Streamflow and La Niña event relationships in the ENSO-streamflow core areas

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The high index phase of the Southern Oscillation (SO), La Niña, has not been given as much attention as its counterpart, the low index phase of the SO, El Niño. One reason may be related to the fact that many similarities exist among El Niño events but not among La Niña events. ... In this study, we focus on the influences of La Niña phenomena on streamflow anomalies ... to explore the SO-related signal over the United States

Drought frequency analysis for California from observed, synthetic, and proxy data

Drought frequency analysis can be performed with statistical techniques developed for determining recurrence intervals for extreme precipitation and flood events (Linsley et al 1992). The drought analysis method discussed in this paper uses the log-Pearson Type III distribution, which has been widely used in flood frequency research. Some of the difficulties encountered when using this distribution for drought analysis are investigated

Semiempirical down-scaling of GCM output to the local scale for temperature, precipitation, and runoff

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): An empirically derived multiple linear regression model is used to relate a local-scale dependent variable (either temperature, precipitation, or surface runoff) measured at individual gauging stations to six large-scale independent variables (temperature, precipitation, surface runoff, height to the 500-mbar pressure surface, and the zonal and meridional gradient across this surface). ...The area investigated is the western United States. ... The calibration data set is from 1948 through 1988 and includes data from 268 joint temperature and precipitation stations, 152 streamflow stations (which are converted to runoff data), and 24 gridded 500-mbar pressure height nodes

Development and feasibility testing of an education program to improve knowledge and self-care among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander patients with heart failure

INTRODUCTION: There is a 70% higher age-adjusted incidence of heart failure (HF) among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, three times more hospitalisations and twice as many deaths as among non-Aboriginal people. There is a need to develop holistic yet individualised approaches in accord with the values of Aboriginal community health care to support patient education and self-care. The aim of this study was to re-design an existing HF educational resource (Fluid Watchers-Pacific Rim) to be culturally safe for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, working in collaboration with the local community, and to conduct feasibility testing.  METHODS: This study was conducted in two phases and utilised a mixed-methods approach (qualitative and quantitative). Phase 1 used action research methods to develop a culturally safe electronic resource to be provided to Aboriginal HF patients via a tablet computer. An HF expert panel adapted the existing resource to ensure it was evidence-based and contained appropriate language and images that reflects Aboriginal culture. A stakeholder group (which included Aboriginal workers and HF patients, as well as researchers and clinicians) then reviewed the resources, and changes were made accordingly. In Phase 2, the new resource was tested on a sample of Aboriginal HF patients to assess feasibility and acceptability. Patient knowledge, satisfaction and self-care behaviours were measured using a before and after design with validated questionnaires. As this was a pilot test to determine feasibility, no statistical comparisons were made.  RESULTS: Phase 1: Throughout the process of resource development, two main themes emerged from the stakeholder consultation. These were the importance of identity, meaning that it was important to ensure that the resource accurately reflected the local community, with the appropriate clothing, skin tone and voice. The resource was adapted to reflect this, and members of the local community voiced the recordings for the resource. The other theme was comprehension; images were important and all text was converted to the first person and used plain language. Phase 2: Five Aboriginal participants, mean age 61.6±10.0 years, with NYHA Class III and IV heart failure were enrolled. Participants reported a high level of satisfaction with the resource (83.0%). HF knowledge (percentage of correct responses) increased from 48.0±6.7% to 58.0±9.7%, a 20.8% increase, and results of the self-care index indicated that the biggest change was in patient confidence for self-care, with a 95% increase in confidence score (46.7±16.0 to 91.1±11.5). Changes in management and maintenance scores varied between patients.  CONCLUSIONS: By working in collaboration with HF experts, Aboriginal researchers and patients, a culturally safe HF resource has been developed for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander patients. Engaging Aboriginal researchers, capacity-building, and being responsive to local systems and structures enabled this pilot study to be successfully completed with the Aboriginal community and positive participant feedback demonstrated that the methodology used in this study was appropriate and acceptable; participants were able to engage with willingness and confidence

South American streamflow and the extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation

This study investigates the extent of the affect [sic] of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on South American streamflow. The response of South American precipitation and temperature to the extreme phases of ENSO (El Niño and La Niña events) is well documented; but the response of South American hydrology has been barely studied. Such paucity of research contrasts sharply with that available on the response of North American streamflow to ENSO events

Basin-scale water system operations with uncertain future climate conditions: Methodology and case studies

The old and useful paradigm used by water resource engineers, that hydrology in a given place is stationary, and hence it is sufficient to look into the past to plan for the future, does not hold anymore, according to climate change projections. This becomes especially true in snow-dominated regions like California, where not only the magnitude but also the timing of streamflow could be affected by changes in precipitation and temperature. To plan and operate water resources systems at the basin scale, it is necessary to develop new tools that are suited for this nonstationary world. In this paper we develop an optimization algorithm that can be used for different studies related to climate change and water resources management. Three applications of this algorithm are developed for the Merced River basin. The first of these gives an assessment of the climate change effects on the operations of this basin considering an adaptive management strategy embedded in the optimization algorithm. In a second application we explore different long-term adaptation strategies intended to mitigate the effects of climate change. A final application is developed to determine how beneficial it is to build a new reservoir considering explicitly the uncertainty about future climate projections

The 2009-2010 El Nino: Hydrologic relief to U.S. regions

Current forecasts by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are that the Pacific Ocean will experience El Niño conditions in late 2009 and into 2010. These forecasts are similar to past El Niño events in 1972–1973, 1982–1983, 1986–1987, and 2002–2003. Evaluating the hydrologic conditions for these past El Niño events reveals that during these times, surface water supply conditions improved in many parts of the United States, including the Southeast, Midwest, and Southwest. At the same time, the Pacific Northwest and other specific regions of the United States experienced below-average water supply conditions. This is consistent with the long-established linkages between oceanic-atmospheric phenomena, El Niño, and streamflow [e.g., Kahya and Dracup, 1993; Tootle et al., 2005]

Crop Updates 2000 - Lupins

This session covers nineteen papers from different authors: 1.1999 Lupin Highlights, Bill O’Neill, LUPIN PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENTS AND INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT LUPIN ANTHRACNOSE 2. Anthracnose – 1999/2000, Geoff Thomas and Mark Sweetingham, Agriculture Western Australia LUPIN BREEDING AND AGRONOMY 3. The genetic control of mildly restricted branching in narrow-leafed lupin (Lupinus augustifolius L), Kedar Adhikari1,3, Nick Galwey1,3 and Miles Dracup2,3 1Plant Sciences, University of Western Australia 2Agriculture Western Australia 3Cooperative Research Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture, University of Western Australia 4. Genotype x time of sowing interaction in lupins – Mingenew, Bob French, Agriculture Western Australia 5. Genotype x time of sowing interaction in lupins – Wongan Hills, Bob French, Agriculture Western Australia 6. Genetic variation in lupin tolerance to Brown Leaf Spot, Bob French, Agriculture Western Australia 7. Yellow lupin management in Western Australia, Bob French, Agriculture Western Australia APHIDS AND VIRUS CONTROL 8. Forecasting aphid and virus risk in lupins, Debbie Thackray, Jenny Hawkes and Roger Jones, Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture and Agriculture Western Australia 9. When should lupin crops be sprayed for aphids to achieve maximum yield response? Françoise Berlandier, Agriculture Western Australia 10. Yield limiting potential of the new, non-necrotic strain of bean yellow mosaic virus in narrow-leafed lupin, Roger Jones, Yvonne Cheng and Lisa Smith, Crop Improvement Institute, Agriculture Western Australia, and Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture LUPIN NUTRITION 11. Increasing the value of a rotation by applying lime, Chris Gazey and Michael O’Connell, Agriculture Western Australia HERBICIDE TOLERANCE AND WEED CONTROL 12. Herbicide damage does not mean lower yield in Lupins, Peter Carlton, Trials Coordinator, Elders Limited 13. Effect of herbicides Tordonä 75D and Lontrelä, used for eradication of Skeleton Weed, on production of Lupins in following seasons, John R. Peirce and Brad J. Rayner, Agriculture Western Australia 14. Herbicide tolerance of lupins, Terry Piper, Agriculture Western Australia 15. Tanjil lupins will tolerate metribuzin under the right conditions, Peter Newman, Agronomist Elders Limited and Cameron Weeks, Mingenew/Irwin Group LUPIN ESTABLISHMENT 16. A new seed pressing system for ryegrass suppression and healthy lupin establishment, Mohammad Amjad and Glen Riethmuller,Agriculture Western Australia 17. Banded surfactant for better lupin yield on non-wetting sand, Dr Paul Blackwell, Agriculture Western Australia DROUGHT TOLERANCE 18. Drought tolerance of lupin genotypes in Western Australia, Jairo A. Palta1,2,, Neil C. Turner1,2, Robert J. French2,3 ,1CSIRO Plant Industry, Centre for Mediterranean Agricultural Research, 2Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture, University of Western Australia, 3Agriculture Western Australia, 19. Stem carbohydrate in lupins: a possible buffer to maintain seed growth under adverse conditions, Bob French1, Tim Setter2, Jairo Palta3 , 1Agriculture Western Australia, and CLIMA, 2Agriculture Western Australia, 3CSIRO, Floreat Park, and CLIM

Potential of Long-lead Streamflow and Drought Forecasting in California

The research problem studied here is whether regional streamflows can be identified and potentially predicted based on the impact ofEl Nino, La Nina and the Southern Oscillation. The research focused on the following question: Can streamflow and drought in California be predicted by scientifically understanding ENSO and large scale circulation patterns? ENSO is defined as the EI Nino/Southern Oscillation climatic phenomenon. For decades, the prediction of streamflow and drought has intrigued hydrologists; our current research suggests that ENSO strongly affects streamflow and thus could be an important factor in making long range forecasts of streamflow.Researchers have determined that ENSO events have significant worldwide impacts on such events as precipitation, temperature, floods, droughts and wildfires. ENSO is a warm event in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is considered a significant perturbation of the general atmospheric circulation. EI Nifio events have been observed and recorded since 1726. They occur approximately once every 4 years; however, the time interval between successive events varies from 2 to 10 years.The research objective was to identify regions of land that appear to have a coherent and consistent ENSO-related signal. The identification of these regions and the predictions of the onset of an ENSO event could then lead to the prediction of climatic anomalies

Streamflow Prediction Based on El Nino, La Nina and Atmospheric Circulation

The relationship between the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and unimpaired streamflow over the contiguous United States was studied. The ENSO is a warm event in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is considered a significant perturbation of the general atmospheric circulation. EI Nino events have been observed and recorded since 1726. They occur approximately once every 4 years; however, the time interval between successive events varies from 2 to 10 years.ENSO-related events have important consequences for U.S. atmospheric and weather patterns, but the nature of these consequences depends on the type ofEI Nino. In 1941 and 1983, the major ENSOs of this century, heavy rains were experienced in the West and Southwest and the Colorado River basin. However, most ENSO episodes produce dry conditions in these regions (e.g., that of 1986-1987).In these studies there was an identification of regions of land that appear to have strong and consistent ENSO-related streamflow signals. Coherent and significant streamflow responses to ENSO forcing are found in four regions of the United States: the gulf of Mexico, the Northeast, the North Central, and the Pacific Northwest.Streamflows in the Pacific Southwest of the U.S. in relation to the tropical Type 1 EI Nino-Southern Oscillation and La Nina events were specifically studied. The Pacific Southwest streamflow responses to the Type 1 ENSO thermal forcing are characterized by a wet December- July season in the subsequent year of the event. Similarly, a dry February-July season is detected as a period at which the La Nina-streamflow relationship is strong and spatially coherent.Once an ENSO event sets in, a long-range forecasting utility may be available for these regions. The results of this analysis, which are consistent with previous studies on precipitation and temperature, demonstrate the mid-latitude hydrologic response to the tropical ENSO phenomena