Scientific management of Mediterranean coastal zone: A hybrid ocean forecasting system for oil spill and search and rescue operations

Jordi, Antoni et al.The oil spill from Prestige tanker showed the importance of scientifically based protocols to minimize the impacts on the environment. In this work, we describe a new forecasting system to predict oil spill trajectories and their potential impacts on the coastal zone. The system is formed of three main interconnected modules that address different capabilities: (1) an operational circulation sub-system that includes nested models at different scales, data collection with near-real time assimilation, new tools for initialization or assimilation based on genetic algorithms and feature-oriented strategic sampling; (2) an oil spill coastal sub-system that allows simulation of the trajectories and fate of spilled oil together with evaluation of coastal zone vulnerability using environmental sensitivity indexes; (3) a risk management sub-system for decision support based on GIS technology. The system is applied to the Mediterranean Sea where surface currents are highly variable in space and time, and interactions between local, sub-basin and basin scale increase the non-linear interactions effects which need to be adequately resolved at each one of the intervening scales. Besides the Mediterranean Sea is a complex reduced scale ocean representing a real scientific and technological challenge for operational oceanography and particularly for oil spill response and search and rescue operations. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Peer Reviewe

Clinical validation of risk scoring systems to predict risk of delayed bleeding after EMR of large colorectal lesions

[Background and Aims]: The Endoscopic Resection Group of the Spanish Society of Endoscopy (GSEED-RE) model and the Australian Colonic Endoscopic Resection (ACER) model were proposed to predict delayed bleeding (DB) after EMR of large superficial colorectal lesions, but neither has been validated. We validated and updated these models.[Methods]: A multicenter cohort study was performed in patients with nonpedunculated lesions ≥20 mm removed by EMR. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the GSEED-RE and ACER models. Difficulty performing EMR was subjectively categorized as low, medium, or high. We created a new model, including factors associated with DB in 3 cohort studies.[Results]: DB occurred in 45 of 1034 EMRs (4.5%); it was associated with proximal location (odds ratio [OR], 2.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.31-6.16), antiplatelet agents (OR, 2.51; 95% CI, .99-6.34) or anticoagulants (OR, 4.54; 95% CI, 2.14-9.63), difficulty of EMR (OR, 3.23; 95% CI, 1.41-7.40), and comorbidity (OR, 2.11; 95% CI, .99-4.47). The GSEED-RE and ACER models did not accurately predict DB. Re-estimation and recalibration yielded acceptable results (GSEED-RE area under the curve [AUC], .64 [95% CI, .54-.74]; ACER AUC, .65 [95% CI, .57-.73]). We used lesion size, proximal location, comorbidity, and antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy to generate a new model, the GSEED-RE2, which achieved higher AUC values (.69-.73; 95% CI, .59-.80) and exhibited lower susceptibility to changes among datasets.[Conclusions]: The updated GSEED-RE and ACER models achieved acceptable prediction levels of DB. The GSEED-RE2 model may achieve better prediction results and could be used to guide the management of patients after validation by other external groups. (Clinical trial registration number: NCT 03050333.)Research support for this study was received from “La Caixa/Caja Navarra” Foundation (ID 100010434;project PR15/11100006)

SOCIB: the impact of new marine infrastructures in understanding and forecasting the coastal oceans: some examples from the Balearic Islands in the Mediterranean Sea

New monitoring technologies are being progressively implemented in coastal ocean observatories. As an example, gliders allow high resolution sampling, showing the existence of new features, such as submesoscale eddies with intense vertical motions that significantly affect upper ocean biogeochemical exchanges, an issue of worldwide relevance in a climate change context. SOCIB, is one of such systems, a new facility of facilities (covering from the coast to the open sea, and including among others a nearshore beach monitoring facility, HF radar, gliders and AUV’s, moorings, satellite, drifters and ARGO profilers, modelling), a scientific and technological infrastructure which is providing free, open, quality controlled and timely streams of oceanographic and coastal data and also modelling services. SOCIB takes profit of the strategic position of the Balearic Island at the Atlantic/Mediterranean transition area, one of the ‘hot spots’ of biodiversity in the world’s oceans. As an example of on-going SOCIB operations, since January 2011 sustained glider operations are in place in the Ibiza and Mallorca channels. The data centre is the core of SOCIB. The data management system created for gliders is an example of the new informatics capabilities for real time definition of mission planning, including adaptive sampling and real time monitoring using a Web tool that allows quick visualization and download. This type of new infrastructures, combined with new technologies and careful scientific analysis will allow new ways of international cooperation leading to major science breakthroughs in the very near future and new ways of science based coastal and ocean management.Peer Reviewe

A Fourier-transform path integral formalism to compute dispersion probability distributions in variable ocean environments

Computing the drift of objects and substances by ocean currents is of high relevance in operational oceanography and environmental managing. This problem is usually solved by a probability distribution computed from an ensemble of simulations of a stochastic differential equation. The accuracy of the results depends on the number of simulations considered in the ensemble. An approach based on a path integral formalism is proposed to compute distribution probabilities. The path integral is solved by a novel algorithm involving Fourier transforms. The best performance of this path integral approach versus traditional matrix multiplication and Monte Carlo techniques is demonstrated by comparing results of probability distributions of dispersion in ocean environments with different spatial scales of variability. Results indicate that the new algorithm provides a probability distribution of dispersion with similar accuracy as that obtained by the Monte Carlo approach, but a hundred times faster. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.This work has been supported by the Spanish project REN2003-07787-C02-01, the EU project SIP3-CT-2003-502885, and regional project UGIZCPeer Reviewe

Rapid environmental assessment of marine coastal areas for naval operations using sequential space filling designs

A thorough understanding of environmental variability greatly increases the likelihood of naval mission success. Present-day naval operations are increasingly focused on coastal-littoral waters rather than the open ocean. Historical data records may be sparse or inexistent in these areas. Survey methodologies to rapidly collect data in unknown, dangerous and contested shallow territorial seas are required. This work applies space filling designs to build sampling strategies that can provide accurate estimations of oceanographic fields with a modest navigation time. The design results from sequentially optimizing a cost metrics that combines the benefit of a potential sample location in filling up the holes in space and the cost of visiting that point and collecting a measurement. Optimization is done using a Simulated Annealing approach. The space filling approach has been employed to carry out a rapid environmental assessment of the Bay of Palma de Mallorca, Balearic Islands (Spain). The considered region occupies an extension of 65.18 Km2, being the longest and widest measures 12.4 and 4 km, respectively. The design parameters were a survey time limited to 5 h, a navigation speed of 15 knots and a measuring time of 300 s. The designed survey was physically performed in 4 h and 25 min using the R/V IMEDEA1 equipped with two thermosalinometers at 2 m deep. The environmental characterization shows the existence of a westward temperature gradient with a thin filament of warm waters intruding the centre area of the bay. Results indicate that space filling designs seem adequate to rapidly characterize the environment of a marine region where no prior oceanographic knowledge is available. However, it has been found that this approach is sub-optimal and suffers from the existence of multiple local minima that difficult the optimization process to build the design. © 2009 Elsevier B.V.This work was supported by the Spanish CTM2006-12072 and the Balearic ICZM projectsPeer Reviewe

Mesoscale dynamics of the Balearic Front, integrating glider, ship and satellite data

An intensive observational programme of the Balearic Front, in theWestern Mediterranean Sea, was carried out using conventional (CTDs from a ship) and new technologies (gliders). The strategy consisted of repeated sampling of a section almost perpendicular to the Balearic Current situated to the north of Mallorca Island. This section is coincident with track 773 of the ENVISAT satellite. In this work we present results of missions undertaken in July and September 2007. In July the sampling was designed to collect in-situ data from a ship and a coastal glider, almost simultaneously with the passage of the radar altimeter on board the ENVISAT satellite. In September the sampling was done only by the glider platform, and also simultaneously with the passage of the satellite. The Balearic Frontwas clearly detected by salinity (not temperature), with lower values (37.4 PSU) near the coast that are likely to be related to the input of recent AtlanticWater through the Mallorca Channel. The observed width of the front was about 35-40 km, with a vertical extension of 200 m. It had a significantly different pattern between the July and September samplings, which confirms the high mesoscale variability of this frontal area. Using a reference depth level of 180 mwe have obtained maximum geostrophic velocities of 40-45 cm/s, flowing northeastwards along the north Mallorca coast. These velocity estimates are not sensitive to the test reference level (600 m), indicating that the layer between 200 and 600mdoes not play a key role in the dynamics of the upper layer (200 m). A dynamic height rise from July to September (in 70 days) of about 3-7 cm reflects the seasonal cycle of sea level due mainly to thermosteric expansion of the water column. This gives a rise rate in the range of 1.3-3 cm/month, which is in agreement with previous estimates in the Mediterranean Sea. Absolute dynamic topography from altimetry data reveals good coherence with the dynamic height from the glider data in the area where there are common observations. In September, ENVISAT captured the sharp gradient observed with in-situ data, with mean velocities of about 24 cm/s, but with a smaller variance than the glider due to the largerwavelength of the filter applied to the altimeter data. From the technological point of view the observational experiment has confirmed the feasibility of using a coastal glider to monitor the spatial and low-frequency variability of the coastal ocean. The coastal glider was appropriate in this particular case since the vertical extension of the front only reaches up to 200m. The autonomous platform was shown to be strongly robust, and able to monitor the area even under adverse meteorological conditions. This represents an important achievement, since under the same conditions the CTD sampling from a traditional research vessel would normally have been cancelled. Moreover, this type of platform allows autonomous collection of CTD casts and biogeochemical measurements at high spatial resolutions and at very low costs compared to conventional methods. © 2009 Elsevier B.V.Peer Reviewe

Prevalencia e incidencia de la infección por Toxoplasma Gondii en mujeres en edad fértil en Albacete (2001-2007).

Fundamento: Las estrategias de prevención de la toxoplasmosis congénita deben adaptarse a la epidemiología local de la infección por Toxoplasma gondii. El objetivo de este trabajo fue conocer la prevalencia y la incidencia de la infección por T. gondii en mujeres en edad fértil en Albacete. Métodos: La fuente de información fue la base de datos del Laboratorio de Microbiología del Hospital General de Albacete. Para conocer la prevalencia se revisaron los resultados de las determinaciones de IgG anti-T. gondii en mujeres embarazadas que dieron a luz en el año 2006. Para estimar la incidencia se realizó un estudio longitudinal retrospectivo de mujeres seronegativas con determinaciones de IgG anti-T. gondii repetidas durante al menos un año. Resultados: Estudio de prevalencia: Se estudió a 2.623 mujeres gestantes de las que el 21% fueron seropositivas. La seroprevalencia en mujeres nacidas en España fue del 16% (IC 95% = 14%-17%) y aumentó con la edad desde el 9% en menores de 25 años hasta el 22% en mayores de 34. El 51% (IC95%=46%-56%) de las mujeres inmigrantes fueron seropositivas. Estudio de incidencia: Se estudió a 2.416 mujeres. La mediana del tiempo en riesgo fue de 35 meses. Hubo 5 seroconversiones confirmadas y 3 posibles. La incidencia de seroconversiones fue de 0,7-1,1 por 1.000 mujeres-año. Conclusiones: La prevalencia de la infección por T. gondii en mujeres nacidas en España fue la más baja de las publicadas hasta ahora. La incidencia de la infección en mujeres en edad fértil fue baja