Assessing Multiple Prior Models of Behaviour under Ambiguity

The recent spate of theoretical models of behaviour under ambiguity can be partitioned into two sets: those involving multiple priors (in which the probabilities of the various events are not known but probabilities can be attached to the various possible values for the probabilities) and those not involving multiple priors. This paper concentrates on the first set and provides an experimental investigation into recently proposed theories. Using an appropriate experimental interface, in which the probabilities on the various possibilities are explicitly stated, we examine the fitted and predictive power of the various theories. We first estimate subject-by-subject, and then we estimateand predict using a mixture model over the contending theories. The individual estimates suggest that 25% of our 149 subjects have behaviour consistent with Expected Utility, 54% with the Smooth Model (of Klibanoff et al, 2005), 12% with Rank Dependent Expected Utility and 9% with the Alpha Model (of Ghirardato et al 2004); these figures are very close to the mixing proportions obtained from the mixture estimates. However, if we classify our subjects through the posterior probabilities (given all the evidence) of each of them being of the various types: using the estimates we get 38%, 19%, 28% and 16% (for EU, Smooth, Rank Dependent and Alpha); while using the predictions 36%, 19%, 33% and 11%. Interestingly the older models (EU and RD) seem to fare relatively better, suggesting that representing ambiguity through multiple priors is perceived by subjects as risk, rather than ambiguityAlpha Model, Ambiguity, Expected Utility, Mixture Models, Rank Dependent Expected Utility, Smooth Model.

A study of the effects of paced audio-rhythm on repetitive motion

"Reprinted from The Journal of Industrial Engineering Volume XVII, Number 3, 1966."The study described was propounded to determine if it is possible to provide a biophysical driving force that will stimulate the operator in repetitive tasks to work at a rhythm that is comfortable, yet more productive than the rhythm he would normally set for himself. Results of tests revealed that the use of paced audio-rhythm can decrease the average cycle time for repetitive tasks and decrease the variance of the cycle times. The writer concludes that the development of actual applications of paced audio-rhythm in the modern industrial work plant may prove a powerful tool for increased productivity for the operators performing highly repetitive tasks

A metafísica de Descartes

Tradução para o português do verbete de John Cottingham sobre a metafísica de Descartes, publicado in: "A Companion to Metaphysics", ed. Kim, Sosa e Rosenkranz (Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2009

Particle Flux in the deep Sargasso Sea : the 35-Year Oceanic Flux Program time series

Author Posting. © The Oceanography Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of The Oceanography Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Oceanography 27, no. 1 (2014): 142–147, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2014.17.The Oceanic Flux Program (OFP) sediment trap time series, the longest running time series of its kind, has continuously measured particle fluxes in the deep Sargasso Sea since 1978. OFP results provided the first direct observation of seasonality in the deep ocean, and they have documented the tight coupling between deep fluxes and upper ocean processes and the intensity of biological reprocessing of sinking flux in the ocean interior. The synergy among OFP and other research programs co-located at the Bermuda time-series site has provided unprecedented opportunities to study the linkages among ocean physics, biology, and chemistry; particle flux generation; and particle recycling in the ocean interior. The OFP time series is beginning to reveal how basin-scale climatic forcing, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, affects the deep particle flux.We gratefully acknowledge the National Science Foundation’s continuous financial support of the Oceanic Flux Program time series for the past 35 years, most recently by NSF grants OCE 1234294 and OCE 0927098

Epidemiology and Impact of Abdominal Oblique Injuries in Major and Minor League Baseball.

BACKGROUND: Oblique injuries are known to be a common cause of time out of play for professional baseball players, and prior work has suggested that injury rates may be on the rise in Major League Baseball (MLB). PURPOSE: To better understand the current incidence of oblique injuries, determine their impact based on time out of play, and to identify common injury patterns that may guide future injury prevention programs. STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive epidemiological study. METHODS: Using the MLB Health and Injury Tracking System, all oblique injuries that resulted in time out of play in MLB and Minor League Baseball (MiLB) during the 2011 to 2015 seasons were identified. Player demographics such as age, position/role, and handedness were included. Injury-specific factors analyzed included the following: date of injury, timing during season, days missed, mechanism, side, treatment, and reinjury status. RESULTS: A total of 996 oblique injuries occurred in 259 (26%) MLB and 737 (74%) MiLB players. Although the injury rate was steady in MiLB, the MLB injury rate declined (P = .037). A total of 22,064 days were missed at a mean rate of 4413 days per season and 22.2 days per injury. The majority of these occurred during batting (n = 455, 46%) or pitching (n = 348, 35%), with pitchers losing 5 days more per injury than batters (P \u3c .001). The leading side was injured in 77% of cases and took 5 days longer to recover from than trailing side injuries (P = .009). Seventy-nine (7.9%) players received either a corticosteroid or platelet-rich plasma injection, and the mean recovery time was 11 days longer compared with those who did not receive an injection (P \u3c .001). CONCLUSION: Although the rate of abdominal oblique injuries is on the decline in MLB, this is not the case for MiLB, and these injuries continue to represent a significant source of time out of play in professional baseball. The vast majority of injuries occur on the lead side, and these injuries result in the greatest amount time out of play. The benefit of injections for the treatment of oblique injuries remains unknown

Inovação social no cooperativismo de crédito: o caso SICOOB CREDIP

Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso apresentado ao Departamento Acadêmico de Ciências Contábeis da Fundação Universidade Federal de Rondônia, campus Professor Francisco Gonçalves Quiles, para obtenção do título de Bacharel em Ciências Contábeis. Orientadora: Prof.ª Dra. Nilza Duarte Aleixo de Oliveira.O cooperativismo alicerçado em seus princípios e valores, em especial o sétimo princípio “interesse pela comunidade” tem como proposta cooperar com o desenvolvimento local, o qual estabelece a todos os ramos de atividades cooperativistas a missão de aplicá-lo. Assim, alguns projetos sociais de iniciativa do cooperativismo de crédito desenvolvem ações que vão além de responsabilidade social e filantropia, promovendo avanços sociais e econômicos significativos para seus beneficiários, que por estas características e amplitude podem ser consideradas como inovação social, tratada na literatura como um mecanismo de mudança social, com o intuito de proporcionar melhoria na qualidade de vida, face aos problemas sociais existentes. Desta forma este trabalho teve como objetivo geral analisar se as práticas sociais desenvolvidas pela Cooperativa de Crédito SICOOB CREDIP podem ser tratadas como inovação social. Para atingir os objetivos desse estudo foi realizada pesquisa exploratória e descritiva, com abordagem qualitativa, os dados foram coletados por meio de entrevista com o uso de roteiro semiestruturado, em visitas in loco, no período de 13 de abril a 02 de maio de 2016. O público-alvo da pesquisa foram os beneficiários dos projetos sociais denominados: Mandionana, Leite Nutritivo, Mulheres de Lenço e Mais Esporte, todos custeado pela cooperativa em estudo, bem como os gestores das organizações vinculadas aos respectivos projetos sociais. Como resultado do estudo identificou-se que os projetos sociais: Mandionana, Leite Nutritivo, Mulheres de Lenço e Mais Esporte, são considerados como inovação social, uma vez que proporcionam ou contribuem com melhorias, tais como: aumento de renda com mais qualidade de vida, educação, superação, apoio econômico, social e psicológico aos seus beneficiários e familiares, vistos que os projetos estão em plena atividade

Lung transplantation in patients 70 years old or older: Have outcomes changed after implementation of the lung allocation score?

ObjectiveThe objective of the present study was to evaluate whether the outcomes of lung transplantation in patients aged 70 years or older have changed after implementation of the lung allocation score in May 2005.MethodsPatients aged 70 years or older undergoing primary lung transplantation from 1995 to 2009 were identified from the United Network for Organ Sharing registry. The primary stratification was the pre-lung allocation score era versus lung allocation score era. Risk-adjusted multivariate Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses were conducted to evaluate the effect of age 70 years or older on 1-year post-transplant mortality compared with a reference cohort of patients aged 60 to 69 years.ResultsOf the overall 15,726 adult lung transplantation patients in the study period, 225 (1.4%) were 70 years old or older and 4634 (29.5%) were 60 to 69 years old. The patients aged 70 years or older were a larger cohort of overall lung transplantation patients in the lung allocation score era compared with before the lung allocation score era (3.1% vs 0.3%, P < .001). In the risk-adjusted Cox analysis, age 70 years or older was a significant risk factor for 1-year post-lung transplantation mortality in the pre-lung allocation score era (hazard ratio, 2.00; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-3.62, P = .02) but not in the lung allocation score era (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-1.46; P = .92). Similarly, Kaplan-Meier 1-year survival was significantly reduced in patients 70 years old or older versus 60 to 69 years old in the pre-lung allocation score era (56.7% vs 76.3%, P = .006) but not in the lung allocation score era (79.0% vs 80.0%, P = .72).ConclusionsRecipients aged 70 years or older were a larger proportion of overall lung transplantation patients after implementation of the lung allocation score. Although associated with significantly increased post-lung transplantation mortality in the pre-lung allocation score era, age 70 years or older is currently associated with outcomes comparable to those of patients aged 60 to 69 years. Therefore, age 70 years or older should not serve as an absolute contraindication to lung transplantation in the lung allocation score era

Hurricanes enhance labile carbon export to the deep ocean

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 46 (2019): 10484–10494, doi:10.1029/2019GL083719.Tropical cyclones (hurricanes) generate intense surface ocean cooling and vertical mixing resulting in nutrient upwelling into the photic zone and episodic phytoplankton blooms. However, their influence on the deep ocean remains unknown. Here we present evidence that hurricanes also impact the ocean's biological pump by enhancing export of labile organic material to the deep ocean. In October 2016, Category 3 Hurricane Nicole passed over the Bermuda Time Series site in the oligotrophic NW Atlantic Ocean. Following Nicole's passage, particulate fluxes of lipids diagnostic of fresh phytodetritus, zooplankton, and microbial biomass increased by 30–300% at 1,500 m depth and 30–800% at 3,200 m depth. Mesopelagic suspended particles following Nicole were also enriched in phytodetrital material and in zooplankton and bacteria lipids, indicating particle disaggregation and a deepwater ecosystem response. Predicted climate‐induced increases in hurricane frequency and/or intensity may significantly alter ocean biogeochemical cycles by increasing the strength of the biological pump.This work and the Oceanic Flux Program time series were supported by the National Science Foundation Chemical Oceanography Program Grant OCE 1536644. The Bermuda Atlantic Time Series and Hydrostation S time series were supported by NSF Grants OCE 1756105 and OCE 1633125, respectively. We acknowledge the contributions of BATS technicians with CTD and pigment analyses. We sincerely thank the officers and crew of R/V Atlantic Explorer (Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences) for their expert assistance on the cruises. The data used in this study are listed in the figures, tables, and references, and are also available in the NSF's Biological and Chemical Oceanography Data Management Office (BCO‐DMO, https://doi.org/10.1575/1912/bco‐dmo.775902.1).2020-02-1