Water quality impacts of the mountain pine beetle infestation in the Rocky Mountain west

November 2014.Includes bibliographical references.The Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) is the primary cause of insect-induced mortality in pine forests in western North America where some lodgepole forests have experienced more than 90% tree mortality. The implications of MPB infestation on water resources are particularly important in the Rocky Mountains, which serve as the source-water region for more than 60 million people. Two important potential watershed impacts are changes in the hydrologic cycle and water quality. While impacts on the hydrologic cycle have received some attention, the interconnection between these changes and the impacts of the widespread infestation on water quality are not well understood. This study uses a combination of field sample analysis and modeling based in Rocky Mountain National Park to address two potential MPB-driven effects on water quality: increased metal concentrations with ecotoxicological and human health ramifications and the changes in source water contributions to streamflow with possible implications for metal and carbon transport to downstream drinking water supplies. Previous work from the research team at Colorado School of Mines identified increased potential for disinfection byproduct formation at water treatment plants receiving water from heavily MPB-killed forests. These increases exhibited surprising seasonal trends that suggest that the transport of carbon to streams, and thus the flowpaths of water, may be different in MPB-killed forests. The first question was investigated by sequentially extracting trace metals from soils under trees with vary levels of impact, and using geochemical models to identify important process-level drivers of changes in metal mobility. Laboratory results identify redistribution of metals in soils under beetle-killed trees with greater mobilization potential for cadmium, and increases in zinc and copper, likely related to fluxes from needle leachate. Results also align with geochemical models and identify changes in organic carbon inputs as the primary driver of increased metal mobility. The second questions was addressed using a chemical hydrograph separation approach to partition streamwater into the fractions derived from groundwater, rain, and snow. Results demonstrate that fractional late-summer groundwater contributions from impacted watersheds are approximately 30 ± 15% greater after infestation and when compared with a neighboring watershed that experienced earlier and less-severe attack. Water budget analysis compared to published sap flux and remotely sensing studies reveals that this change is consistent with expected increases in groundwater from loss of transpiration across the watershed. A predictive statistical model (calibrated to observations within and around Rocky Mountain National Park) suggests that dissolved organic carbon concentrations in streams will be higher in areas where tree mortality is higher. Although, a strong statistical correlation was not found with the method used. Ultimately, this study identifies process-level hydrologic and biogeochemical changes that improve understanding of the vulnerability of Rocky Mountain water supplies to MPB outbreaks

The X-ray Remnant of SN1987A

We present high resolution Chandra observations of the remnant of SN1987A in the Large Magellanic Cloud. The high angular resolution of the Chandra X-ray Observatory (CXO) permits us to resolve the X-ray remnant. We find that the remnant is shell-like in morphology, with X-ray peaks associated with some of the optical hot spots seen in HST images. The X-ray light curve has departed from the linear flux increase observed by ROSAT, with a 0.5-2.0 keV luminosity of 1.5 x 10^35 erg/s in January 2000. We set an upper limit of 2.3 x 10^34 ergs/s on the luminosity of any embedded central source (0.5 - 2 keV). We also present a high resolution spectrum, showing that the X-ray emission is thermal in origin and is dominated by highly ionized species of O, Ne, Mg, and Si.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figures, Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Models of X-ray Photoionization in LMC X-4: Slices of a Stellar Wind

We show that the orbital variation in the UV P Cygni lines of the X-ray binary LMC X-4 results when X-rays photoionize nearly the entire region outside of the X-ray shadow of the normal star. We fit models to HST GHRS observations of N V and C IV P Cygni line profiles. Analytic methods assuming a spherically symmetric wind show that the wind velocity law is well-fit by v~(1-1/r)^beta, where beta is likely 1.4-1.6 and definitely <2.5. Escape probability models can fit the observed P Cygni profiles, and provide measurements of the stellar wind parameters. The fits determine Lx/Mdot=2.6+/-0.1 x10^43 erg/s/Msun yr, where Lx is the X-ray luminosity and Mdot is the mass-loss rate of the star. Allowing an inhomogeneous wind improves the fits. IUE spectra show greater P Cygni absorption during the second half of the orbit than during the first. We discuss possible causes of this effect.Comment: 56 pages, 12 figures, to be published in the Astrophysical Journa

Monitoring the Evolution of the X-ray Remnant of SN 1987A

We report on the results of our monitoring program of the remnant of SN 1987A with the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS) on board the {\it Chandra X-ray Observatory}. Two new observations have been performed in AO2, bringing the total to four monitoring observations over the past two years. Over this time period, new techniques for correction of ``Charge Transfer Inefficiency (CTI)'' and for use of charge spreading to provide angular resolution somewhat better than the pixel size of the CCD detector have become available at Penn State. We have processed all four observations using sub-pixel resolution to obtain the highest possible angular resolution, and using our CTI correction software to provide more reliable spectral analysis and flux estimations. The high angular resolution images indicate that the X-ray bright knots are convincingly correlated with the optical spots, primarily at \la1 keV, while higher energy photons are very well correlated with radio images. Our data also provide marginal evidence for radial expansion of the X-ray remnant at a rate of 5200 $\pm$ 2100 km s$^{-1}$. The X-ray flux appears to linearly increase by $\sim$60% over the 18 month period of these observations. The spectrum is dominated by broad complexes of atomic emission lines and can be fit with a simple model of a plane-parallel shock with electron temperatures of $kT$ $\sim$ 2 $-$ 4 keV and a postshock electron density of $n_{e}$ $\sim$ 210 $-$ 420 cm$^{-3}$. The implied 0.5 $-$ 10 keV band luminosity in 2001 April is $\sim$1.3 $\times$ 10$^{35}$ ergs s$^{-1}$; as of that date, we still observe no direct evidence for the central point source, with an upper limit on the {\it observed} luminosity of $L_{X}$ $\sim$ 5.5 $\times$ 10$^{33}$ ergs s$^{-1}$ in the 2 $-$ 10 keV band.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figures (2 color images), Accepted for Ap

HST Spectroscopy of Spot 1 on the Circumstellar Ring of SN 1987A

We present ultraviolet and optical spectra of the first bright spot (PA = 29 degrees) on Supernova 1987A's equatorial circumstellar ring taken with the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph. We interpret this spot as the emission produced by radiative shocks that occur where the supernova blast wave strikes an inward protrusion of the ring. The observed line widths and intensity ratios indicate the presence of radiative shocks with velocities ranging from 100 to 250 km s^-1 entering dense (> 10^4 cm^-3) gas. These observations, and future observations of the development of the spectra and line profiles, provide a unique opportunity to study the hydrodynamics of radiative shocks.Comment: Accepted by ApJL on Aug. 3, 200

The impact of electronic records on patient safety : a qualitative study

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to explore NHS staff perceptions and experiences of the impact on patient safety of introducing a maternity system. METHODS: Qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with 19 members of NHS staff who represented a variety of staff groups (doctors, midwives, health care assistants), staff grades (consultant and midwife grades) and wards within a maternity unit. Participants represented a single maternity unit at a NHS teaching hospital in the North of England. Interviews were conducted during the first 12 months of the system being implemented and were analysed thematically. RESULTS: Participants perceived there to be an elevated risk to patient safety during the system's implementation. The perceived risks were attributed to a range of social and technical factors. For example, poor system design and human error which resulted in an increased potential for missing information and inputting error. CONCLUSIONS: The first 12 months of introducing the maternity system was perceived to and in some cases had already caused actual risk to patient safety. Trusts throughout the NHS are facing increasing pressure to become paperless and should be aware of the potential adverse impacts on patient safety that can occur when introducing electronic systems. Given the potential for increased risk identified, recommendations for further research and for NHS trusts introducing electronic systems are proposed

Latin Hypercube Approach to Estimate Uncertainty in Ground Water Vulnerability

A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability