Approximate likelihood-based estimation method of multiple-type pathogen interactions: An application to longitudinal pneumococcal carriage data

While the serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae are known to compete during colonization in human hosts, our knowledge of how competition occurs is still incomplete. New insights of pneumococcal between-type competition could be generated from carriage data obtained by molecular-based detection methods, which record more complete sets of serotypes involved in co-carriage than when detection is done by culture. Here, we develop a Bayesian estimation method for inferring between-type interactions from longitudinal data recording the presence/absence of the types at discrete observation times. It allows inference from data containing co-carriage of two or more serotypes, which is often the case when pneumococcal presence is determined by molecular-based methods. The computational burden posed by the increased number of types detected in co-carriage is addressed by approximating the likelihood under a multi-state model with the likelihood of only those trajectories with minimum number of acquisition and clearance events between observation times. The proposed method's performance was validated on simulated data. The estimates of the interaction parameters of acquisition and clearance were unbiased in settings with short sampling intervals between observation times. With less frequent sampling, the estimates of the interaction parameters became more biased, but their ratio, which summarizes the total interaction, remained unbiased. Confounding due to unobserved heterogeneity in exposure could be corrected by including individual-level random effects. In an application to empirical data about pneumococcal carriage in infants, we found new evidence for between-serotype competition in clearance, although the effect size was small

HPV-FRAME: A consensus statement and quality framework for modelled evaluations of HPV-related cancer control.

Intense research activity in HPV modelling over this decade has prompted the development of additional guidelines to those for general modelling. A specific framework is required to address different policy questions and unique complexities of HPV modelling. HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a consensus statement and quality-based framework for epidemiologic and economic HPV models. Its development involved an established process. Reporting standards have been structured according to seven domains reflecting distinct policy questions in HPV and cancer prevention and categorised by relevance to a population or evaluation. Population-relevant domains are: 1) HPV vaccination in pre-adolescent and young adolescent individuals; 2) HPV vaccination in older individuals; 3) targeted vaccination in men who have sex with men; 4) considerations for individuals living with HIV and 5) considerations for low- and middle-income countries. Additional considerations applicable to specific evaluations are: 6) cervical screening or integrated cervical screening and HPV vaccination approaches and 7) alternative vaccine types and alternative dosing schedules. HPV-FRAME aims to promote the development of models in accordance with an explicit framework, to better enable target audiences to understand a model's strength and weaknesses in relation to a specific policy question and ultimately improve the model's contribution to informed decision-making

Sex-Specific Immunization for Sexually Transmitted Infections Such as Human Papillomavirus: Insights from Mathematical Models

Johannes Bogaards and colleagues use mathematical models to investigate whether vaccinating females only, males only, or both sexes is the best way to achieve the most effective reduction in the population prevalence of sexually-transmitted infection

Bivalent Vaccine Effectiveness Against Type-Specific HPV Positivity: Evidence for Cross-Protection Against Oncogenic Types Among Dutch STI Clinic Visitors.

Observational postmarketing studies are important to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE). We estimated VE from the bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine against HPV positivity of vaccine and nonvaccine types in a high-risk population

Human Monoclonal Antibody Combination against SARS Coronavirus: Synergy and Coverage of Escape Mutants

BACKGROUND: Experimental animal data show that protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) infection with human monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) is feasible. For an effective immune prophylaxis in humans, broad coverage of different strains of SARS-CoV and control of potential neutralization escape variants will be required. Combinations of virus-neutralizing, noncompeting mAbs may have these properties. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Human mAb CR3014 has been shown to completely prevent lung pathology and abolish pharyngeal shedding of SARS-CoV in infected ferrets. We generated in vitro SARS-CoV variants escaping neutralization by CR3014, which all had a single P462L mutation in the glycoprotein spike (S) of the escape virus. In vitro experiments confirmed that binding of CR3014 to a recombinant S fragment (amino acid residues 318–510) harboring this mutation was abolished. We therefore screened an antibody-phage library derived from blood of a convalescent SARS patient for antibodies complementary to CR3014. A novel mAb, CR3022, was identified that neutralized CR3014 escape viruses, did not compete with CR3014 for binding to recombinant S1 fragments, and bound to S1 fragments derived from the civet cat SARS-CoV-like strain SZ3. No escape variants could be generated with CR3022. The mixture of both mAbs showed neutralization of SARS-CoV in a synergistic fashion by recognizing different epitopes on the receptor-binding domain. Dose reduction indices of 4.5 and 20.5 were observed for CR3014 and CR3022, respectively, at 100% neutralization. Because enhancement of SARS-CoV infection by subneutralizing antibody concentrations is of concern, we show here that anti-SARS-CoV antibodies do not convert the abortive infection of primary human macrophages by SARS-CoV into a productive one. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of two noncompeting human mAbs CR3014 and CR3022 potentially controls immune escape and extends the breadth of protection. At the same time, synergy between CR3014 and CR3022 may allow for a lower total antibody dose to be administered for passive immune prophylaxis of SARS-CoV infection

