The Effect of Tropical Cyclones on Climate Change Engagement

Personal experience can influence our attitudes and actions concerning climate change. This paper examines the experience-perception link in relation to tropical cyclones using a distinctly revealed preference approach, mitigating biases of prior research in this area. Specifically, we study how people alter their internet searches related to climate change in response to tropical cyclones. Using data for the United States 2006–2012, results suggest that searches related to climate change increase with a lag in the months following an event. This finding indicates that the people are connecting tropical cyclones to the broader narrative of climate change in the aftermath of an event and there may be a window of opportunity for building public support for policy action

Searching for the determinants of climate change interest

A meaningful CO2 mitigation policy is unlikely at the national level in the United States. What is currently happening and what is much more likely to occur in the future is city and regional level efforts of mitigation and adaptation. This paper aims to understand the geographic and socioeconomic characteristics of metropolitan areas and regions that lead to engagement with the issue of climate change. We use geographically explicit, internet search data from Google to measure information seeking behavior, which we take to translate into engagement, attention and interest. Our spatial hotspot analysis creates a map that potentially could be harnessed by policymakers to gauge mitigation support or adaptation potential. The results of our multivariate analysis suggest that socioeconomic factors are the strongest determinants of search behavior and that climate and geography have little to no impact. With regard to political ideology, we find evidence of a non-linear, inverse-U relationship with maximum search activity occurring in metropolitan areas with a near even political split, suggesting parity may be good for engagement

Prediction of liver disease in patients whose liver function tests have been checked in primary care : model development and validation using population-based observational cohorts

This work was supported by the UK National Health Service Research & Development Programme Health Technology Assessment Programme (project number 03/38/02) and also by the Backett Weir Russell Career Development Fellowship, University of Aberdeen.OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate a clinical prediction model to estimate the risk of liver disease diagnosis following liver function tests (LFTs) and to convert the model to a simplified scoring tool for use in primary care. DESIGN: Population-based observational cohort study of patients in Tayside Scotland identified as having their LFTs performed in primary care and followed for 2 years. Biochemistry data were linked to secondary care, prescriptions and mortality data to ascertain baseline characteristics of the derivation cohort. A separate validation cohort was obtained from 19 general practices across the rest of Scotland to externally validate the final model. SETTING: Primary care, Tayside, Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: Derivation cohort: LFT results from 310 511 patients. After exclusions (including: patients under 16 years, patients having initial LFTs measured in secondary care, bilirubin >35 μmol/L, liver complications within 6 weeks and history of a liver condition), the derivation cohort contained 95 977 patients with no clinically apparent liver condition. Validation cohort: after exclusions, this cohort contained 11 653 patients. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Diagnosis of a liver condition within 2 years. RESULTS: From the derivation cohort (n=95 977), 481 (0.5%) were diagnosed with a liver disease. The model showed good discrimination (C-statistic=0.78). Given the low prevalence of liver disease, the negative predictive values were high. Positive predictive values were low but rose to 20-30% for high-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study successfully developed and validated a clinical prediction model and subsequent scoring tool, the Algorithm for Liver Function Investigations (ALFI), which can predict liver disease risk in patients with no clinically obvious liver disease who had their initial LFTs taken in primary care. ALFI can help general practitioners focus referral on a small subset of patients with higher predicted risk while continuing to address modifiable liver disease risk factors in those at lower risk.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

An Early and Comprehensive Millimetre and Centimetre Wave and X-ray Study of SN 2011dh: a Non-Equipartition Blast Wave Expanding into a Massive Stellar Wind

Only a handful of supernovae (SNe) have been studied in multiwavelengths from the radio to X-rays, starting a few days after the explosion. The early detection and classification of the nearby Type IIb SN 2011dh/PTF 11eon in M51 provides a unique opportunity to conduct such observations. We present detailed data obtained at one of the youngest phase ever of a core-collapse SN (days 3–12 after the explosion) in the radio, millimetre and X-rays; when combined with optical data, this allows us to explore the early evolution of the SN blast wave and its surroundings. Our analysis shows that the expanding SN shock wave does not exhibit equipartition (ϵe/ϵB ∼ 1000), and is expanding into circumstellar material that is consistent with a density profile falling like R−2. Within modelling uncertainties we find an average velocity of the fast parts of the ejecta of 15 000 ± 1800 km s−1, contrary to previous analysis. This velocity places SN 2011dh in an intermediate blast wave regime between the previously defined compact and extended SN Type IIb subtypes. Our results highlight the importance of early (∼1 d) high-frequency observations of future events. Moreover, we show the importance of combined radio/X-ray observations for determining the microphysics ratio ϵe/ϵB

Development of a decision support tool to facilitate primary care management of patients with abnormal liver function tests without clinically apparent liver disease [HTA03/38/02]. Abnormal Liver Function Investigations Evaluation (ALFIE)

Liver function tests (LFTs) are routinely performed in primary care, and are often the gateway to further invasive and/or expensive investigations. Little is known of the consequences in people with an initial abnormal liver function (ALF) test in primary care and with no obvious liver disease. Further investigations may be dangerous for the patient and expensive for Health Services. The aims of this study are to determine the natural history of abnormalities in LFTs before overt liver disease presents in the population and identify those who require minimal further investigations with the potential for reduction in NHS costs

An Early & Comprehensive Millimeter and Centimeter Wave and X-ray Study of Supernova 2011dh: A Non-Equipartition Blastwave Expanding into A Massive Stellar Wind

Only a handful of supernovae (SNe) have been studied in multi-wavelength from radio to X-rays, starting a few days after explosion. The early detection and classification of the nearby type IIb SN2011dh/PTF11eon in M51 provides a unique opportunity to conduct such observations. We present detailed data obtained at the youngest phase ever of a core-collapse supernova (days 3 to 12 after explosion) in the radio, millimeter and X-rays; when combined with optical data, this allows us to explore the early evolution of the SN blast wave and its surroundings. Our analysis shows that the expanding supernova shockwave does not exhibit equipartition (e_e/e_B ~ 1000), and is expanding into circumstellar material that is consistent with a density profile falling like R^-2. Within modeling uncertainties we find an average velocity of the fast parts of the ejecta of 15,000 +/- 1800 km/s, contrary to previous analysis. This velocity places SN 2011dh in an intermediate blast-wave regime between the previously defined compact and extended SN IIb subtypes. Our results highlight the importance of early (~ 1 day) high-frequency observations of future events. Moreover, we show the importance of combined radio/X-ray observations for determining the microphysics ratio e_e/e_B.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Ap

Crop Updates 2006 - Katanning

This session covers sixteen papers from different authors 2006 SEASONAL OUTLOOK, David Stephens and Michael Meuleners, Department of Agriculture Review of climate model summaries reported in the Department of Agriculture’s growing season outlooks, Meredith Fairbanks, Department of Agriculture Farmers commodity outlook 2006, Thomas Schulz, Department of Agriculture Why is salinity such a difficult problem for plant breeders? T J Flowers, TD Colmer, University of Western Australia Matching nitrogen supply to wheat demand in 2005, Narelle Simpson, Ron McTaggart, Wal Anderson, Lionel Martin and Dave Allen, Department of Agriculture Wheat varieties in 2006, Brenda Shackley, Department of Agriculture Performance of dwarf potential milling oat varieties in Western Australian environments, Raj Malik and Kellie Winfield, Department of Agriculture Field pea lessons for 2006, Rodger Beermir, Department of Agriculture Better returns from Durum wheat, Shahahan Miyan, Department of Agriculture Summer weeds can reduce grain yield and protein, Dr. Abul Hashem, Department of Agriculture, Dr Shahab Pathan, Department of Agriculture, Vikki Osten, Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries Management of Summer Weeds, Alex Douglas, Department of Agriculture Frost or Friction, Garren Knell, Steve Curtin, Wade Longmuir, Consult Ag Pty Ltd PROFITING FROM MARGINAL LAND SEMINAR Producing Bio-Diesel and rubber from marginal land?? Dr Henry Brockman, Department of Agriculture SGSL Producer network – on ground implementation of saltbush based pastures, Justin Hardy, Arjen Ryder, John Paul Collins and Jessica Johns, Department of Agriculture Enhancing the profitability of “Edenia” using saltbush and perenials, SGSL Producer case study, John Pepall, Jinka’s Hill LCDC Investment in saltland pastures, Allan Herbert, Department of Agricultur

Prednisolone or pentoxifylline for alcoholic hepatitis

BACKGROUND: Alcoholic hepatitis is a clinical syndrome characterized by jaundice and liver impairment that occurs in patients with a history of heavy and prolonged alcohol use. The short-term mortality among patients with severe disease exceeds 30%. Prednisolone and pentoxifylline are both recommended for the treatment of severe alcoholic hepatitis, but uncertainty about their benefit persists.METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, double-blind, randomized trial with a 2-by-2 factorial design to evaluate the effect of treatment with prednisolone or pentoxifylline. The primary end point was mortality at 28 days. Secondary end points included death or liver transplantation at 90 days and at 1 year. Patients with a clinical diagnosis of alcoholic hepatitis and severe disease were randomly assigned to one of four groups: a group that received a pentoxifylline-matched placebo and a prednisolone-matched placebo, a group that received prednisolone and a pentoxifylline-matched placebo, a group that received pentoxifylline and a prednisolone-matched placebo, or a group that received both prednisolone and pentoxifylline.RESULTS: A total of 1103 patients underwent randomization, and data from 1053 were available for the primary end-point analysis. Mortality at 28 days was 17% (45 of 269 patients) in the placebo-placebo group, 14% (38 of 266 patients) in the prednisolone-placebo group, 19% (50 of 258 patients) in the pentoxifylline-placebo group, and 13% (35 of 260 patients) in the prednisolone-pentoxifylline group. The odds ratio for 28-day mortality with pentoxifylline was 1.07 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77 to 1.49; P=0.69), and that with prednisolone was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.52 to 1.01; P=0.06). At 90 days and at 1 year, there were no significant between-group differences. Serious infections occurred in 13% of the patients treated with prednisolone versus 7% of those who did not receive prednisolone (P=0.002).CONCLUSIONS: Pentoxifylline did not improve survival in patients with alcoholic hepatitis. Prednisolone was associated with a reduction in 28-day mortality that did not reach significance and with no improvement in outcomes at 90 days or 1 year. (Funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment program; STOPAH EudraCT number, 2009-013897-42 , and Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN88782125 ).</p

ASEPTIC:primary antibiotic prophylaxis using co-trimoxazole to prevent SpontanEous bacterial PeritoniTIs in Cirrhosis-study protocol for an interventional randomised controlled trial

Background: Bacterial infection is a major cause of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a serious and common infection in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. Secondary prophylactic antibiotic therapy has been shown to improve outcomes after an episode of SBP but primary prophylaxis to prevent the first episode of SBP remains contentious. The aim of this trial is to assess whether primary antibiotic prophylaxis with co-trimoxazole improves overall survival compared to placebo in adults with cirrhosis and ascites. Methods: The ASEPTIC trial is a multicentre, placebo-controlled, double-blinded, randomised controlled trial (RCT) in England, Scotland, and Wales. Patients aged 18 years and older with cirrhosis and ascites requiring diuretic treatment or paracentesis, and no current or previous episodes of SBP, are eligible, subject to exclusion criteria. The trial aims to recruit 432 patients from at least 30 sites. Patients will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive either oral co-trimoxazole 960 mg or an identical placebo once daily for 18 months, with 6 monthly follow-up visits thereafter (with a maximum possible follow-up period of 48 months, and a minimum of 18 months). The primary outcome is overall survival. Secondary outcomes include the time to the first incidence of SBP, hospital admission rates, incidence of other infections (including Clostridium difficile) and antimicrobial resistance, patients’ health-related quality of life, health and social care resource use, incidence of cirrhosis-related decompensation events, liver transplantation, and treatment-related serious adverse events. Discussion: This trial will investigate the efficacy, safety, and cost-effectiveness of co-trimoxazole for patients with liver cirrhosis and ascites to determine whether this strategy improves clinical outcomes. Given there are no treatments that improve survival in decompensated cirrhosis outside of liver transplant, if the trial has a positive outcome, we anticipate widespread adoption of primary antibiotic prophylaxis. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT043955365. Registered on 18 April 2020. Research ethical approval was granted by the Research Ethics Committee (South Central – Oxford B; REC 19/SC/0311) and the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA)