ratio versus frequency for impedance pneumography

We measured transthoracic impedance between 12.5 and 185 kHz in nine adults. We used a system with two impedance channels, both simultaneously detecting the real part of impedance at two different frequencies. We used only two electrodes in the midaxillary line, connecting both channels in parallel. The amplitude relation between the two channels was measured for different maneuvers and frequencies. Results show for normal breathing an increase of the signal of 20% and a decrease in motion artifacts from 12.5 to 185 kHz. We conclude that, for the maneuvers studied, it is better to work at higher frequencies than the ones commonly used. Also, we suggest a method to further increase the signal-to-motion artifact ratio based on measurement at two frequencies.Peer Reviewe

Primordial argon isotope fractionation in the atmosphere of Mars measured by the SAM instrument on Curiosity and implications for atmospheric loss

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/102170/1/grl51048.pd

People’s understanding of verbal risk descriptors in patient information leaflets. A cross-sectional national survey of 18 to 65 year olds in England.

IntroductionEvidence suggests the current verbal risk descriptors used to communicate side effect risk in patient information leaflets (PILs) are overestimated.ObjectivesThe aim was to establish how people understand the verbal risk descriptors recommended for use in PILs by the European Commission (EC), and alternative verbal risk descriptors, in the context of mild and severe side effects.MethodsA cross-sectional online survey was carried out by a market research company recruiting participants aged between 18 and 65 years living in England. Data were collected between 18 March and 1 April 2016. Participants were given a hypothetical scenario regarding the risk of mild or severe medication side effects and asked to estimate how many out of 10,000 people would be affected for each of the verbal risk descriptors being tested.ResultsA total of 1003 participants were included in the final sample. The risks conveyed by the EC recommended verbal risk descriptors were greatly overestimated by participants. Two distinct distributions were apparent for participant estimates of side effect risks: those for ‘high risk’ verbal descriptors (e.g. ‘common’, ‘likely’, ‘high chance’) and those for ‘low risk’ verbal descriptors (e.g. ‘uncommon’, ‘unlikely’, ‘low chance’). Within these two groups, the distributions were near to identical regardless of what adverb (e.g. very, high, fair) or adjective (e.g. common, likely, chance) was used. The EC recommended verbal risk descriptors were more likely to be understood in accordance with their intended meanings when describing severe side effects. Very few demographic or psychological factors were consistently associated with how well participants understood the EC recommended verbal risk descriptors.DiscussionThe current verbal risk descriptors used in PILs are ineffective at best and misleading at worst. Discontinuing the use of verbal risk descriptors would limit the likelihood of people overestimating the risk of side effects

Stable isotope analysis provides new information on winter habitat use of declining avian migrants that is relevant to their conservation

Winter habitat use and the magnitude of migratory connectivity are important parameters when assessing drivers of the marked declines in avian migrants. Such information is unavailable for most species. We use a stable isotope approach to assess these factors for three declining African-Eurasian migrants whose winter ecology is poorly known: wood warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix, house martin Delichon urbicum and common swift Apus apus. Spatially segregated breeding wood warbler populations (sampled across a 800 km transect), house martins and common swifts (sampled across a 3,500 km transect) exhibited statistically identical intra-specific carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios in winter grown feathers. Such patterns are compatible with a high degree of migratory connectivity, but could arise if species use isotopically similar resources at different locations. Wood warbler carbon isotope ratios are more depleted than typical for African-Eurasian migrants and are compatible with use of moist lowland forest. The very limited variance in these ratios indicates specialisation on isotopically restricted resources, which may drive the similarity in wood warbler populations' stable isotope ratios and increase susceptibility to environmental change within its wintering grounds. House martins were previously considered to primarily use moist montane forest during the winter, but this seems unlikely given the enriched nature of their carbon isotope ratios. House martins use a narrower isotopic range of resources than the common swift, indicative of increased specialisation or a relatively limited wintering range; both factors could increase house martins' vulnerability to environmental change. The marked variance in isotope ratios within each common swift population contributes to the lack of population specific signatures and indicates that the species is less vulnerable to environmental change in sub-Saharan Africa than our other focal species. Our findings demonstrate how stable isotope research can contribute to understanding avian migrants' winter ecology and conservation status

An Unusual Transmission Spectrum for the Sub-Saturn KELT-11b Suggestive of a Sub-Solar Water Abundance

We present an optical-to-infrared transmission spectrum of the inflated sub-Saturn KELT-11b measured with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 G141 spectroscopic grism, and the Spitzer Space Telescope (Spitzer) at 3.6 $\mu$m, in addition to a Spitzer 4.5 $\mu$m secondary eclipse. The precise HST transmission spectrum notably reveals a low-amplitude water feature with an unusual shape. Based on free retrieval analyses with varying molecular abundances, we find strong evidence for water absorption. Depending on model assumptions, we also find tentative evidence for other absorbers (HCN, TiO, and AlO). The retrieved water abundance is generally $\lesssim 0.1\times$ solar (0.001--0.7$\times$ solar over a range of model assumptions), several orders of magnitude lower than expected from planet formation models based on the solar system metallicity trend. We also consider chemical equilibrium and self-consistent 1D radiative-convective equilibrium model fits and find they too prefer low metallicities ($[M/H] \lesssim -2$, consistent with the free retrieval results). However, all the retrievals should be interpreted with some caution since they either require additional absorbers that are far out of chemical equilibrium to explain the shape of the spectrum or are simply poor fits to the data. Finally, we find the Spitzer secondary eclipse is indicative of full heat redistribution from KELT-11b's dayside to nightside, assuming a clear dayside. These potentially unusual results for KELT-11b's composition are suggestive of new challenges on the horizon for atmosphere and formation models in the face of increasingly precise measurements of exoplanet spectra.Comment: Accepted to The Astronomical Journal. 31 pages, 20 figures, 7 table