Population Impact of Girls-Only Human Papillomavirus 16/18 Vaccination in the Netherlands: Cross-Protective and Second-Order Herd Effects

Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs achieve substantial population-level impact, with effects extending beyond protection of vaccinated individuals. We assessed trends in HPV prevalence up to 8 years postvaccination among men and women in the Netherlands, where bivalent HPV vaccination, targeting HPV types 16/18, has been offered to (pre)adolescent girls since 2009 with moderate vaccination coverage. Methods: We used data from the PASSYON study, a survey initiated in 2009 (prevaccination) and repeated biennially among 16-to 24-year-old visitors of sexual health centers. We studied genital HPV positivity from 2009 to 2017 among women, heterosexual men, and unvaccinated women using Poisson generalized estimating equation models, adjusted for individual-and population-level confounders. Trends were studied for 25 HPV types detected by the SPF10-LiPA25 platform. Results: A total of 6354 women (64.7% self-reported unvaccinated) and 2414 heterosexual men were included. Percentual declines in vaccine types HPV-16/18 were observed for all women (12.6% per year [95% confidence interval {CI}, 10.6-14.5]), heterosexual men (13.0% per year [95% CI, 8.3-17.5]), and unvaccinated women (5.4% per year [95% CI, 2.9-7.8]). We observed significant declines in HPV-31 (all women and heterosexual men), HPV-45 (all women), and in all high-risk HPV types pooled (all women and heterosexual men). Significant increases were observed for HPV-56 (all women) and HPV-52 (unvaccinated women). Conclusions: Our results provide evidence for first-order herd effects among heterosexual men against HPV-16/18 and cross-protective types. Additionally, we show second-order herd effects against vaccine types among unvaccinated women. These results are promising regarding population-level and clinical impact of girls-only bivalent HPV vaccination in a country with moderate vaccine uptake

Who Will Benefit From Expanding HPV Vaccination Programs to Boys?

Indications for human papillomavirus vaccination programs are expanding to boys. However, the rationale behind their inclusion is often not clear. Using a Bayesian synthesis framework and assuming equal vaccine coverage in both sexes, we assessed how the incremental number of cancer cases prevented and life-years gained from boys’ vaccination are distributed between women, heterosexual men, and men who have sex with men (MSM). Below 60% coverage, at least 50% of the gains from boys’ vaccination was attributable to cervical cancer prevention, whereas at 80% coverage, 50% of the gains was attributable to women, 15% to heterosexual men, and 35% to MSM. Above 90% coverage, 85–100% of the gains from boys’ vaccination was attributable to anal and oropharyngeal cancer prevention, mainly in MSM. Sex-neutral vaccination can be advocated on grounds of bolstering herd protection to women and directly protecting men, particularly MSM, with the clinical significance of either argument determined by the coverage

Pricing of HPV vaccines in European tender-based settings.

Vaccine price is one of the most influential parameters in economic evaluations of HPV vaccination programmes. Vaccine tendering is a cost-containment method widely used by national or regional health authorities, but information on tender-based HPV vaccine prices is scarce

Pricing of HPV vaccines in European tender-based settings.

Vaccine price is one of the most influential parameters in economic evaluations of HPV vaccination programmes. Vaccine tendering is a cost-containment method widely used by national or regional health authorities, but information on tender-based HPV vaccine prices is scarce