Disentangling Treatment Effects of Polish Active Labor Market Policies: Evidence from Matched Samples

This paper estimates causal effects of two Polish active labor market policies - Training and Intervention Works - on employment probabilities. Using data from the 18th wave of the Polish Labor Force Survey we discuss three stages of an appropriately designed matching procedure and demonstrate how the method succeeds in balancing relevant covariates. The validity of this approach is illustrated using the estimated propensity score as a summary measure of balance. We implement a conditional difference-in-differences estimator of treatment effects based on individual trinomial sequences of pre-treatment labor market status. Our findings suggest that Training raises employment probability, while Intervention Works seems to lead to a negative treatment effect for men. Furthermore, we find that appropriate subdivision of the matched sample for conditional treatment effect estimation can add considerable insight to the interpretation of results.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39831/3/wp447.pd

Assessing Active Labor Market Policies in Transition Economies

With the beginning of economic reform in the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), open unemployment rapidly reached comparable levels to those in Western economies. Governments in the region reacted to this rise by adopting active labor market policies (ALMP) as an important tool in the fight against unemployment. Before reviewing the evidence on the efficacy of such policies we look at the scope and the rationale of ALMP measures in a transitional context. Since government budgets are very tight in these countries it is important to evaluate ALMP in a rigorous fashion. The paper analyzes macroeconometric and microeconometric methods of program evaluation, as they were applied in transition economies. Both these approaches have a raison d’être and should be understood as complementing. Providing a selective review of the literature, some of the strengths and the pitfalls of the two approaches are highlighted. We also point to the lessons one can draw from the surveyed studies for a better understanding of how active measures affect labor market outcomes in this set of countries

Does Social Security Crowd Out Private Savings?

Imperial chancellor Bismarck’s system of social insurance (with its three pillars health, accident and pension insurance) was an important role model for social security systems across Europe and in the US. How the introduction of the German system changed economic expectations and decisions of the German workforce has not been researched, though. This article tries to close this gap by analyzing the development of Prussian savings banks’ deposits in the late 19th century. The introduction of social security can affect private savings in at least two different ways: on the one hand, it might induce households to reduce their precautionary savings; one the other hand, it might give people a reason to reflect on their financial needs at old age or when sick, thereby increasing their motivation to accumulate private savings. To identify the causal effect of social insurance on private savings in Prussia, we employ a difference-in-difference-like approach. We show that, in our example, social security crowded out private savings considerably

Disentangling Treatment Effects of Active Labor Market Policies: The Role of Labor Force Status Sequences

This paper estimates treatment effects of two active labor market policies – a training program and a wage subsidy scheme – on participants' employment probabilities. The analysis is based on unique data from the 18th wave of the Polish Labor Force Survey containing detailed and extensive individual labor force status histories. We discuss two variants of an exact covariate matching procedure adapted to the specific nature of the data. Our study confirms and reinforces a point raised in recent research (Heckman and Smith 1999, 2004), that pre-treatment labor force status dynamics play a decisive role in determining program participation. We implement a conditional difference-in-differences estimator of treatment effects based on these individual trinomial sequences of pretreatment labor market status. The estimator employs a “moving window” technique that nicely controls for changes in the macroeconomic environment over time. Our findings suggest that training raises individual employment probability, while wage subsidies display negative treatment effects for participants in the Polish case

Discrimination against foreigners: The Wuerttemberg Patent Law in administrative practice

In the second half of the nineteenth century, the patent office of the German state Wuerttemberg strategically discriminated against foreign inventors by charging comparatively high patent fees. We show that this administrative practice was driven by fiscal and protectionist motives

The Challenges of Identifying Significant Epistemic Failure in Science

If one follows the accounts by philosophers of science and the discussions in scientific communities, there can be little doubt that failure is an essential part of scientific practice. It is essential both in the sense of being integral to scientific practice and of being necessary for its overall success. Researchers who create new scientific knowledge face uncertainties about the nature of the problem they are trying to solve, the existence of a solution to that problem, the way in which a solution can be found, and their ability to find such a solution (Gläser, 2007, 247). The existence of these uncertainties means, in turn, that each research process carries the risk of failure

Dibenzazecine compounds with a novel dopamine/5HT(2A )receptor profile and 3D-QSAR analysis

BACKGROUND: Antipsychotics are divided into typical and atypical compounds based on clinical efficacy and side effects. The purpose of this study was to characterize in vitro a series of novel azecine-type compounds at human dopamine D(1)-D(5 )and 5HT(2A )receptors and to assign them to different classes according to their dopamine/5HT(2A )receptor profile. RESULTS: Regardless of using affinity data (pK(i )values at D(1)-D(5 )and 5HT(2A)) or selectivity data (15 log (K(i )ratios)), principal component analysis with azecine-type compounds, haloperidol, and clozapine revealed three groups of dopamine/5HT(2A )ligands: 1) haloperidol; 2) clozapine plus four azecine-type compounds; 3) two hydroxylated dibenzazecines. Reducing the number of K(i )ratios used for principal component analysis from 15 to two (the D(1)/D(2 )and D(2)/5HT(2A )K(i )ratios) obtained the same three groups of compounds. The most potent dibenzazecine clustering in the same group as clozapine was the non-hydroxylated LE410 which shows a slightly different D(2)-like receptor profile (D(2L )> D(3 )> D(4.4)) than clozapine (D(4.4 )> D(2L )> D(3)). The monohydroxylated dibenzacezine LE404 clusters in a separate group from clozapine/LE410 and from haloperidol and shows increased D(1 )selectivity. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, two compounds with a novel dopamine/5HT(2A )receptor profile, LE404 and LE410, with some differences in their respective D(1)/D(2 )receptor affinities including a validated pharmacophore-based 3D-QSAR model for D(1 )antagonists are presented

Active Labor Market Policies in Poland: Human Capital Enhancement, Stigmatization or Benefit Churning?

This paper provides micro-econometric evidence on the effectiveness of Active Labor Market Policies (ALMP) in Poland. We sketch the theoretical framework of matching estimators as a substitute for randomization in labor market programs. Using retrospective data from the 18th wave of the Polish Labor Force Survey we implement a conditional difference-indifferences matching estimator of treatment effects. Treatment and control groups are matched over individual observable characteristics and pre-treatment labor market histories to minimize bias from unobserved heterogeneity. We also require that observations on controls be from the same regional labor market and from an identical phase of the transition cycle. Considering as the outcome a multinomial variable of labor market status, our first important finding suggests that training of men and women has a positive effect on the employment probability. For men public works and intervention works have negative treatment effects, while participat in in intervention works does not affect women's employment probabilities. We attribute the negative treatment effects for men to benefit churning rather than to stigmatization of intervention and public works participants.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39602/3/wp215.pd

Active Labor Market Policies in Poland: Human Capital Enhancement, Stigmatization or Benefit Churning?

This paper provides micro-econometric evidence on the effectiveness of Active Labor Market Policies (ALMP) in Poland. We sketch the theoretical framework of matching estimators as a substitute for randomization in labor market programs. Using retrospective data from the 18th wave of the Polish Labor Force Survey we implement a conditional difference-indifferences matching estimator of treatment effects. Treatment and control groups are matched over individual observable characteristics and pre-treatment labor market histories to minimize bias from unobserved heterogeneity. We also require that observations on controls be from the same regional labor market and from an identical phase of the transition cycle. Considering as the outcome a multinomial variable of labor market status, our first important finding suggests that training of men and women has a positive effect on the employment probability. For men public works and intervention works have negative treatment effects, while participat in in intervention works does not affect women's employment probabilities. We attribute the negative treatment effects for men to benefit churning rather than to stigmatization of intervention and public works participants.